RugbyMan

Shot down in it's prime

2007-01-11T21:26:00.000Z

This is to be the last post on www.rugbyman03.blogspot.com

I am shutting this down and starting up again at www.world-of-rugbyman.blogspot.com

That is all

Guinness Premiership tipping comp - round 13

2007-01-05T23:37:00.000Z

Harlequins 8/15, Bath 15/8
Handicap: Quins -5.5

Sale 6/5, Gloucester 5/6
No Handicap

Bristol 1/5, Northampton 4/1
Handicap: Bristol -12.5

London Irish 5/6, Saracens 6/5
No Handicap

Newcastle 7/4, Leicester 4/7
Handicap: Newcastle +5.5

Wasps 1/7, Worcester 13/2
Handicap: Wasps -13.5

Guinness Premiership Tipping Comp - Round 12

2006-12-31T12:18:00.002Z

Happy New Year everyone.

Leicester 1/3, Saracens 11/4
Handicap: Leicester -9.5

Bath 6/4, Wasps 8/13
Handicap: Bath +3.5

Gloucester 2/7, London Irish 10/3
Handicap: Gloucester -9.5

Harlequins 4/7, Newcastle 13/8
Handicap: Quins -4.5

Northampton 4/9, Worcester 9/4
Handicap: Northampton -7.5

Sale 1/2, Bristol 7/4
Handicap: Sale -5.5

Guinness Premiership Tipping Comp after round 11

2006-12-29T16:16:00.000Z

Half-way through the season now and the standard of tipping has so far been excellent. Sitting at the top of the tree at the half-way mark is .........me! As much a surprise to myself as anyone else, but I still make RugbyNut favourite to be top at the end of the year.

1. RugbyMan £784.98
2. RugbyNut £666.90
3. MWAP £625.77
4. Furelli £555.45
5. Boxman £534.48
6. Big Dunc £508.08
7. Ruck and Roll £398
8. Ace Rothstein £382.15
9. Albion £248.05
10. AH £114.67
11. The Man £42.72
12. Jambojack £40
12. Sparkles £0
13. Wires -£9.09
14. Vickersa -£27.73
15. Oo R Ya £-51.52
16. Waz -£127.27
17. Uncle Jam -£136.36
18. RuckandMaul -£273.74

19. Thatsarighttouch -£328.29

20. Db2 -£625

A high standard overall. £3322.54 in profit after 11 rounds and 330 tips. I make that around 10% profit as a whole. Excellent stuff.

Guinness Premiership Tipping Comp - Round 11

2006-12-26T13:01:00.000Z

Happy Christmas everyone.

Boxing Day Games - all 3pm kick-offs

London Irish 15/8, Leicester 8/15
Handicap: Irish +5.5

Newcastle 5/6, Sale 6/5
No Handicap

Wasps 8/11, Gloucester 6/5
No Handicap

27th December

Bristol 4/11, Bath 11/4
Handicap: Bristol -8.5

Saracens 1/4, Northampton 4/1
Handicap: Saracens -10.5

Worcester 8/11, Quins 11/8
Handicap: No Handicap

Guinness Premiership Tipping Comp - round 10

2006-12-22T13:08:00.000Z

Gloucester 1/6, Newcastle 6/1
Handicap: Gloucester -14.5

Bath 10/11, Sale 11/10
No Handicap

Harlequins 11/10, Saracens 10/11
No Handicap

Leicester 1/9, Bristol 7/1
Handicap: Leicester -15.5

Northampton 15/8, Wasps 8/15
Handicap: Northampton +5.5

Worcester 10/11, London Irish 11/10
No Handicap

Important Dates for 2007

2006-12-20T18:06:00.000Z

3/02/2007
Italy v France
England v Scotland

04/02/2007
Wales v Ireland

February

Super14 Kicks-Off

10/02/2007
England v Italy
Scotland v Wales

11/02/2007
Ireland v France

24/02/2007
Scotland v Italy
Ireland v England
France v Wales

10/03/2007
Scotland v Ireland
Italy v Wales

11/03/2007
England v France

17/03/2007
Italy v Ireland
France v Scotland
Wales v England

30/31 March

Heineken Cup Quarter Finals

20/21/22 April

Heineken Cup Semi Finals

5/6 May
Guinness Premiership Play-Offs

12/13 May
Guinness Premiership Grand Final

May

Super14 Final

19/20 May
Heineken Cup Final

26/05/2007
South Africa v England
Australia v Wales
Argentina v Ireland

02/06/2007
South Africa v England
New Zealand v France
Australia v Wales
Argentina v Ireland

09/06/2007
New Zealand v France
Australia v Fiji
South Africa v Samoa

16/06/2007
New Zealand v Canada
South Africa v Australia

23/06/2007
South Africa v New Zealand

30/06/2007
Australia v New Zealand

07/07/2007
Australia v South Africa

14/07/2007
New Zealand v South Africa

21/07/2007
New Zealand v Australia

04/08/2007
England v Wales

11/08/2007
England v France
Scotland v Ireland

18/08/2007
France v England
Wales v Argentina

24/08/2007
Ireland v Italy

25/08/2007
Wales v France

9th September
The World Cup

Heineken Cup Tipping Comp after round 4

2006-12-17T22:31:00.000Z

It all looks a little bit like this

1st: Big Dunc £649.14
2nd: Alex Hammond £345.46
3rd: Boxman £236.36
4th: Ruck and Roll £112.12
5th: Rugbynut £90.91
6th: Waz £72.73
7th: Ace Rothstein £64.54
8th: The Freshman £61.82
9th: Uncle Jam £31.80
10th: Kerrybhoy -£60.61
11th: Vickersa -£68.18
12th: Bettingonice -£72.73
13th: Stewardsenquirey -£100
14th: Rugbyman -£103.70
15th: Albion -£109.09
16th: MWAP £-217.28
17th: Tomi -£242.57
18th: Furelli £-325.29

£104.67 up overall.

Heineken Cup Tipping Comp - round 4

2006-12-15T15:22:00.000Z

Friday night games:

Ospreys 1/200, Calvisano 100/1
Handicap: Ospreys -42.5

Ulster 2/9, London Irish 9/2
Handicap: Ulster -11.5

Perpignan 4/11, Castres 11/4
Handicap: Perpignan -8.5

Saturday games

Treviso 25/1, Wasps 1/25
Handicap: Treviso +23.5

Toulouse 1/7, Llanelli 7/1
Handicap: Toulouse -14.5

Leicester 1/33, Bourgoin 25/1
Handicap: Leicester -29.5

Northampton 1/250, Parma 100/1
Handicap: Northampton -48.5

Agen evs, Leinster evs
No Handicap

Munster 1/10, Cardiff 10/1
Handicap: Munster -17.5

Sunday

Biarritz 1/50, Borders 33/1
Handicap: Biarritz -32.5

Edinburgh 11/8, Gloucester 8/11
Handicap: Edinburgh -2.5

Sale 11/10, Stade Francais 10/11
No Handicap

You all know the rules by now. Newcomers welcome.

Heineken Cup Tipping Comp after round 3

2006-12-10T20:35:00.000Z

This is how the current table looks, barring the almost certain error or two.

1st: Big Dunc £685.51
2nd: Kerrybhoy £139.39
3rd: Rugbyman £96.30
4th: Bettingonice £90.91
5th: Rugbynut £90.91
6th: Waz £72.73
7th: The Freshman £61.82
8th: Boxman £54.55
9th: Uncle Jam £31.80
10th: Ruck and Roll £30.30
11th: Ace Rothstein -£26.37
12th: Vickersa -£68.18
13th: Stewardsenquirey -£100
14th: Albion -£136.36
15th: Alex Hammond -£154.54
16th: Tomi -£215.29
17th: MWAP £-217.28
18th: Furelli £-331.53

Overall we are up by £131
Not a brilliant record but there are so many games going right down to the wire either outright or on the handicaps that the difference between success and failure here is often just 30 seconds of play or a single point.

Well done to Big Dunc who is flying clear at the top of the overall league as well as this one. Impressive stuff.

The Rules

2006-12-09T13:24:00.000Z

It's been a while since I have gone over the tipping comp rules properly so here we go.

Heineken Cup

1. I will publish the best prices (match and handicap) available on the weekend's matches a few hours before the first game. Selections will be made at these prices only. You are allowed to back the handicap and outright in any one game

2. Over the course of the season you must make a total of 15 selections or more. Failure to do so will mean that you do not qualify for the final table. All selections count towards the overall title (see below).

3. Everything will be worked out from level stakes, an arbitrary figure of £100 per selection, regardless of the price, with one exception: If backing two teams at odds of 2/1 or more you can chose to split your stake in half, £50 on each. This must be clearly stated.

4. Selections should be cleary stated in either the comments section of the relevant post (i.e. this one, don't forget to sign) or on the betfair forum thread that I will start when the prices are ready.

5. Draws are counted as void due to the complications inherent in this unlikely event. All handicaps will be to half points to avoid similar problems. All handicaps are 10/11.

6. Any selections made slightly after kick-off time were neither team has an advantage will probably be accepted. Any selections made 10 minutes or more into the match will be voided. Repeated late selections will possibly lead to disqualification.

7. I will publish a league table at the end of each weekend. There are no prizes although I will buy you a pint next summer if you beat me and I don't have to travel far to do so. This may not count if in London because I'll be damned if I am paying £3+ for a pint, what with travel costs and all that, in my day...........................

Overall Tipping League

1. There are no individual prices for this competition. All slections made in the Premiership, Autumn Internationals, Heineken Cup, and Six-Nations tipping comps will be totalled up to make your overall score.

2. There is no minimum number of tips as such but you do have to qualify for two of the individual tipping comps in order to qualify for the overall league.

3. The winner gets a bloody big "well done" from everyone and if he has any sense will have made a fair bit of money during the year.

Heineken Cup Tipping Comp - Round 3

2006-12-08T12:55:00.000Z

Friday

Bourgoin 11/4, Leicester 4/11
Handicap: Bourgoin +7.5

Saturday

Calvisano 16/1, Ospreys 1/16
Handicap: Calvisano +20.5

Parma 12/1, Northampton 1/16
Handicap: Parma +20.5

Borders 9/1, Biarritz 1/10
Handicap: Borders +17.5

Gloucester 1/5, Edinburgh 5/1
Handicap: Gloucester -12.5

Llanelli 8/11, Toulouse 11/8
Handicap: Llanelli -2.5

Castres 8/11, Perpignan 5/4
Handicap: Castres -2.5

London Irish 6/4, Ulster 4/6
Handicap: London Irish +3.5

Leinster 1/6, Agen 6/1
Handicap: Leinster -14.5

Sunday

Cardiff 6/4, Munster 4/6
Handicap: Cardiff +3.5

Stade Francais 1/6, Sale 11/2
Handicap: Stade Francais -13.5

Wasps 1/50, Treviso 16/1
Handicap: Wasps -28.5

Same rules as usual, any newcomers welcome.

Foundations in Sand - part 4 - Theories

2006-12-08T03:14:00.000Z

In the concluding part to this series of rambles through the English rugby countryside we shall be looking at a few ideas on how to improve the current structure.

These points should form the basis of any re-structuring

1. Clarity. The obvious point - the current structure is horribly muddled. Time to clear things up
2. Fewer Games - Too many pointless or sub-standard games and our 'elite' players are suffering
3. No Premiership on international weekends - Teams punished for having good players? Odd.
4. Developing the game - Involving lesser nations and helping them to grow

Stumbling blocks
Of course there are always people getting in the way of any sort of progress, if that wasn't the case then we wouldn't have this mess in the first place. Club owners, Premier Rugby, The RFU, the Players and the Fans all have to be appeased. Added to that is the difficulty of changing anything to do with the Heineken cup or internationals due to the vested interests from abroad. Every idea postulated below has it's upsides and downsides. Pleasing everyone is a very difficult thing to do, but it is clear to most that changes have to be made. Carrying on in the current mode is liable to damage the reputation of the sport in this country and lead to a drop in popularity, which in turn leads to less money. Heaven forbid that that should ever happen!

1. Franchises
Is this a vaible option? Basically no. It is an interesting theory though, to have a very southern hemisphere style to our season. The main stumbling block is that a lot of fans will not like this one little bit. Bath and Bristol coming together to form the West-Country Wizards? Wasps, Saracens and Harlequins merging to form the London Leopards? It sounds attractive for the higher quality of rugby that is likely to be the result of this. But tradition flys out the window and hardcore fans will lose interest. There is a simple beauty in the fact that a match between Bristol and Gloucester on a horribly wet Friday night can produce over 10,000 fans singing their hearts out throughout.
All in all while we want to improve a number of aspects we cant do so at the expense of traditions and what is a viable base anyway. The Premiership doesn't need to be abolished, it needs a fair bit of tweaking. What we could consider is some representative games at a certain point of the season - a North/South/East/West split maybe. But overall this would be far too much of an overhaul.

2. A little bit of tinkering
What if the Heineken cup was played in one big block, or two blocks towards the end of the season? With the current set-up we find the Heineken Cup pool games squeezed into three separate fortnight blocks, then the knockout stages come one at a time later on. With this set-up some teams have tended to field understrength teams from the start as they can not afford to upset their home campaign with the distraction of tournament that they are very unlikely to be succesful in. A similar problem occurs in the final rounds where some teams are already unable to qualify. As much as they would like to win games why take risks here with big home-league games coming up?

Sep to Nov - Guinness Premiership (first 9 rounds)
Nov -Autumn Internationals
Dec to Feb - Guinness Premiership (next 10 rounds)
Feb to Mar - Six-Nations + Guinness Premiership (final 3 rounds)
Mar to Apr - Heineken cup (6 pool rounds)
May - Heineken cup (knockout rounds)

Without Premiership games being played on the same weekends as internationals the final league table becomes much more realistic so the need for the Premiership play-off system is much lessened. Without the dual weekends there becomes very little time for these games anyway. The trouble is that it's a money spinner - some people hate the idea that you top the league and then have to beat another two teams to be crowned champions, but at the same time it is high-excitement rugby and it is very profitable. Well something has got to give so an alternative would be to play two Premiership rounds on international weekends to make space. The Heineken Cup could also be split up a little to add a little variety:

Sep to Oct - Guinness Premiership (first 6 rounds)
Oct - Heineken Cup (first 3 pool games)
Nov -Autumn Internationals
Dec to Jan - Guinness Premiership (next 7 rounds)
Jan - Heineken cup (next 3 pool games)
Feb to Mar - Six-Nations + Guinness Premiership (next 3 rounds)
Apr - Guinness Premiership (final 6 rounds)
May - Heineken cup (knockout rounds) + Guinness Premiership play-offs

May of course would become a very busy month for an English team going well in both competitions, but then who said it should be easy? I don't particularly like the idea of Heineken cup games as build-up to internationals but that could be changed around without too much trouble. There is a clarity here that is missing in the current structure. It is still a very hectic season for international players though.

3. A different Premiership
Two main ideas for this. Both working on the theory that a few less gameweeks wouldn't be a bad thing and that extra incentives could be given to teams in the latter part of the season. Cutting down the number of team from 12 to 10 simply isn't viable - players, owners and fans would not allow it. In that case we have to be more inventive.

3a. The North/South divide
This will cut down travelling costs a little bit. The NFL has a system in which 32 teams are split into 8 divisions vaguely based on geography. Teams play the other teams in their division twice, home and away, and plays games against selected other divisions teams once. This is overcomplicated for what we need to achieve, but is an introduction into the idea of splitting the league into geographical areas.

There are a few different ways to do this:

1. North/South. Two divisions of 7 teams (6 would mean only 16 regular season games) split north and south. The teams from each division play each other twice, and play the teams from the other division once. This gives a total of 19 regular season games. The top 2 (or 4 giving an extra round of play-offs to fill the coffers) from each conference go into the play-offs at the end of the season

2. North/West/East. Currently the 12 teams would be fairly easy to divide in this way (Newcastle, Sale, Leicester, Northampton = North). With this structure it would be difficult to make up enough regular season games without either adding three league one clubs to the Premiership or stealing the Welsh teams from the Celtic League. The second option is not impossible as there is always a fair amount of bickering between the Celtic nations. This would deal a hammer blow to Scotland and Ireland though (until they found a way to link up with France or SA no doubt).
With 15 teams the basis would be the same as the North/South option meaning 8 games (home and away) would be played between teams in the same division + 10 games against teams not in the same division (home or away).
With 16 teams there would be 6 divisional games each + 12 non-divisional games. I do not advocate breaking up the Magner's league by pinching the Welsh teams, but the NFL approach leads to a speculative option 3

3. Anglo-Celtic league. 11 Celtic league teams + 13 English teams makes up the nice round figure of 24. A number that can be split into 4x6, or more usefully 6x4 - 6 divisions of 4 teams, the Welsh and Irish teams forming their own divisions, Newcastle joining the Scots. Each team plays their own divisional teams home and away (6 games) and plays the teams from 3 other divisions once (12 games). A more extensive play-off system would surely ensue.
This undervalues the Heineken cup though so that may have to be rethought................................

3b. The Premiership in two halves
Important to get a decent start in this one. The basic idea is that one round of games is played, 11 games in total, and the top 6 go onto a mini-league to decide who will contest the play-offs, the bottom six forming a mini-league to fight against relegation and the top team (or two) gaining the chance to play-off with the 5th and 6th placed teams from the top half for Heineken cup places. This means that there are only 16 games in the regular season plus two play-offs. This is unlikely to be enough for bosses as revenues would not be high enough. Two possibilities present themselves here: firstly that the mini-leagues should be a home and away structure bringing the total games up to 21, secondly that 2 more teams should be added to the Premiership making the total games up to 19.
I much prefer the second option - the first suffers from the fact that teams will have to play some other teams three times and others only once. The second option brings the Premiership to a very managable number of games (19+2) and it also alows two extra teams a chance, something that would be timely as the standard of national league 1 appears to be improving. It also gives a better chance for Yorkshire and Cornwall to be represented. It is high time that Cornwall had a Premiership team, for such a rugby-loving area it is a shame to see them missing out.

The schedule of course is open to some tinkering with the Heineken cup a major player, but would look something like this:

Sep to Oct - Guinness Premiership (first 6 rounds)
Oct - Heineken Cup (first 3 pool games)
Nov -Autumn Internationals
Dec to Jan - Guinness Premiership (next 7 rounds, concluding the first half)
Jan - Heineken cup (next 3 pool games)
Feb to Mar - Six-Nations
Mar to Apr - Guinness Premiership (6 rounds of mini-leagues)
May - Heineken cup (knockout rounds) + Guinness Premiership play-offs

4. The International Weekends
With the abolition of the EDF cup we would have more weekends free for Premiership action. With a few less Premiership games in the season we would not need to play Premiership games on international weekends. This would be a sizeable boon - it would mean that teams are no longer punished for having international players and it would possibly slow down the rate of foreign imports. On the whole I am not against foreign imports but the current schedule gives advantages to teams who bring in their players from all over the world, such as London Irish, and this could be to the detriment of home-grown talent. Certainly at the top end I enjoy watching overseas players - Carlos Spencer, Darryl Gibson, Matt Burke and others - but you have to wonder about the impact of filling the rosters with players of lower quality than these individuals.

But what to do on international weekends? Give non-internationals 4 weeks off? Plenty of time to train, but no game-time. No revenue either.
Answer A - England A team (and B team?) to play semi-internationals against lesser nations
Answer B - Representative teams to play against each other and/or lesser nations

Answer A is a bare minimum reponse to extra weekends. It certainly benefits from having England's 'back-up' players playing and training together and gaining useful experience. Answer B has much more scope - North/South/East/West teams could come into play here.

During the 4 weekends set-aside for Autumn internationals teams such as Fiji, Tonga, Samoa, Georgia, Portugal, Romania, Japan, Canada and the USA could play second-tier games while the major test nations fight out the main events. It has always puzzled me as to what exactly these lesser rugby nations are supposed to gain by being smashed all over the park by the big teams. Against representative sides there would be much to gain, including the possibility of victory. The fans would find the concept of representative rugby easier to digest if it was not at the expense of their beloved clubs and players just below the England team would gain valuable experience.
The theory is that for instance a representative team (North, East, West and Central makes more sense due to geography) - the West for example could play in a mini-league with Tonga, Romania and Japan, then a play-off game with the winner of another mini-league if a competetive nature was deemed neccessary. Or simply play friendlies against these teams otherwise.
With the two mid-season international periods there is plenty of scope for representative fixtures and this could serve much greater use as a developmental tool than Premiership fixtures with depleted teams.

Conclusion
There is no conclusion to this as such. It is up to some 'old farts' to pull their fingers out of wherever they have been hiding them and do something about the current structure. The options are plentiful but the correct one must be chosen. Not an easy task with the number of vested interests, but right now we have a system that does not benefit anyone in the long-term, although some people are certainly gaining in the short-term.

My personal preference is for a mix of 3b and 4. And no EDF cup of course. Fewer games in total but a liklehood of: them being higher in quality, seeing fewer international players burnt out or injured, and the national team benefitting from better player development.
Well we can dream can't we?

By RugbyMan, with a little help from others. Thanks to Andy. And apologies to Alex B if 3a/1 looks familiar. Coincidence is a funny thing.

Foundations in Sand - part 3 - 'Qui Bono?'

2006-12-06T18:06:00.000Z

In this third part we shall be looking into the odd triumvirate of power governing English rugby and asking this: "Who benefits?"

Who benefits from chopping and changing throughout the season from one competition to another?
Who benefits from the huge number of games played throughout the season?
Who benefits from the EDF Cup?
Who benefits from having to play important Premiership matches while a number of their players are away on international duty?

In none of the cases above do the fans benefit, that is something that seems quite clear. Do the fans of the clubs, the fans of rugby, enjoy the constant chopping and changing of competitions? Variety may be the spice of life, but anyone who has put a little too much spice into a meal knows that too much of a good thing can be a bad thing.
Do the fans enjoy the large quantity of games? Do some degree they do, they enjoy watching rugby so enjoy the fact that there is a lot of rugby to watch. But then of course quality comes into it: if the sheer quantity of games that the players have to play impacts on their ability to play to their full abilities, surely this is a bad thing for fans.
The EDF cup falls under the category above. It provides extra games for the fans to watch, but due to the nature of the tournament the games are more often than not of a low standard with many of the pool games being treated as pointless by clubs. It also takes up four weekends of the season that could be used for Premiership games where teams would be far more likely to select a strong line-up.
The last question is maybe a little less clear cut. Leicester, Gloucester and Sale fans for example are unlikely to enjoy the international periods where their strong squads become seriously depleted. To teams like Worcester, Bristol and Harlequins meanwhile the chance to play weakened rivals is a much more attractive prospect. As a whole though it seems unlikely that the average rugby lover is going to be pleased with the fact that they are watching games devoid of the best players.

So the fans do not benefit, well fancy that! The average man in the street who works hard for a living and enjoys his rugby appears to be the one that suffers.
Do the players benefit from these things? Yes and no. They are almost certainly gaining financially through the EDF cup and the number of games, but in both cases they lose out as well. As noted in the previous article the inconsistency of fixtures and the large number of games are helping to keep English players behind their southern hemisphere counterparts in a number of aspects. Will English players continue to reap the financial rewards if the performance of the national team does not improve? Good wages will probably remain, but the top players are sure to lose out in their gains from sponsorship.

And if the national team suffers will the club game remain so popular? Probably not. It is no coincidence that attendances and interest in rugby have risen dramatically since 2003. Overall professional rugby is a more interesting and entertaining package than it has been in the past, marketing is going well and many new people are coming to the sport, so it is probably not simply national success that has propelled rugby forwards financially. But how long will this influx of new fans last? Will they remain if England perform poorly at the next world cup, or the next six-nations? Will they remain if it becomes apparent that we can not compete with the southern hemisphere nations? Rugby in England is riding upon the crest of a wave at the moment, enjoying the perks of a successful brand-leader a few years ago, but what happens to all waves? They break is the answer.

The decline of the national team is plain for all to see, but is it indicative of the state of the English game or is it an unfortunate run of results. Comparing leagues is tough - from a viewing perspective I could say that the super14 is a more attractive game to watch with better handling and running skills on show. The backline play in super14 rugby appears to be of a much higher standard than that of the Premiership, but such statements are always conjectural - we do not have the solid stats to back this up. What we do have is the Heineken Cup. In 2003/04 only two English clubs made it through to the knockout-stages, Wasps were the eventual champions though. In 2004/05 three teams made it through, but two were obliterated by far superior French teams in the QFs. Leicester went on to lose in the semi-final in a French dominated year. In 2005/06 three teams made it through again, but two teams lost out in the QFs. Bath went on to lose in the semis against another French team. At present there is little to suggest an English club will go far in 2006/07.

But it worked in 2003 you say. Indeed it did, a very strong and well organised team won the world cup for England with some very strong and well-organised performances. The worrying thing has to be how quickly it fell apart after a few players retired. England had no back-up plan, no reserves of player talent, they were crippled by the loss of some big names, while Clive Woodward quit in protest after falling out with his bosses over the way rugby was run. All in all it suggests a triumph against the odds rather than a case of strong foundations leading to a winning team. The sheer brutality, leadership and courage of a core of England players, along with their head-coach, won the world cup for England.
The summer tour of 2003 was the actual peak of this team. The beating of Australia and New Zealand in their own back yards was an immense achievement, yet NZ come to the northern hemisphere and beat the best teams by huge margins! In the eleven meetings between England and New Zealand since 1996 England have won 2 (2002 and 2003) while one game was drawn and the other 8 won by NZ. It is stats like these that make you wonder how much faith can be put in one good campaign.

While the southern hemisphere nations have a hierarchy of performance levels - the national club leagues (Currie Cup, Air NZ cup, Toohey's league), the provincial super14, then the national team - in England there is no such structure. The Super14 is a competition where the best players in the three SANZAR nations are compressed into 14 teams. The closest we have is the Heineken cup, but only 5 or 6 out of our 12 teams compete leaving the other teams, and their top players, without this higher level of competition.
It is a respected theory in any sport: 'you become the best by playing against the best'. Playing sub-standard oppostion does not help increase skills to internationals level.
Ireland have clearly benefited from their provincial teams in recent years. As multiple clubs they would never be able to compete at the highest level, but as 3 provinces they are able to gain success through strength and unity. Their subsequent improvement at international level is the by-product.

Most concerning of all is the English fixture list. The main points were covered in the last article, but are worth considering here. Is it best to have clear and consistent scheduling with only minimal overlapping of events, or is it best to have a fixture list where the multitude of tournaments weave in and out of each other and overlap constantly? The answer seems straightforward from both a viewing perspective and from a developmental perspective - clear and consistent all the way.
While I am not sure that 22 straight weekends of Guinness Premiership would be the best way to go I am convinced that it would be better than constantly chopping and changing from competition to competition. This will be looked into more deeply in the fourth and final article.

So who benefits from English rugby's current situation? In the long-term - nobody. In the short-term - the club owners maybe, some of the major sponsors possibly, in short those that make the money. But is it healthy for the English game? Is it even maximising potential profits for these people? In both cases I doubt it very much.

In the last article in this series we will look at some ways that the English game could be improved, from the possible to the very unlikely.

Who scores the most points?

2006-12-06T12:22:00.000Z

Curiously enough it is the Premiership that currently provides the highest number of points per game out of the three main northern hemisphere leagues.

Here's a run-down of points per game in the main club leagues:

Currie Cup - 3574 points in 59 games. Average = 60.57

Super14 - 4316 points in 94 games. Average = 45.91
Air NZ cup - 3159 points in 70 games. average = 45.13
Premiership - 2348 points in 54 games. Average = 43.48

French Top14 - 4440 points in 112 games. Average = 39.64

Magners League - 1730 points in 46 games. Average = 37.6

Certainly a suggestion that weather plays a major part here with the Currie Cup providing a huge number of points per game. A little surprising on that basis that the French Top14 can not manage 40 points per game.

Rugby Tactics

2006-12-04T13:35:00.000Z

Just a short one to point out this website. It's not rocket science, most of the moves are straightforward, as are the drills, but it's an excellent way to get simple ideas for playing. Plenty of resources available as well from rules to forums.

http://www.rugbytactics.com/

Foundations in sand - part 2 - 'another fine mess'

2006-12-03T20:52:00.000Z

Having melted down the New Zealander's rugby schedule into simple bite-size pieces I now set myself the daunting task of trying to unravel the English rugby season. A far more complicated beast with apparently random scheduling, utterly pointless tournaments, and huge numbers of games. In theory it is a simple enough concept - the twelve top teams in England battle for the Premiership title, the top performers go into the Heineken cup the next year, the worst team is relegated to the national league. Nice and simple. But then we have the EDF cup, which I still don't understand the relevance of, and rather than separating each tournament into set times of the season we find each individual competition spread willy-nilly throughout! This requires deeper investigation.

This is the basic idea:

Guinness Premiership - early September to mid-May - 22 league games + 2 play-offs
Heineken Cup - late October to mid-May - 6 pool games + 3 play-offs
Euro Challenge Cup - late October to mid-May - 6 pool games + 3 play-offs
*note: the Euro Challenge Cup is essentially the Heineken 'B' league.*
EDF Energy Cup - late September to mid April - 3 pool games and 2 play-offs

Autumn Internationals - November - 3 or 4 games
Six Nations - February and March - 5 games
Summer Internationals - June - 2 or 3 games

This season 7 weekends of the Guinness Premiership overlap with international rugby. This means that the theoretical maximum number of games that an England player can play is 42. It is unlikely however that anywhere near this number is reached - many internationals are rested during the EDF cup, although there are no guarantees of this, and few English players tend to see the latter stages of the Heineken cup. Also the summer tour this year featured few players who would be considered first-team players and played in the Autumn or the Six-Nations. Where this leaves us is with a great deal of confusion. If the EDF cup was to be ignored completely and we assume that top players will be looking to feature in as many Premiership and Heineken cup games as possible as well as the two main international periods we find a viable total 30 games plus a few more if the club is successful. On the surface this does not sound too bad.

The first thing that stands out though is the muddled and inconsistent nature of the season. To make this clearer here is a full list of weekends:

2/3 September - Guinness Premiership
9/10 September - Guinness Premiership
16/17 September - Guinness Premiership
23/24 September - Guinness Premiership
30/1 October - EDF Cup
7/8 October - EDF Cup
14/15 October - Guinness Premiership
21/22 October - Heineken Cup
28/29 October - Heineken Cup
4/5 November - Autumn Internationals + Guinness Premiership
11/12 November - Autumn Internationals + Guinness Premiership
18/19 November - Autumn Internationals + Guinness Premiership
25/26 November - Autumn Internationals + Guinness Premiership
2/3 December - EDF Cup
9/10 December - Heineken Cup
16/17 December - Heineken Cup
22 December - Guinness Premiership
26/27 December - Guinness Premiership
1 January - Guinness Premiership
6/7 January - Guinness Premiership
13/14 January - Heineken Cup
20/21 January - Heineken Cup
27/28 January - Guinness Premiership
3/4 February - Six-Nations
10/11 February - Six-Nations
17/18 February - Guinness Premiership
24/25 February - Six-Nations + Guinness Premiership
3/4 March - Guinness Premiership
10/11 March - Six-Nations + Guinness Premiership
17/18 March - Six-Nations + Guinness Premiership
24/25 March - EDF Cup
31/1 April - Heineken Cup quater-finals
7/8 April - Guinness Premiership
14/15 April - Guinness Premiership + EDF final
21/22 April - Heineken Cup semi-finals
28/29 April - Guinness Premiership
5/6 Mayl - Guinness Premiership play-offs
12/13 May - Guinness Premiership final
19/20 May - Heineken Cup final

*In each case of Heineken cup rugby there is European Challenge cup rugby as well.*

Hopefully all the pretty colours highlight how little consistency there is. There has been absolutely no attempt to allow teams to focus their attentions on one tournament at a time - for instance on the 3 weekends from 17th March onwards we see 4 different tournaments. No consistency means lack of focus. Clubs have to turn their attentions from one tournament to another - each tournament having different values, different requirements, different refereeing, different styles of opposition. To bounce from one type of game to another throughout the season must be a nightmare for any head coach.
One week a coach may be fully focussed on the Premiership, securing survival and then a high finish for European qualification. The next week he may have to play in the same competition without the services of his top players, all away on international duty. Then he turns to the EDF cup and decides to rest a host of first-teamers as the tournament is deemed an unnecessary risk. Next up comes the Heineken cup and some very difficult, must-win games. Then it's back to the Premiership for a week or two before another tournament! This is pure farce and the fact that it has devolved into this primitive approach is extraordinary.

To focus on the top tier of rugby - the internationals - we must look at short periods in Feb/March, June, November. In the two weeks leading up to the Autumn Internationals we have Heineken cup rugby. This is far from ideal as it means that players are fully focussed on club rugby and two very important games just before they embark on trying to hold off the challenges of the southern hemisphere's best. The Six-Nations is similarly preceded by club rugby of an important nature, no chance of players being rested in order to prepare. The England team goes into the six-nations with 5 days of preparation, the first of which will probably suffer from a number of players recovering from the exertions of the previous week. To add to this there are breaks in between international fixtures whereupon the players return to their clubs to play Premiership fixtures. Then in June the England team are finally able to gain a few weeks of time together, but due to the tough physical nature of the season we tend to find a number of players unavailable for selection. Others may be simply left behind to recover in time for the next season. Afterall, coming off a run of 39 consecutive weekends of rugby the last thing a player needs is a trip down under to play against the toughest teams in the world!

What we can draw from this is that the England Head-Coach is always going to be swimming against the tide. He not only has to overcome the skills and abilities of the southern hemisphere nations often being of a higher standard, but also has to deal with the fact that his players are less focussed, more susceptible to injury, and worst of all have precious little time together to prepare.
The question of basic skills is a difficult one to answer, by all accounts it would appear that young NZ players come into the professional ranks with better handling and passing skills for instance than their English counterparts. But it is not just the ability to catch and pass that constitute technical abilities - decision making, tactical kicking, the ability to run set-moves is often shown to be of a lower standard. These are things that should be developed at club level, a consistently high-standard of rugby demanding an ever greater ability in these areas.
But that is not the case - the Premiership seems to be poor schooling indeed. Many areas can be looked at: coaches, elder players, weather conditions, rule interpretations. To me it is abundantly clear that head-coaches in England do not have a clear path to tread. Their path is muddled by the multitude of tasks to focus upon, their need to switch focus from week to week, their need to deal with the loss of as much as half of their team or more on certain weekends then to bring those players back in the next week. To be a head-coach in England requires a degree in juggling and that is simply not neccessary in NZ.

In short it is about consistency. Consistency of selection, consistency of focus. To talk in terms of foundations it is clear that this structure is deeply flawed, as if it has been built without any thought given to planning or structure. Rather than a multi-tiered structure of clearly defined steps to the top, a pyramid with internationals at the top built upon strong foundations of provincial and club rugby, we have a ramshackle cottage created by chucking in whatever materials are to hand in any way they can be made to fit.

In the next article we shall be looking deeper into the effects of the intertwining of tournaments throughout the year, how it impacts on team selection and as a result upon training, fitness and preparation. A deeper look into the differences between the demands on NZ and English players and the games they are required to play as well as the thankless task of the head-coach under these conditions.

Foundations In Sand - part 1 - The way things work in NZ

2006-11-30T22:02:00.000Z

This is the first of a number of articles I will be writing to look into the reasons for England's abysmal form and the muddling standard of the Guinness Premiership. Before we get into the specifics of the English game it seems like a good idea to head to somewhere upon which the rugby Gods are smiling these days (as on many others). This does not mean that we are going to Ireland, we could do but the weather is rubbish this time of year. New Zealand are at the top of the world rankings for good reason so that is where we should head.

First of all we shall simply look into the fixture list for a typical top-level professional rugby player:

Super14 - early February to late May - 13 games regular season + 2 potential play-offs
Summer Internationals - early to late June - 3 games
Tri-Nations - early July to early September - 6 games
Air NZ cup - late July to late October - 9 games regular + 3 potential play-offs
Autumn Internationals - November - 3 or 4 games

This suggests that an all-black could play as many as 40 competetive games in a season but that is not quite true. The Air NZ cup overlaps with the tri-nations and few of the internationals played in the first seven rounds of the Air NZ cup. This puts the upper limit around 33 games. Between the end of November and early February NZ rugby players do not play any competitive games but they do have the Super14 pre-season to contend with in the new year. Being an all-black regular is a year round job, but I do not believe any player played as many as 30 games this year, even those who did stay injury-free. Not being involved inthe national team means between 22 and 27 is the maximum number of games to be played.

The first thing that becomes obvious from this is the simplicity of the structure. Only two competitions overlap: probably the most important set of fixtures - the tri-nations, and the least important - the Air NZ cup. Due to central contracting there is no difficulty at all in the fact that the 20 or so top players miss the first 7 rounds. The bonus here is that while the international players are plying their trade elsewhere their clubs are able to bring in replacements for a decent run of games. The club functions as a team without the big names and is boosted when they return, rather than being a team first and then having to make do without their stars at certain points.
The super14 is a league of 13 consecutive games (except for one bye-week) so the teams are able to consistently play together for a long period of time. This is without doubt an advantage over many northern hemisphere teams. There is no time in the English season where 14 consecutive weekends are devoted to one competition with full-strength teams. From here it is a few weeks of international preperation and then a few weeks of international games. This is the perfect build-up to the tri-nations which lasts for a period of 10 weeks over which 6 games are played by each team. Then it is back to the grindstone with 2 to 5 weeks of Air NZ cup games before going back to international preperations and then 4 weeks of internationals in the northern hemisphere to finish the season.

New Zealand played international matches on these dates this year:
10th June
17th June
24th June
8th July
22nd July
29th July
19th August
26th August
2nd September
5th November
11th November
18th November
25th November

One thing becomes very obvious very quickly - all of these games are played in a 5 month period. A total of 168 days from first to last. This means that New Zealand players are able to focus on the task in hand much more effectively. They play a high standard of provincial games early in the season, then internationals, then a small batch of club matches, then more internationals and rest. It is certainly not possible to sum up the northern hemisphere season in so easy a sentance.
The schedule along with the central contracting enables a much more structured approach to the international season. The NZRFU are able to 'peak' their players at specific times and to allow them to play at their maximum capacity for short but important periods.

Fewer games at higher intensity is the New Zealand way. The clarity and uncluttered nature of the NZ schedule lends itself to the proper development of it's players talents. A top tier along which the top players play and train together and a clear second tier through which up and coming players are developed.
When you look at the period of internationals running from early June to early September it should not be asked 'how do NZ play so well as a team?' but rather 'how is it possible for northern hemisphere teams to compete with this?' Such a lengthy period certainly lends itself to unity and teamplay. And this tidy run of fixtures, the ability to run consistent training programmes, the low number of games overall lend themselves to fitter players with fewer injuries - another building block in consistency, unity and success.

A word of warning now, NZ must be careful not to over-expose their players, as the expansion of the tri-nations and super12 in the last year have led to more big games for their stars. This is a point of concern, whenever something is working at a high-level for a certain period it is the nature of man to ask how much more can be squeezed out of this highly efficient model. This is a creeping death, a slow inexorable slide towards the weakening of a position from which the original success was gained. At the root of it all is money, as always, and it is money that has caused the major problems in northern hemisphere rugby - if people pay to see 20 games a season surely they will pay to see 25. 'If I have earned this much money from pumping the handle this hard surely I would make more money from pumping the handle harder'. How much more expansion before too many games are played? New Zealand rugby is built on strong foundations but even the mightiest buildings with the strongest foundations can fall if too much weight is piled up too high.

Next up we shall look into the chaotic English rugby year and play a game called "So which tournament are we playing in this week?"

Take me to your Leader

2006-11-30T19:14:00.000Z

The England rugby team is in serious trouble right now with 1 win in the last 9 games and hopeless performances to match. Andy Robinson finally left his post as England head coach yesterday and for the first time in two years we can look to the future with some optimism. Not that I expect England to suddenly become contenders for the world cup of course, but under Robinson confidence had dropped so far that winning games became a huge surprise. Whoever takes over will at least have the fact that winning half of his games would be seen as massive improvement. Along with a new coach is likely to come a reshuffling of personnel and new leadership. Martin Corry tried as hard as anyone could expect, but ultimately did not prove to be a very effective player or captain. There were many others in the team who under-performed, who failed to stand up and be counted when the team desperately needed figureheads (or at least players who could catch or pass). With a new coach we are likely to see an emphasis on youth, the world cup is simply to close for England to seriously consider winning it, so an approach geared towards success in the 2008-2011 period would be more useful. A great deal of work is needed to be done behind the scenes sorting out the structure of the English game and re-working the chaotic, and frankly ridiculous, fixture list. But that is a story for another day (next week if I can find enough time).

So there are two main vacancies to be filled: Head Coach and Captain. In the latter case it is possible that the current incumbent retains his position but it is likely that he will not. Who are the main contenders then?

Head Coach

The deeper I look into the structure of the English game the more I understand the difficulties encountered by whoever holds this post. I do have some sympathy with Andy Robinson in that the English rugby fixture list simply does not aid attempts to mould XV players into a team. That is not to say that I believe he should have stayed, my article on the back-row makes it abundantly clear what I felt of his selection policy.

The new head-coach is going to be given the task of creating a successful team from a group of physically and mentally tired, often injured, players, generally confused by the multiple demands made upon them throughout the year and having little time together as a unit. It is this lack of preparation time that requires the England coach to be sure about the players he wishes to use in his squad and to stick with his core as much as possible. Switching players in and out like Graham Henry does is simply not an option, the Woodward approach of a core unit of first-team certainties is the only way.

The difficulty inherent in sacking the coach a few months into the season is obvious - nobody wants to leave their club in the middle of the season to take up the post. When Rob Andrew suggests that England will not have a new head-coach in place by the start of the six-nations he is probably very accurate. The chances are that one will not be in place by the end of the six-nations either. The question is that if the new coach only has the summer internationals to get his team together, impose his will and create a winning team............ what chance has he got? Very little I would suggest.

Although it is a somewhat depressing conclusion, based as it is upon the unavailability of suitable candidates, I can not see the point in appointing a new head-coach prior to the end of the world-cup. Someone who is available for the start of the six-nations has to head the list of candidates. Someone already involved in the England set-up would be best. For this reason it simply has to be Brian Ashton to take us to the world cup. He is the only logical choice if Andrew's statement is true. Five games during the spring, 5 games in the summer and then it's world-cup time. It is a lot to ask of Ashton to drag England from the mire that they are currently in and perform well at the world-cup, but it would be even more to ask of anyone else.

Ashton's own opinion has to come into this of course. Does he want the job at all? Does he want to do the job just until next October before making way for a new coach? Fortunately for him, despite England's position as world-cup holders, expectations will be fairly low. Maybe the RFU will take the view that the world-cup simply isn't going to be a success and so they will bring the new coach in beforehand to experience defeat with his players before building towards the next 4 years. The RFU are not easy to predict as they showed with Robinson that logic doesn't always need to come into decisions.

Brian Ashton to take the reigns for the next year in my opinion, what other option do we really have?

Captain
The decision on who will be the next England captain will be made by the next England coach so in a sense this is more speculative. However, I think it is easy enough to whittle down the list of contenders to a shortlist of people able, or likely, to do the job.

First of all lets rule out anyone under the age of 25, it is simply very unlikely that such a young man will get the task of leading England. Secondly let's cut it down to players who are likely to figure in the new coaches 'core team', i.e. players who are more than likely to play every game:

Josh Lewsey and Mark Cueto are the only real certainties in the backline . Hodgson, Goode, Noon, Abbott, Tindall, Cohen, Sackey, Balshaw are all possibilities but certainly not definites. Richards and Perry appear to be clear of the other scrum-halves but again neither is assured a start. And then there is Johnny Wilkinson of course who would surely play if fit, but has missed every England game since 2003.
In the front-row Phil Vickery appears more than likely to hold down a place as he returns to form and fitness while Matt Stevens may be taking the other spot. Julian White starts more due to a lack of other options than his own glowing skills. At hooker we have three main options in Thompson, Mears and Chuter. Which of these will be the new coaches pick is anyones guess. Steve Thompson could possibly make a return to the England fold next Feb but there is a lot of competition here.
In the second-row Danny Grewcock is always pushing for a place but has disciplinary problems. Chris Jones and Tom Palmer are both pushing for that same position but are too inexperienced for captaincy anyway. Steve Borthwick was a guaranteed starter for England until injury put him out of the autumn internationals and I expect he will be a guaranteed starter again when form and fitness return.
In the back-row we have numerous question marks. Will Martin Corry retain his position? Will Lawrence Dallaglio take it from him? Will Pat Sanderson be persevered with (assumingly the new coach will have the sense not to play him at number 8)? Will Lewis Moody remain a regular starter? Will Tom Rees and Magnus Lund finally be given chances? And how about James Forrester and Dan Ward-Smith, the two best Premiership number 8s this year, will they finally get their chances? Will Joe Worsley still get picked despite his obvious limitations? The competition for places in the back-row is extremely hot at the moment and to make one of these the new England captain would be difficult, but not impossible.

By now we should have a shortlist of players who have a good chance of playing and who have the experience and age neccessary. For anyone outside this bunch to be captain would mean that the new head coach has as odd an approach to team selection as Robinson:

Phil Vickery
Steve Borthwick
Danny Grewcock
Martin Corry
Lewis Moody
Lawrence Dallaglio
Pat Sanderson
Johnny Wilkinson
Mark Cueto
Josh Lewsey

Who out of these players listed above has actually gained experience of captaining a side? Is there anyone who simply does not look like a captain?
Danny Grewcock is very unlikely in my opinion, too many disciplinary problems, not a guarnateed starter and not often a captain. Lewis Moody has no chance - never a captain and under plenty of pressure for his position. Mark Cueto is seriously unlikely - not a captain, and playing on the wing is not the ideal position for a captain anyway. Josh Lewsey is very unlikely - he has the experience and the attitude as a player but has no experience as a captain, not to be ruled out but certainly not to be expected either.

Now we are down to:
Phil Vickery
Steve Borthwick
Martin Corry
Lawrence Dallaglio
Pat Sanderson
Johnny Wilkinson

It is unlikely that the new captain does not come from this bunch. Phil Vickery has captained England before but he has rarely captained club sides and has injury problems that keep him out of a lot of games. He is not a particularly vocal man and does not tend to stamp his authority on situations. He is also on the wane as a player. Martin Corry is the captain of his club and a tough, gritty sort of player. He is the sort of player that is made the captain of teams but his position is seriously under threat, it is very questionable as to whether he is even in the top 3 number 8s in the country at the moment. Add to this that his tenure as England captain was a poor one and that the fans are set against him. Corry is very unlikely to retain his captaincy long-term although he may just wear the armband again as a short-term option. Lawrence Dallaglio is another former England captain, but also another that may struggle to make the team. His age is beginning to tell and he is nowhere near the force he was three years ago. I am convinced that the new coach will be desperate to look 'progressive' and Dallaglio as captain is certainly a backwards step. He may get the job if the coach is taking a very conservative approach to the world-cup, a sort of 'hope to get through the pool stages and maybe put up a fight in the knockout stages with an old team' approach. Pat Sanderson has been messed around more than any other player in the Robinson era finding himself left out for average players and then bought into the squad and played out of position. For Worcester he is a good captain, a man who fights for the cause and looks the part. For England he has looked out-of-sorts and is another who may struggle to keep his place. However I feel Sanderson has a good chance of being captain, he led the summer tour to Australia and has the basic credentials. He is also young enough to be a long-term prospect. Johnny Wilkinson is a possibility but not a probability. For a start he has to get himself fit and then he has to stay fit, which is something he struggles to do. Making Wilkinson captain would be a dangerous move as he may well fail to get on the pitch for most games. On the plus side he does have some experience as a captain, is well-respected, and will probably be a starter if fit. I am sure the new head coach will consider Wilkinson but may well pass him over for a more reliable man. Wilkinson gave up the Newcastle captaincy to focus on his own game, why would he then take on the England job at such a troubled point in his career? Last of all Steve Borthwick. This man is almost certainly the best lock forward we have and is surely a first team fixture when fit. He is the captain of Bath and without him they do tend to look a little lost (note that Borthwick has missed a number of games this year and that Bath are in trouble at the foot of the table). His disciplinary record is good, he is a big man who is easy to spot, he is vocal without being excitable, and is well-respected. Borthwick is also a relatively young man at 27, old enough to have been around the block but young enough to have a long future as and England captain. The main problem here is that Borthwick's season has been stifled by a long-term injury. If he is able to get back into the Bath team by the new year and then prove his form and fitness I believe he will be very high up on any coach's list of potentials. The question is will he make it back in time for the six-nations?

In conclusion
I believe that Pat Sanderson and Steve Borthwick will be the most likely long-term choices. In the short-term we may find that one of the older players is given the armband. Borthwick for example may be unavailable for the first game so another player would have to take control, in this instance Corry, Dallaglio or Vickery are definite possibilities. None of these players is likely to continue past the world cup though so a progressive thinking coach would surely look elsewhere. If the RFU go for a stop-gap measure appointing a coach to simply do as good a job as possible up to the world cup before handing over then we may find the older players to be more likely options, but the RFU have taken enough flack so far and must surely wish to be seen to be going forwards. Steve Borthwick is easily the outstanding candidate for captaincy post world-cup.

At the moment only Paddy Power have a market open on the next England captain. Ladbrokes and William Hills did, but have closed the market now. I do not know why. Paddy Power have not offered a price on Steve Borthwick and are only going 6/1 on Sanderson.

Guinness Premiership Tipping Comp after round 9

2006-11-28T12:36:00.000Z

A little bit late up but maybe that was because I am dissapointed that both my Sunday picks managed to frow away good early leads.

1. RugbyNut £894.18
2. RugbyMan £792.05
3. MWAP £725.77
4. Big Dunc £717.17
5. Boxman £541.55
6. Furelli £473.63
7. Ace Rothstein £382.15
8. Ruck and Roll £324.14
9. Albion £175.32
10. AH £123.76
11. The Man £42.72
12. Sparkles £0
13. Wires -£9.09
14. Vickersa -£27.73
15. Uncle Jam -£36.36
16. Db2 -£125
17. Oo R Ya £-142.43
18. Thatsarighttouch -£328.29

Wasps and Saracens getting turned-over led to our first loss of the season. £609 down this week but still up £4286 overall.

How the Premiership fared during the internationals

2006-11-27T12:33:00.000Z

Each of the Guinness Premiership teams played 4 games during the international period. No team won all 4 and no team lost all 4, but some teams certainly made up some ground. Here are how the points were shared:

Leicester 14 (3 wins, 1 LB, 1 TB)
Harlequins 14 (3 wins, 1 LB, 1 TB)
Gloucester 13 (3 wins, 1 LB, 0 TB)
Bristol 13 (3 wins, 1 LB, 0 TB)
Saracens 10 (2 wins, 1 LB, 1 TB)
London Irish 9 (2 wins, 0 LB, 1 TB)
Sale 9 (2 wins, 1 LB, 0 TB)
Newcastle 9 (2 wins, 1 LB, 0 TB)
Wasps 8 (1 wins, 3 LB, 1 TB)
Bath 6 (1 wins, 2 LB, 0 TB)
Worcester 5 (1 wins, 1 LB, 0 TB)
Northampton 4 (1 wins, 0 LB, 0 TB)

So most obviously Harlequins were the winners and Northampton the losers in this period. Bristol were also able to keep their fantastic run going and still top the league. Northampton had injuries as well as call-ups to contend with and their inexperienced backline leaked points by the bucket-load.

Autumn Internationals Tipping Comp - The Winner

2006-11-26T20:20:00.000Z

Well done to Ace Rothstein for winning the first Autumn internationals tipping comp on this blog. An impressive performance in what turned out to be a tough competition. Ace is awarded the "RugbyMan award for good tipping" and will treasure it always I have no doubt. There is no prize as such but he may have earnt himself the opportunity to drink a beer or two at my expense sometime in the near future and listen to me telling him why he was so damned lucky to beat me. Well worth winning I'm sure you all agree. Here is the final table bar any mistakes and ommissions I may have made.

1st Ace Rothstein £587
2nd Kerrybhoy £566.09
3rd The Freshman £356.09
4th MWAP £274.27
5th Big Dunc £157
6th Furelli £42.96
7th AH £-129.09
8th Boxman £-161.52
9th RugbyMan £-174.73
10th Ruck and Roll £-290.89
11th SecondRow £-709.09
12th Albion £-918.18

Also involved but not reaching the required number of tips:

Vickersa -218.18

WAZ -309.09

Sparkles -9.09

Wakey Stan -9.09

Dribbler -319.09

All selections count towards the overall title but you still have to reach the qualifying standard in two separate competitions.

I think some of us have to go away from this wondering what went wrong, I know for myself I simply did too many and all of those that I was not totally sure about went against me. All a good learning process though.

If you have any queries about your score or position leave a comment in the comment section below and don't forget to sign. If you are Ace Rothstein you may leave an acceptance speech commenting on what it feels like to have won such a prestigious award and how it feels to have wiped the floor with everyone. You may also explain how you managed to get 9 out of 11 selections right. If you are Kerrybhoy maybe a comment on how you were robbed at the death by dirty underhand tactics and how you managed to get 7 out of 8 tips right.

Overall we lost £1264.63 from a total of 159 selections.

Autumn Internationals Tipping Comp - Round 4

2006-11-25T11:21:00.000Z

Last round of games for this competition. Don't get carried away though, all selections still count towards the overall title.

England 4/6, SA 6/4
Handicap: England -3.5
Total Points: Under or over 41.5

Scotland 5/2, Australia 2/5
Handicap: Australia -7.5
Total Points: Under or over 41.5

Wales 9/1, New Zealand 1/10
Handicap: New Zealand -19.5
Total Points: Under or over 54.5

France 1/3, Argentina 3/1
Handicap: France -8.5

Italy 1/20, Canada 16/1
Handicap: Italy -23.5

Ireland 1/12, Pacific Islanders 12/1
Handicap: Ireland -18.5
Total Points: Under or over 55.5

Handicaps all 10/11
Total points 9/10

Guinness Premiership Tipping Comp - Round 9

2006-11-24T09:44:00.000Z

Sale 4/9, Harlequins 2/1
Handicap: Sale -6.5

Bristol 10/11, Gloucester evens

And on Saturday:

Bath 8/13, Newcastle 13/8
Handicap: Bath -4.5

Sunday games:

Saracens 1/6, Worcester 9/2
Handicap: Saracens -14.5

London Irish 1/2, Northampton 2/1
Handicap: Irish -6.5

Wasps 8/13, Leicester 13/8
Handicap: Wasps -4.5

Back-Row Basics

2006-11-23T19:01:00.000Z

Andy Robinson's tenure as England head-coach has been one of inconsistent selection policies and poor results. Over the past two years England have failed to gain any continuity and as a result they are no closer to success than they have ever been in this period. While there can be a fair amount of leeway given in the selection of halfbacks, centres and maybe the back-three as well due to retirements, injuries and poor form, there are fewer excuses when it comes to the selection of the back-row. It is in this area that Robinson has been more consistent with his selection than in others, but it is in this area that some of England's biggest problems lie.

Let's take a look at the make-up of the archetypal back-row. The blindside flanker, number 6, tends to be a quiet man, a hard-worker but certainly not a show-pony. Defensive priorities and ball-securing dominate the thinking of a player in such a position. Often a hard-hitter yet mobile player with a real all-rounder's set of skills. The best blindsides of recent times are players such as Richard Hill, Serge Betsen, Jerry Collins and Jason White, while Simon Best appears to be forcing his way into this category. These men are 'protectors', solid citizens who are always on hand to secure ball or drive back the opposition and they have possibly the highest work-rate in rugby. None of these players are flashy.
Next up are the openside flankers, the highly regarded number 7s, often much prettier than the rest of their fellow forwards. It is not generally the task of opensides to get involved in too much grunting and grinding. Not for them the big tackles and tireless pounding of the other back-row men. The openside is often termed 'fetcher' as it is his number 1 task to rob the opposition at breakdown. No trouble in finding famous names in this position: Richie McCaw is the obvious choice, George Smith, Neil Back, Martyn Williams, David Wallace, Olivier Magne, Schalk Burger. These players are characterized by having a little less weight than their fellow back-rows but a fair bit more pace. It is this extra pace that makes them the first to the breakdown on countless occasions and gives that extra second to rip the ball from the opposition. On attack they tend to find themselves in wide areas more often than blindsides or number 8s lending their pace to the line. Opensides tend to be the most penalised players in a team as their work at the breakdown is generally on the cusp of illegality and often straying over.
Last of all the number 8, a position that is unique on the rugby field for failing to have a specific name. Number 8s tend to be a little larger than the other back-rows, although many number 8s also appear at blinside on numerous times in their careers. A number 8 is often asked to take the ball up more than the other back-rows, particularly into heavy traffic, and his position at the back of the scrum often requires him to take the ball into contact and fight for every inch. Lawrence Dallaglio, Dennis Leamy, Rodney So'oialo and Martin Corry are notably of the bulkier number 8, while Ryan Jones and Simon Taylor are examples of number 8s who although big are also both mobile and skillful. Number 8s tend to be the link between forwards and backs, often finding themselves, along with their other back-row members, in the line alongside backs and for this reason a high degree of technical ability is necessary here.

While a number of players have been used in England's back-row during Robinson's tenure it is easy to spot his preferred players. While Pat Sanderson is very much involved in Robinson's plans now he was not one of the 'originals'. Joe Worsley, Lewis Moody and Martin Corry have been his three stalwarts and it has become any 3 from these 4 in the past year. If we look back to England's world cup winning back-row and compare with the current line-up it is not difficult to see how things have gone wrong.
Lawrence Dallaglio - Martin Corry
Dallaglio was a born leader although he has always been prone to saying to much. Players rally around him though and he leads by example. Never the quickest player but he could always get around the pitch pretty well and his upper-body strength was almost unmatchable. Martin Corry has a similarly abrasive style but neither his strength nor pace match up to Dallaglio's and his technical abilities lag behind. Dallaglio was not the sort of player to throw long passes out wide but his ball-retention, support play and tackling were all strongpoints. Though Corry's heart is every bit as big as his predecessor's he appears to be the low-budget version in so many ways and his tendency to give away petulant penalties does not help his cause.
Neil Back - Lewis Moody
Had these two players not been teammates at Leicester it is quite possible that Moody would have developed into a very good openside. As it is Moody was forced to play blindside throughout his career while players such as Back and Kronfeld took up the 7 jersey. With openside flanker being a much more specialized position it is unusual for a player to play the larger part of his career at six before swapping to seven. Moody has attempted to do this and the results are predictable. For ability to get around the pitch there is little difference between the two, maybe Moody is a little quicker in fact. For basic skills, for tackling, for support play, again Moody is no less a player. But it is the breakdown that makes the difference. Back spent his whole life learning how to play this area of the game, knowing when to put hands in and when to stay out, knowing when the ref could see him and when he could not. Moody lacks Back's experience and nous although he does not lack enthusiam, which leads to a higher penalty count and a lower turnover count. Moody is simply a player out of position. As a 6 he may not be the biggest tackler or the best at doing impressions of a back in the loose, but his ability to disrupt and to harry the opposition have earned him a lot of respect, as has his chasing of kick-offs.
Hill - Worsley
This is the simplest case of 'no-contest'. Joe Worsley is limited in many respects. He is a big man and hits hard in the tackle and on occasions he is able to carry the ball well, but in just about every area of blindside play he is a mile behind the man who came before him. If a book was to be written on Blindside play it would have to heavily feature the work of Richard Hill as his all-round contribution to every game in which he played was phenomenal. Strong in the tackle, mobile and tireless, able to handle the ball better than almost any other forward and constantly supporting, he epitomises the 'hard-working' qualities of a good blinside flanker. Worsley does not constantly appear in the loose, nor does he ever seem to win the ball at breakdown. One of the oddities of England selection over a number of years is that Joe Worsley has over 50 caps to his name. Had he been born a New Zealander I would be surprised to see him capped at all.

So the players at Robinson's disposal are not what they were in days past. For this I have every sympathy, but this does not mean that his policies are sensible. Moody has played at openside in almost every match that he has been available for, yet he seems no closer to fitting the role than he ever has. Worsley has played blindisde on numerous occasions despite other contenders to the spot with greater ball-skills and mobility. Martin Corry's role as captain has ensured his continuous selection in the team but very few are convinced about his validity as either captain or player. Pat Sanderson has come in with a reputation as a hard-working flanker who can play on either side of the scrum, his light frame and speed marking him out as more of a 'fetcher'. Despite this Robinson chose to play him first at blindside and then, bizarrely, at number 8 where he rarely ever plays. Sanderson has suffered at 8 as any sub-15st man with a sketchy knowledge of his position is likely to.

So what options does Robinson have? In his early games in charge Robinson tried a number of players in the back-row roles but always reverted to his favourites. Andy Hazell has had a couple of chances at openside, Hugh Vyvyan a few minutes off the bench, Chris Jones has appeared at blindside. None of these particularly impressed but they would surely argue that very little opportunity was given to them. In the first six-nations game of Robinson's tenure the back-row was Jones, Hazell, Worsley. An injury-forced selection that failed to ignite, Jones and Hazell losing their places but the near-anonymous Worsley living to fight another day. England have suffered from a lack of specialists, players who know what their positions entail and have both the skills and physicality to enable them to play at the highest level. Last year in the Premiership we witnessed a change in this: James Forrester began to look like a class-act at number 8, Magnus Lund played out of his skin on a number of occasions for Sale and Tom Rees emerged as a serious talent on either side of the scrum for Wasps. Michael Lipman has also performed well for Bath but has been prevented from selection on a number of occasions by injury.

All of a sudden the dynamics could change. England's performances have been characterized over the last two years by slow-ball and no team can expect to succeed without quick ball. It is vital for the backline to get quick ball from the rucks so that they can play with pace and make holes in a back-peddling defence. As a unit England's back-row have completely failed to achieve this and though the fault lies not only at their door, it is a large part of their responsibility. The lack of pace in the England forwards has been cruelly exposed by numerous nations in the past two years and it this area in which the problems really lie. A look at the most successful back-row in the world highlights this: Collins, McCaw, So'oialo. While neither Collins nor So'oialo are blessed with amazing speed they are both excellent athletes and as quick as most in their positions. In a 100m race between these two and Corry and Worsley I would expect Kiwi domination. Meanwhile McCaw is able to get himself across the field at an extraordinary rate - he fully sprints to the breakdown time after time and there is no way that Moody can keep up. The NZ back-row arrive to at the breakdown quickly and fiercely, enabling the scrum-half to get the ball out quickly and thus setting up a decent attacking opportunity. It is basic but has yet to be fully taken on board by England. All three players specialise in their positions, McCaw the Neil Back of his day but physically more impressive, Collins the hardest hitter in world rugby, and So'oialo the typical all-rounder.
England can simply not expect to match this with the players that currently pull on the white shirts. In Magnus Lund we have a player more like Richie McCaw than anyone else. In last year's Guinness Premiership grand-final Lund outplayed Moody - he was quicker to everything by just a small degree, but every half of a second gained a crucial advantage. In James Forrester we have a player capable of getting around the pitch at high-speed for 80 minutes. Forrester is quicker than Corry could ever hope to be and has the ball-skills to match to the extent that he has filled in at centre for Gloucester on a few occasions. Moody and Sanderson remain the obvious options for the blindside role as both are experienced in the position and both are quicker than Joe Worsley. Tom Rees is also pushing for selection having played superbly for Wasps, he is an openside it would seem and has the pace to back that up although I feel that he is the closest we have to Richard Hill and a future at blindside is far from unlikely.

While early back-row troubles were always on the cards for Robinson it has been this past 6 months that have been most concerning for England fans. Robinson has made very little use of this trio of youngsters, although in Forrester's case injury has been a major stumbling block. Magnus Lund began at blindside against Australia in the summer and was probably England's best player before being taken off after 55 minutes. In the same game Sanderson began his stint as number 8 for England. This situation has to be the most confusing of Robinson's reign since he hauled off Henry Paul after 20 minutes also against the Aussies. Although the England backline suddenly had a degree of pace it also had three players playing out of position, a totally ludicrous state of affairs. Lund who is an out and out 7 wore 6, Sanderson wore 8 despite a career on the flank and Moody continued in his misguided role as an openside. Worsley was brought on for Lund as if competiting at the breakdown was a crime! Lund did not reappear for the second test as we had hoped, Michael Lipman taking the seven jersey and doing a solid job, Worsley and Sanderson taking the other jerseys.

Attempting to prove that he had learnt nothing at all from previous matches Robinson then selected Sanderson at 8, moved Corry to 6 as if it was his position that caused his lack of pace, and kept Moody at 7 in one of stubbornest moves of all time. England stuttered, fired, collapsed and briefly fired again before dying out completely. Nothing for Robinson to do then but select the same back-row for the next match, afterall the simple fact that England didn't get completely annihilated at the breakdown suggested there was hope. The result was a seventh straight defeat against an Argentina who had far less time to prepare than their counterparts. Fearing that such a performance against Argentina may suggest that the back-row were at fault in some way Robinson made changes: Worsley came back to counteract the size of SA, Sanderson finally moved to openside and Corry moved back to 8. Robinson's experiment of moving Corry to blindside failed to help him hit rucks before they were effectively over so it was back to square one.

So the summer tour came and went and now the autumn internationals are nearly over. So what have we learnt? That Magnus Lund is a class act when allowed on the pitch? That Sanderson having rarely played at 8 is indeed not a world class number 8? That Moody has not suddenly developed into a breakdown maestro? That Worsley is simply not good enough at top level? That Corry lacks pace or skill? If it has taken 5 games to learn these things then progress is going to be very slow indeed, most rugby fans could have pointed these things out twelve months ago.
One game remains for Robinson and England before we head towards the six-nations and attempt to hit the top half of the competition for the first time in three years. So in what way shall we experiment with the back-row? In what way can we seek to improve an under-performing area?

The answer..................................We shall pick the same players as usual and hope that it gets better. No Lund, no Rees, the line-up for this weekend is Worsley, Sanderson and Corry. Yet I can't deny there is progress of a sort - after 6 moths of fiddling we at least now have an openside more suited to the role and no player out of position. This is headway. Well done Robbo we have learnt much this autumn. We have learnt that you know even less about back-row selection than we gave you credit for beforehand, and that was little believe me!

Guinness Premiership tipping league stats

2006-11-23T00:00:00.000Z

We are now over a third of the way through the Guinness Premiership season and I thought it may be a good idea to take a look at the success of the tipping league so far. As a whole we are just under £4900 in profit after 8 rounds and 240 tips. That's around 20% profit.
This is a very good starting point but what if we could dramatically reduce the number of selections to only those that a number of people agree on - a few popular choices. Well here is a rundown of how the most popular picks have faired so far:

Week 1
Picked by 3 people: Northampton to beat Newcastle at 4/11. Winner, returned £36.36

Week 2
Picked by 3 people: Wasps to beat London Irish at 4/11. Winner returned £36.36
Picked by 4 people: Sale to beat Northampton at 1/5. Winner returned £20
Picked by 4 people: London Irish +7.5 against Wasps. Winner returned £90.91
Picked by 4 people: Worcester +7.5 against Newcastle. Winner returned £90.91

Week 3
Picked by 3 people: Gloucester +6.5 against Leicester. Winner returned £90.91
Picked by 4 people: Bristol +9.5 against London Irish. Winner returned £90.91
Picked by 5 people: Bath to beat Northampton at 5/4. Loser returned -£100

Week 4
Picked by 3 people: Saracens +11.5 against Sale. Winner returned +90.91Picked by 3 people: Wasps to beat Bristol at 4/7. Loser returned -£100
Picked by 4 people: Gloucester to beat Northampton at 4/11. Winner returned £36.36
Picked by 4 people: Leicester to beat Harlequins at 4/11. Winner returned £36.36
Picked by 4 people: Leicester -8.5 against Harlequins . Loser returned -£100
Picked by 5 people: London Irish to beat at evens. Winner returned £100.
Picked by 6 people: Bath to beat at 1/4. Winner returned £25

Week 5
Picked by 3 people: Bristol to beat Harlequins at 4/11. Winner returned £36.36
Picked by 3 people: Sale -4.5 against London Irish. Winner returned £90.91
Picked by 4 people: Northampton +5.5 against Leicester. Winner returned £90.91
Picked by 5 people: Sale to beat London Irish at 8/13. Winner returned £61.64
Picked by 5 people: Gloucester to beat Worcester at 2/5. Winner returned £40

Week 6
Picked by 3 people: Harlequins to beat Northampton at 11/10. Winner returned £110.
Picked by 3 people: Newcastle to beat Bristol at 10/11. Winner returned £90.91.
Picked by 3 people: Worcester +11.5 against Leicester. Loser returned -£100
Picked by 5 people: Sale to beat Wasps at 4/6. Winner returned £66.66.

Week 7
Picked by 3 people: Bristol to beat Sale at evens. Winner returned £100
Picked by 4 people: Gloucester to beat London Irish at 10/11. Winner returned £90.91
Picked by 4 people: Saracens to beat Leicester at 4/5. Winner returned £80
Picked by 5 people: Harlequins to beat Newcastle at 15/8. Winner returned £187.50
Picked by 7 people: Harlequins +5.5 against Newcastle. Winner returned £90.91
Picked by 9 people: Worcester to beat Northampton at 10/11. Loser returned -£100

Week 8
Picked by 3 people: Sale -14.5 against Newcastle. Loser returned -£100
Picked by 3 people: Saracens to beat Northampton at evens. Winner returned £100
Picked by 3 people: Leicester to beat London Irish at 4/11. Winner returned £36.36
Picked by 5 people: Harlequins to beat Worcester at 4/9. Winner returned £44.44

As we can see there are plenty of winners in this list.
The overall stats are thus: 34 total selections making a profit to £100 level stakes of £1462.50. A profit percentage of 43%. Now that is quite extraordinary even if we factor in a fall in price on a few of them.

By removing all of those only chosen by 3 people we cut down the number of selections to 20 and the profit becomes £943.42. That is a profit of 47%.

Better than any tipping service I know of!

Fixtures up until Christmas

2006-11-20T21:58:00.000Z

Friday 24th November

GP
Bristol v Gloucester
Sale v Harlequins

Saturday 25th November

Internationals
England v SA
Scotland v Australia
Wales v New Zealand
France v Argentina

GP
Bath v Newcastle

Sunday 26th November

GP
Saracens v Worcester
London Irish v Northampton
Wasps v Leicester

Magners League
Munster v Ospreys

Friday 1st December

EDF cup
Gloucester v Bath
Cardiff Blues v London Irish
Newcastle v Harlequins
Sale v Llanelli

Magners League
Edinburgh v Borders

Saturday 2nd December

EDF cup
Worcester v Dragons
Northampton v Leicester
Ospreys v Bristol

Magners League
Munster v Connacht

Sunday 3rd December

EDF cup
Saracens v Wasps

Magners League
Ulster v Leinster

Friday 8th December

Heineken Cup
Bourgoin v Leicester

Saturday 9th December

Heineken Cup
Borders v Biarritz
Calvisano v Ospreys
Overmach Parma v Northampton
Gloucester v Edinburgh
Llanelli v Toulouse
London Irish v Ulster
Castres v Perpignan
Leinster v Agen

Sunday 10th December

Heineken cup
Cardiff Blues v Munster
Wasps v Treviso
Stade Francais v Sale

Friday 15th December

Heineken Cup
Ospreys v Calvisano
Ulster v London Irish
Perpignan v Castres

Saturday 16th December

Heineken cup
Toulouse v Llanelli
Leicester v Bourgoin
Treviso v Wasps
Northampton v Overmach Parma
Agen v Leinster
Munster v Cardiff

Sunday 17th December

Heineken cup
Edinburgh v Gloucester
Biarritz v Borders
Sale v Stade Francais

Friday 22nd December

GP
Gloucester v Newcastle
Bath v Sale
Leicester v Bristol
Harlequins v Saracens
Northampton v Wasps
Worcester v London Irish

Magners League
Llanelli v Dragons
Glasgow v Edinburgh

Saturday 23rd December

Magners League
Cardiff Blues v Ospreys

Autumn International tipping comp after round 3

2006-11-19T19:04:00.000Z

Pretty disastrous week alround. Far too many people getting stuffed on late, late shows. England's comeback and Argentina's late penalty really hitting the profit margin hard.

1st Big Dunc £375.18
2nd Furelli £319.46
3rd Ace Rothstein £315.18
4th Freshman £274.27
5th MWAP £183.36
6th Ruck and Roll £109.11
7th AH £80.91
8th Kerrybhoy £52.45
9th Sparkles -£9.09
10th Boxman -£51.52
11th RugbyMan -£74.73
12th Vickersa -£218.18
13th Dribbler -£219.09
14th WAZ -£309.09
15th Albion -£409.09
16th Second Row -£709.09

Overall we are down by £279.96

Guinness Premiership tipping comp after round 8

2006-11-19T10:36:00.000Z

It's getting tight at the top now. Rugbynut still ahead but there's not much in it. Two good results for me to make up for blunders in the autumn international comp.

1. RugbyNut £841.73
2. RugbyMan £810.23
3. Boxman £780.01
4. MWAP £734.86
5. Big Dunc £473.81
6. Furelli £471.18
7. Ace Rothstein £400.33
8. Ruck and Roll £374.14
9. Albion £175.32
10. Uncle Jam £163.6
11. AH £79.32
12. The Man £42.72
13. Db2 £25
14. Sparkles £0
15. Vickersa -£27.73
16. Oo R Ya £-142.43
17. Thatsarighttouch -£228.29

Up £561.15 for the weekend thanks mostly to Harlequins and Sarries.
Overall we are £4884.75 in profit from 240 bets.

Congratulations to Furelli for already reaching the qualifying number of 30 tips. After just 8 weeks that is.

Apologies

2006-11-18T18:43:00.000Z

Yes the Pacific Islanders tip turned out to be rubbish. Mainly I apologise for suggesting the handicap was a good idea as I did not take it myself. I took the outright for exactly the resons stated in the preview and took a loss at 11/4. Such is life, and a 11/4 is not to tough to write off. The Islanders failed to connect in the first half but came good again in the second winning that half easily. Caucau was not fully fit although he stilled looked good at times. When they sorted themselves out the Islanders looked very dangerous but Scotland were organised enough to be worth their win. Now on to Ireland for the Islanders and another very tough game.

Autumn internationals tipping comp - round 3

2006-11-17T14:27:00.000Z

Wales 1/100, Canada 66/1
Handicap: Wales -46.5
Total points: Under or over 67.5

England 4/6, South Africa 6/4
Handicap: England -4.5
Total points: Under or over 42.5

Scotland 2/5, Pacific Islands 5/2
Handicap: Scotland -8.5
Total points: Under or over 49.5

France 13/2, New Zealand 1/7
Handicap: France -14.5
Total points: Under or over 46.5

Italy 11/8, Argentina 8/11
Handicap: Argentina -3.5
Total points: Under or over 45.5

Ireland 8/13, Australia 13/8
Handicap: Ireland -4.5

Handicaps = 10/11
Total points = 9/10

Premiership tipping comp - round 8

2006-11-17T14:22:00.000Z

Friday night games:

Harlequins 4/9, Worcester 9/4
Handicap: Quins -7.5

Sale 1/7, Newcastle 6/1
Handicap: Sale -14.5

Saturday games:

Northampton evs, Saracens evs
No Handicap

Leicester 4/11, London Irish 11/4
Handicap: Leicester -8.5

Gloucester 4/7, Wasps 7/4
Handicap: Gloucester -5.5

Bath evs, Bristol evs
No Handicap

Caucau's return - a look at Scotland v the Islanders

2006-11-16T16:09:00.000Z

Scotland have named a strong line-up for this match although there are some very noticeable absentees:

15 Chris Paterson
14 Simon Webster
13 Marcus Di Rollo
12 Andrew Henderson
11 Sean Lamont
10 Dan Parks
9 Chris Cusiter

1 Gavin Kerr
2 Dougie Hall
3 Euan Murray
4 Nathan Hines
5 Scott Murray
6 Simon Taylor
7 Kelly Brown
8 Johnnie Beattie

No Ali Hogg and no Jason White unfortunately, which means the back-row is considerably weaker. Other than that it is for the most part full-strength. The scrum is still rubbish and the backline never particularly likely to score tries, but as a unit Scotland have improved dramatically.

The Pacific Islanders have a few changes but who knows what is full-strength for them:

9 Moses Rauluni
10 Tusi Pisi
11 Rupeni Caucaunibuca
12 Elvis Seveali’i
13 Kameli Ratuvou
14 Lome Fa’atau
15 Norman Ligairi

1 Taufa’ao Felise
2 Mahonri Schwalger
3 Tevita Taumoepeau
4 Simon Raiwalui
5 Daniel Leo
6 Viliami Vaki
7 Nili Latu
8 Epi Taione

I would have liked to see a Mapasua and Rabeni midfield combination but Ratuvou had an excellent cameo against Wales. With a back-three of Caucau, Fa'atau and Ligairi there is no doubting where the danger is. The quest for the rest of the team will be to get the ball to these men in a little bit of space.

Form:
Scotland had an excellent six-nations of course catching France fast asleep and squelching past England in the mud of Murrayfield. Form didn't quite hold up throughout though - a loss to Wales, a fortunate late victory over Italy and a tight loss to Ireland (although had the rain stayed away I am certain that it would not have been tight). Their games in the summer against South Africa suggested both that they are a better team these days and also that they have still some way to go. Their win against Romania last week suggested that they can get away with forward passes and knock-ons and also run through terrible tackling.

The Islanders have little form to go on. Their first three tests were in NZ, Aus and SA two years ago and they performed admirably but were defeated. This is a different team and their only result is last weeks defeat to Wales. Simply can't read too much into that game as they had no time to train beforehand. the result being that the set-piece was a mess and communication in the backline was poor. This week they will have had a week to sort things out and there was plenty of promise shown in the last 20 minutes of the Wales game, suggesting a upturn in performance.

Players:

Not all the Islanders will be familiar to most people. In fact some of the Scots are unfamiliar to most people but there is still plenty to go on. Let's start with the big one......

Caucau v Webster
Simon Webster is a player who has improved steadily over the last year or two. He has a jinking style of running and enough pace to get him through a few gaps. Edges out Southwell from the back-three and will relish his chance. Unfortunately he is up against undoubtedly the world's best winger (on his day). Caucau is an enigma and a very special player. While the Sivivatu's and Rokocoko's of the world run in tries for NZ, Caucau will score tries for any team. At lowly Agen he has top-scored in the French league in both of his two seasons, for Fiji he has run in plenty of tries whenever fitness, mental health, availability and passport control have allowed him (9 tries in 6 games). Scotland were extremely lucky to get through their group in the previous world cup as a slightly overweight Caucau ripped them to shreds. He scored two, deserved three or four, and was easily man of the match. Now he is back from a troublesome summer and although his fitness is not at 100% the rest of his game is. Despite looking a bit fat he played superbly in Agen's win over Gloucester a few weeks back. If Caucau hits top speed Webster wont know what to do, if he doesn't hit stop speed he can still run his opposite number over and continue on to the next unfortunate defender.

Fa'atau v Lamont
To be fair to Scotland if we focus on one wing we ought not to miss out the other where their chances are much better. Lamont is the main attacking weapon of this Scottish team and he is both quick and strong. Fa'atau in a straight footrace would easily beat Lamont but there would only be one winner in a tackling competition. Fa'atau scores tries but doesn't do too much else. Lamont is an all-round winger always looking to get involved. Lamont the better player but not always the most effective.

The front-rows
Who are these people? In both cases it is tough to know exactly what the virtues of each of the players are. Scotland do not have a great front-row, they are too light for one thing and the throwing in of their hookers has been a problem in recent, and distant, times. Felise plays for the Cardiff Blues, Taumoepau for Worcester and Schwalger for Welligton so they are certainly the more well-travelled. After a week together to work on set-pieces the Islanders should be able to at the very least hold their own here against the lighter Scots.

The back-rows
Again a fair number of players a lot of people will never have heard of. Simon Taylor has returned to the Scotland team and that is a boost but as yet I have seen nothing special from Brown or Beattie. Scotland will miss White and Hogg, that much is certain. The Islanders were outdone at the breakdown last week by a keen Welsh team who used the referee to full advantage. Hands went in at every ruck and Wales got away with it time after time. The Islanders will have learnt from that and they have enough mobility to push Scotland here. Vaki, Latu and Taione have to help their tight forwards take the ball up the middle this week and if they do so effectively space will appear outside. Then Scotland are in trouble. If they fail to suck Scottish defenders in they will negate their best attacking opportunities.

Verdict
Scotland could well win this. They are at home and have a fairly settled team while the travelling Islanders have no such continuity. The problem is that the Islanders have more pace and power than their northern opponents and a fair bit more individual skill. The game hangs on how the Islanders adapt: if a week is long enough for them to achieve some structure we should see party-time out wide, if they still play like strangers Scotland will strangle them up-front. It's very much in the balance but what I can say is that Scotland should never be short-price favourites. 11/4 is currently available on the Pacific Islanders and should be taken. There is also the case of the Islanders +9 on the handicap and that is good value as well although my instinct is to take the outright as if the Islanders play well they should win, if they play poorly they probably wont come close. It's hardly out of the question for the Islanders to score a couple of early tries. Prices could change rapidly in-running on this game.

Pride and Prejudice - The reign of Robbo

2006-11-15T17:17:00.000Z

It began on the 13th November 2004. Andy Robinson watched his first England team run in 12 tries in a glorious display of running rugby that had the world quaking in it's over-sized rugby boots. Well, not quite, but 70-0 against Canada was a good enough result to encourage optimism and boost confidence in the fracturing but just about stable England squad. World cup hero Jason Robinson took the captain's armband and ran in a hat-trick of tries. A pointless fixture in many respects but at least it served to give Robinson a 100% record for a while. More impressive was the fact that the 100% record lasted for another week when England beat SA in a strong all-round performance. Their pack got on top of the South African's and Charlie Hodgson made the most of things. Now there was genuine excitement, England had been 20-6 up at half-time and rounded things off 32-16 against one of the world's best sides. Robinson had established that Worsley, Moody and Corry was his best possible back-row despite a noticeable lack of pace and a blinside playing at openside. But it worked, and so did Henry Paul's inclusion at centre.

Next up Australia for the cook cup. Robinson would round of his first set of fixtures with a sparkling record if victory was achieved and England could look towards the six-nations with hope after the lethargy of the year following the world cup triumph. Robinson panicked and he panicked bad. Twenty minutes into the match he decided Henry Paul was not the man for the job after all. Replacing him with Will Greenwood would sort things out, but what happens if your fly-half, the most important player in your team, gets injured? Paul was cover for the pivot position and kicking cover as well. A bizarre gamble that failed to come off, Hodgson went off injured at a crucial stage and was replaced by Harry Ellis, Ellis went to scrum-half and Andy Gommarsal moved to fly-half. England couldn't get the ball through the posts with Hodgson on at things didn't look likely to improve in that respect. Oddly Mike Tindall eventually stepped up and smacked two excellent kicks through the posts for some much needed points. The damage was done already though. England were 12-0 down at half-time and it proved too much. They had the power and the possession but Australia made so much more from their ball than England could. 21-19 to Australia and that 'New Dawn' suddenly looked more like the mid-morning malaise of the previous 12 months.

Onto the six-nations then. Already some were questioning Robinson and his bizarre substitutions but it was early days. Having come third in last years event England were looking for a return to the top this year and Wales were the first hurdle. In one word: disaster. Following up from the substitution debacle of the previous game Robinson went one better by playing an 18 year old at centre. For all the pace and ability that Matt Tait offered it was still an unbelievable risk to play someone so young in an important game. He had just 12 first team appearences for Newcastle under his belt. Added to this Robinson's prefered back-row were all unavailable and Chris Jones, Andy Hazell and Joe Worsley came in to win ball, something they collectively failed to do. Tait was given a lesson in international rugby by Wales and slick-haired nancy-boy Gavin Henson built a career on one big tackle on a teenager and one big kick. Robinson declared that England had failed to "front-up" and would have to "front-up" next week against the French to stand a chance. At least we understood why we lost then.

It all started so well, England up 17-6 at half-time. But an eleven point lead at home turned out to be inadequate and Dimitry Yachvilli punished England 3 points at a time until London had again born witness to a succesful French invasion. Jason Robinson was feeling the pressure as captain, an odd choice in the first place and a reluctant one to boot. Robinson was feeling the pressure as coach; his new centre-partnership of Noon and Barkley hadn't bought victory and neither had the return of his favourite back-row. What next?

Defeat to Ireland was next. Not a heinous crime to lose at Lansdowne road, but that made it three defeats from three games. No chance of success from this tournament and the best that could be hoped for was to beat convincingly the two poorest teams in the competition. A hat-trick of tries from Mark Cueto and a 39-7 victory over Italy saved permanent embarrasment. The game was interesting for the appearence of Ollie Smith in England's midfield; a player that many people believed to be the obvious solution for the gap in the centre having impressed time after time for Leicester. Smith may have felt he was finally in with a chance of regular England games but such was not to be. Eighteen year olds, lazy Kiwis, and fly-halves would all be picked ahead of Smith at some point in Robbo's reign. England went on to beat a poor Scotland at Twickenham by 44 points to 22 with Jamie Noon scoring a hat-trick. A light in the darkness; England could at least beat poor teams at home even if a truly decent result eluded them. Smith made it onto the pitch again but only as a replacement. He would go onto perform admirably on the Lions tour, but not to be picked for England again up to the present day.

After a six-nations that by English standards could only be termed "pathetic", England needed a better showing in the Autumn internationals. They kicked off with a game against Australia at Twickenham. The Aussies bought over a welath of backline talent that they had used the previous year to rob England. Eddie Jones and the Australian rugby authorities had finally reached the pinnacle of their masterplan of doing away with prop-forwards and now used two fat lads wearing tutus. Al Baxter, one of the worst props to ever play for a major international team, did Robinson a big favour as he and Matt Dunning were continually crushed under the weight of England's scrum. Greg Holmes was no better either but finally, after a yellow-card and numerous penalties, Dunning reverted to type and used his head for the first time. He went down and feigned injury. Uncontested scrums were called and England's main offensive weapon was lost. Despite a huge advantage in possession England were only able to win by 26 points to 16, but a win is a win. Robinson was happy to point out that England had "fronted-up". Against what exactly? Venezuela have a stronger front-row! Pat Sanderson finally made his way into the England line-up but someone needed to point out that he and Moody should have swapped shirts, both being out of position. This game also saw the start of the wonderful Tindall-Noon midfield combination that frightened exactly nobody over the next six months.

Now that the Aussies had been overcame England went on to face the mighty all-blacks and were widely tipped to get walloped. Oddly they didn't. A early Martin Corry try helped England shutdown New Zealand's attack for long periods. A battling performance saw them completely fail to be blown away although at one point in the second-half it seemed certain that NZ would go clear. A last gasp effort saw Ben Cohen bundled into touch after yet another inept backline move. Plenty of promise but in the end England were not good enough. Robinson was glad as England had certainly "fronted-up" but yet again it was their inability to make use of their possession that had counted. A 40-3 victory over Samoa proved very little other than that Lewis Moody is 'temperamental' and that landing multiple punches isn't necesarily a citable offence, Semo Sititti the fortunate party in yet another inconsistent citing debacle.

Some decent results then in the Autumn but many were unconvinced about Robinson's tenure. The 2006 six-nations would tell the full story, Robinson had had plenty of time to build a team and there could be no excuses this time. Fourth was unaceptable once, twice would be a farce. Robinson stuck with his pedestrian and unbalanced back-row of Worsley, Moody and Corry. He stuck with his crash-bang-fumble midfield partnership of Tindall and Noon. Despite a lack of tries and very average performances Ben Cohen continued his comeback with a spot on the left-wing. England beat Wales 47-13 in what on the surface was a convincing win. Wales in actual fact were in dire straits behind the scenes and on the brink of implosion. England had beaten a team that would struggle terribly all year. But at least they had "fronted-up". Lawrence Dallaglio's return to the fold was unsettling and probably unneccessary, undermining the captaincy of Martin Corry - something which was already being questioned in many areas.

An away win, 31-16, against Italy again proved little although the Italians were certainly a tougher proposition this time around. Scotland at Murrayfield was next and was a game England were expected to win despite Scotland's upturn in form. They lost 18-12 in one of shoddiest performances ever seen by a team in white. Scotland deserved their victory as England simply didn't ever look likely to score a try. Ben Cohen, after a poor performance against Wales, had a one-on-one five yards from the line but dropped the ball. A complete inability to get the ball wide cost England dear. Robinson was on the rocks, England an embarrasment to their fans. But there was worse to come, France were next and always had to be considered tough opposition. Fortunately for the French England continuously blundered throughout the match and were no better than the 25 point margin suggested. 31-6 to France, England fans hanging their heads all over the world. A massive upturn in performance was needed against Ireland, and it came. But England still lost the game 28-24. At least this time they could consider themselves unlucky, but defeat is defeat and England did not do enough. Fourth in the six-nations again. Robinson would go surely? Apparently not as England were 'building' towards the world cup. Whatever they were 'building' they were doing a very good job of being secretive about it. Ben Cohen had kept his place on the left-wing throughout despite doing almost nothing at all of any worth. Robinson's back-row had continually under-performed and the England midfield looked at no point liable to create anything other than a pile of bodies in the middle of the pitch. Players such as Lewsey and Grewcock had been blamed for under-performing but Lewsey had not been given a break from rugby in three years and was paying the price for the RFU's ridiculous scheduling.

A disastrous and somewhat pointless two-match tour of Australia was the start of a 'new era'. Brian Ashton and John Wells had replaced Phil Larder and Joe Lydon as Robinson's coaching staff. The RFU had decided that Robinson was not at fault but his sub-ordinates were. People who believe such things are likely to be the same people that believe in 'world peace'. After the embarrasment and humiliation of getting beaten 34-3 and 43-18 by the Aussies England returned home to roll out the excuses. Fans clamoured for the resignation of Robinson but he, and the RFU, put their fingers in their ears and said "na, na, na, I'm not listening". Afterall with the new coaches in position England were liable to surge forward into 2007. Rob Andrew was appointed to some nonsense position that nobody fully understands in order to oversee England's...........erm........ well whatever it was England were doing.

And now we reach the autumn internationals again - two years after Robinson's appointment. England faced the mighty all-blacks when a game against Portugal would have been more sensible. On a run of 5 straight defeats New Zealand are not the team anyone wants to face. England were truly unfortunate to be denied a try to put them 5-3 up with possibly the worst ever video ref decision, but followed up their dissapointment by gifting the game to NZ. 41-20 in the end and England were outclassed throughout. Six straight defeats now but a home tie against Argentina would set the record straight. Argentina had hardly any time together to train and were noticeably rusty. This didn't stop them running out 25-18 winners against a England team looking every bit as hopeless as at any time in the previous two years. Seven defeats on the trot. SA to come, but on the plus side England get two chances against the Saffers.

So after 8 victories in 20 games Robinson has turned the world-cup holders into a muddling bunch of individuals who simply don't appear to know what they are doing. It's not all Robinson's fault though: he is swimming against the tide as far as scheduling goes, England's internationals asked to play far too many games in a ridiculously confused and cluttered season. The RFU have done the groundwork for England's decline and Robinson has simply accelerated the progress. This is no one-man show, Robinson is aided in all facets by Francis Baron and his suited cronies. Between them they have made England a laughing stock. And when will the revolution begin? Not while anyone can still remember 2003 and the William Webb-Ellis trophy I feel. Yet again England are held back by their history.

Robinson, the coaches, even Martin Corry are continuously being asked to submit written reports of their performances and how they feel they are progressing. If the members of the RFU are unable to understand what is going on without reading about it in reports how have they come to be in their jobs in the first place?

Incompetence and Inconsequence

2006-11-14T15:10:00.000Z

"No man is an Island, intire of itself;" a wise man called John Donne once wrote, "every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main". And so it is in rugby, no man can achieve anything alone, he needs the support of his colleagues and to support his colleagues in turn. To keep up this loose analogy I would have to refer to England as an archipelago, a loose band of islands grouped together by geographical proximity, but not connected. They resemble a ship without a rudder, prevented from going to far off course by the lines on the pitch but sailing blindly through the storm. Can a team that plays in such a way ever win? Maybe occasionally, but certainly not consistently. This England team has lurched from poor performance to poor performance in recent times, seven defeats in a row now - an unenviable record- and few signs of relief. Their own hope of revival appears to be that SA are also having difficulties, but whether or not they are as bad as Ireland made them look is another question entirely.

So who is to blame? Are the players simply of such a poor standard that their pathetic performances are the best that can be hoped for? Well frankly no they are not that poor, but they look 'rudderless' to the extreme. Watching an entire England performance tends to give the impression that they are not sure what they are supposed to be doing and this is the fault of the man at the top. Andy Robinson is the man who must sort this out, it is up to him to ensure that his players are clear about their jobs on the field, it is up to him to ensure that the team plays as a unit and not a collection of confused individuals. Scotland for instance have achieved this: from the dark days of Matt Williams' tenure it has taken very little time for Frank Hadden to turn Scotland into a TEAM. They are not a highly skilled bunch of players - some are certainly talented indeed - Blair, Taylor, Hogg for instance - but as a whole the squad is generally lacking in individual ability. They have neither the players nor the resources to beat teams like England. Their results have improved dramatically due to the improvement in cohesion and morale, wins over France and England achieved as a unit.

For Robinson the main concern is that England should "front-up" against whoever they play, such is his love of the term he uses it for every single interview before and after every single game. No detailed analysis of performances from him, just a suggestion that standing up big and strong should be enough, unless "front-up" actually means something much more technical that none of us understand. England have failed to "front-up" all too often though, not because of lack of effort on the players part but simply because their opposition is better organised. Somehow Argentina, despite obvious rust, managed to look better organised despite the bare minimum of training together and a total absence of decent competition for them throughout the rugby year. The England players are not voicing their objections of the coach, there appears to be no 'internal squabbles' as such, but from body language on and off the pitch they betray their feelings. And what player could be happy in a team that has lost so many games?

But should Robinson be the scapegoat? It is obvious to the world as a whole that he is the weak link in the England chain, but can we blame it entirely on him? No, as I have no doubt that he has given his all but has come up short. The question we must ask is who made the decision to hire him, and much more pertanently - who has failed to make the decision to fire him? The men of the RFU are behind this, and Francis Baron is the commander in chief. Men in suits who make important decisions, but are these men qualified? No more so than the man they appointed it would seem. Where it has become clear to all that Robinson is not the man for the job and that no amount of time will change that fact, the RFU have singularly failed to realise this. If life was ever fair both Robinson and the main decision-makers at the RFU would lose their jobs for the debacle that English rugby is now in (and in this we could include the farcical structure of the English rugby season and the strains that it places on the elite players). Professional sport afterall is about winning and England have failed to do that with any regularity since Robinson was appointed.

So Andy Robinson "do not send to know for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee". Your previous coaches have already been sacked as scapegoats for poor performance, and there is nobody left to take the blame. Those above you will not suffer as you are their scapegoat.

The question now is this: What is best for English rugby? Should we desperately hope that England stop their losing run with a victory against SA this weekend? It would bring blessed relief to the nerves of the poor fan, but is it best for England in the long run. The current regime is broken, the structure of English rugby is chaotic, English clubs are obsessed with strength over skills, we fall behind other nations not only on the pitch at Twickenham but in so many aspects. Even Ireland, rarely in days past an organised and effective union, have overtaken us in performance and preperation, their succesful team a product of good club structure and treatment of their stars.

Revolution is needed and it is needed quickly. While New Zealand and Ireland, even Wales and Scotland, improve and prosper England, despite her riches, remains the poor relation in world rugby. The problems in the England team are plain to see, but the causes are much deeper than a misfiring bunch of players and a head coach out of his depth. We will look at the state of the English rugby calender in due course......

Overall tipping league

2006-11-13T12:23:00.000Z

This is how it stands at the moment in the competition for the overall title. Not everyone listed but only those with over £300 profit for now.

1st Big Dunc £1276.41
2nd Boxman £934.51
3rd MWAP £854.86
4th Rugbynut £797.29
5th Ace Rothstein £718.62
6th RugbyMan £693.62
7th Ruck and Roll £436.87
8th Freshman £403.64
9th Furelli £302.32

Will find out the exact rules later but the basic condition is that you must reach the qualifying number of tips in 2 of the 4 competitions. For this reason Rugbynut for example will not qualify currently.

How are the previews doing so far?

2006-11-13T11:23:00.000Z

After two rounds of Autumn internationals and four extensive previews it would seem to be a good time to have a quick look at the success rate so far. International rugby is easily the most profitable sports-betting arena for me so we should see something decent at least................

Wales v Australia
Rugbyman says: Wales 25 - 20 Australia
Actual result: Wales 29 - 29 Australia

Was well aware by game-time that I had underplayed the number of points that would be scored. 30-25 would have been more sensible, but it was a bit late to change my prediction by then. This game could have been a 5 point victory to Wales, it could have been a 5 point victory to Australia. In the end the draw doesn't help me as far as this tip goes, but anyone who reads the betfair forum will know about my love of the draw in rugby matches. The draw was traded at up to 39/1 pre-match although the main bulk was around the 31/1 or 33/1 mark. Anything over 30/1 for a game so tight as to have both teams at even money is a big, big price. I was able to get 37/1 on the Italy v Scotland game being a draw in the six-nations and 41/1 on Wales v Italy (which was a draw). A losing tip at even money here but not one that worries me in the slightest!

England v New Zealand

Rugbyman says: England 16-34 New Zealand
Actual result: England 20-41 New Zealand

Oddly I had predicted this game to be higher scoring even though had anyone asked me I would have said the Wales game would have more points. In the end the England game had 3 points more. Again there were more points in the game than I had predicted - a result of an intercept try, abysmal English tackling and Nonu's strange approach to defense. The points difference was nearly correct though, 21 points instead of my predicted 18. This put's me on the right side of the handicap and made a disastrous afternoon for a fan turn into a decent afternoon for a punter.

Italy v Australia

Rugbyman says: Italy 19 - 31 Australia
Actual result: Italy 18 - 25 Australia

Could never quite bring myslef to back Italy at 10/1 despite feeling they would get mighty close. Worked out fine in the end but I would have been sick if they had held on. The handicap line of around 21 or 22 points start for Italy was attacked though.
"A strong Italy performance and they could get within ten at worst. I genuinely feel that with a bit of fortune and a lot of effort Italy can win this game, but more likely is that they lose by about 12."
So not bad at all, 1 point out on Italy and 6 points out on Australia.

England v Argentina

Rugbyman says: England 26 -22 Argentina
Actual result: England 18 - 25 Argentina

In many respects my best result of the four so far.
"Argentina are a match for England on paper, they are a match for England in results, they are more than a match for England in confidence. Argentina over-priced again at 4/1 and with a 13 point start."
9/2 on Argentina could be found on Betfair and I chose to lay England at 1.25 and some extra on the draw to keep the draw as my major earner. As England attacked the line in the dying minutes I gripped my seat in vain hope that they would stumble over for a try to level the scores, but alas, that would be asking too much of an incompetent bunch. Whether Argentina were the better team is open to debate but what seems certain is that 11 or 12 points start was far too much. Thankyou very much. 8 points out on England and 3 out on Argentina is unimpressive, but was on the right side of the handicap and a 4 point margin of course suggests 9/2 is far too big outright. If only the France v NZ game had gone this well.....................

Conclusion
Could be better but could be much worse. Two games where I have been heavy on the draw have traded at below 6/1 in-running, one of which was indeed a draw in the end. Unfortunately I did the same thing on the Ireland v SA match and that was far from succesful, but at 30/1+ you can afford a few blow-outs. Yet to get a prediction spot-on but that would be asking a lot - three out of four handicaps will do the job. Roll on next weekend and the highlight - Ireland v Australia. The England v SA game may be interesting for the fact that England will probably have to give away points on the handicap again!

Guinness Premiership tipping comp after round 7

2006-11-12T17:11:00.000Z

Harlequins and Worcester both attracted a fair amount of attention this weekend. Worcester really ought to have won but they are in trouble now. Quins stormed home at 15/8 with nine of us picking them outright, handicapped, or both.

1. RugbyNut £797.29
2. MWAP £723.95
3. Boxman £680.01
4. RugbyMan £619.32
5. Big Dunc £573.81
6. Ace Rothstein £355.89
7. Furelli £290.38
8. Ruck and Roll £283.23
9. Uncle Jam £163.6
10. AH £79.32
11. The Man £42.72
12. Vickersa £27.83
13. Db2 £25
14. Albion -£18.18
15. Thatsarighttouch -£109.09
16. Oo R Ya £-142.43

That's a profit £1281.15 profit this week from 38 tips. (+33.7%)
An overall profit of £4323.6 from 219 tips (+19%)

Extremely good tipping all round, well done everyone.

Autumn International tipping comp after round 2

2006-11-12T15:50:00.000Z

Not clever by me this week. Went with the two handicaps that I tipped on this very blog, but also went with PI and Romania to overcome their handicaps. Also failed to go with Argentina at 4/1 despite strongly supporting their value at this price. If I had any sense you would all be in trouble. As it is I am 7th. Wow. Congrats to Ace Rothstein with 4 out of 4 this weekend.

1st Ace Rothstein £362.73
2nd Freshman £321.82
3rd Big Dunc £272.73
4th MWAP £230.91
5th Furreli £221.82
6th AH £180.91
7th RugbyMan £162.73
8th Boxman £90.91
9th Ruck and Roll £90
10th Stewardsenquiery £0
11th Albion -£9.09
12th Dribbler -£200

Which I make as a profit £1725.47 overall. Not bad everyone, not bad at all.

Autumn international tipping comp - round 2

2006-11-11T11:01:00.000Z

A whole day of entertaining international fixtures today. I may go into meltdown my the end of the day, but for now the going is good so let's set sail. All handicaps 10/11, all total points 9/10.

England 2/9, Argentina 4/1
Handicap: England -11.5
Total Points: Under or over 48.5

Ireland 1/2, SA 2/1
Handicap: Ireland -6.5
Total Points: Under or over 42.5

Wales 2/9, Pacific Islanders 4/1
Handicap: Wales -11.5
Total points: Under or Over 53.5

Italy 9/1, Australia 1/12
Handicap: Australia -20.5
Total points: Under or over 48.5

France 2/1, NZ 1/2
Handicap: NZ-6.5
Total points: Under or over 47.5

Scotland 1/50, Romania 33/1
Handicap: Scotland -30.5
Total points: Under or over 56.5 points

Autumn International rules:
1. I will publish the best prices (match, handicap, total points) available on the weekends matches a few hours before the first game. Selections will be made at these prices only.
2. Over the course of the month you must make a total of 8 selections or more. You are allowed to pick both the handicap and the outright in any one match as well as the points.
3. Everything will be worked out from level stakes, an arbitrary figure of £100 per selection, regardless of the price.
4. Selections should be cleary stated in either the comments section of the relevant post (i.e. this one, don't forget to sign) or on the betfair forum thread that I will start when the prices are ready.
5. Draws are counted as void due to the complications inherent in this unlikely event. All handicaps will be to half points to avoid similar problems. All handicaps are 10/11.

And most of all anyone is welcome, just use the betfair forum or leave selections in the comments box under a blogger username or simply sign your comments so I know who you are.

Guinness Premiership tipping comp - round 7

2006-11-10T12:21:00.000Z

This is the 50th post on Rugbyman's blog! Cue celebrations and all that.

More Premiership action this week despite the glut of internationals dominating the public interest. Same rules as ever:

Bristol evs, Sale evs
No handicap

Newcastle 8/15, Harlequins 15/8
Handicap: Newcastle -5.5

London Irish 11/10, Gloucester 10/11
No handicap

Worcester 10/11, Northampton 11/10
No handicap

Saracens 4/5, Leicester 5/4
No Handicap

Wasps 1/4 v Bath 4/1
Handicap: Wasps -10.5

England v Argentina - so much at stake

2006-11-10T10:52:00.000Z

As an Englishman I do, of course, like to see England win. However, my patriotism is no match for my beliefs and the first thing I believe is that under Andy Robinson England can not possibly win a world cup and will do well to get into the top half of the six-nations. Another thing that I strongly believe is that Argentina are treated poorly by the powers-that-be in rugby; they are the one major rugby nation that has no tournament to play in, yet there are two candidates in this respect. SA, NZ and Aus gave a big middle finger to Argentina when they decided to play each other more often in the now stilted and drawn-out tri-nations rather than inject new blood in the form of the Pumas. It is up to the Northern Hemisphere to allow Argentina into their competition; the six-nations would surely benefit from becoming the seven-nations. Argentina are plenty good enough to compete, in fact it would be no great surprise if they won the competition, they are certainly a better team than Scotland or Italy or Wales most years. Playing home matches from Spain is not ideal for Argentina but they would gladly take the option if it meant regular competition.

So what bearing on this game?
The RFU say that Robinson is safe in his job, but how many more losses can they take? If England were to lose against the Pumas maybe it would be the final straw. Afterall losing to NZ is not that much of a crime, but losing at home to Argentina........well that's just not the done thing! On the other side of the coin if Argentina were to beat England it would certainly aid their claims for inclusion in the six-nations. I would gladly suffer watching England lose one more game if either or both of these things was to be achieved.

The chances of it happening?
Well England haven't lost 6 on the bounce through bad luck! They have been poor, well that's not fair - at times they have been abysmal. There were signs last week that some things were working as they scored 3 (4) backline tries, but then they conceeded twice as many points. Losses to France, Scotland, Ireland, Australia, Australia again, and New Zealand have shown little other than the ability to score fewer points than the opposition. But England are 1/4 favs for this game because it's only the Argies.
Argentina meanwhile have yet to beat England at Twickenham, but have the two sides ever been so well matched? Argentina currently rank 8th in the world (behind Scotland? About Scotland went on tour to south america!) with 77.49 points, while England are 6th with 79.66 points. That's not a big gap and while Argentina maintain their position year after year, England are falling fast.

The teams:

England

15 Iain Balshaw (Gloucester)
14 Paul Sackey (London Wasps)
13 Jamie Noon (Newcastle Falcons)
12 Anthony Allen (Gloucester)
11 Ben Cohen (Northampton Saints)
10 Charlie Hodgson (Sale Sharks)
9 Shaun Perry (Bristol Rugby)
8 Pat Sanderson (Worcester Warriors)
7 Lewis Moody (Leicester Tigers)
6 Martin Corry (Leicester Tigers, captain)
5 Ben Kay (Leicester Tigers)
4 Danny Grewcock (Bath)
3 Julian White (Leicester Tigers)
2 George Chuter (Leicester Tigers)
1 Perry Freshwater (Perpignan)

Replacements: 16 Lee Mears (Bath), 17 Stuart Turner (Sale Sharks), 18 Tom Palmer (London Wasps), 19 Magnus Lund (Sale Sharks), 20 Pete Richards (Gloucester), 21 Toby Flood (Newcastle Falcons), 22 Josh Lewsey (London Wasps).

Argentina

15 Juan Martin Hernández (Stade Français)
14 Jose Nuñez Piossek (Bayonne)
13 Miguel Avramovic (Worcester Warriors)
12 Gonzalo Tiesi (London Irish)
11 Pablo Gomez Cora (Lomas Athletic)
10 Felipe Contepomi (Leinster)
9 Agustín Pichot (Stade Français, captain)
8 Gonzalo Longo (Clermont)
7 Juan Manuel Leguizamon (London Irish)
6 Juan Fernandez Lobbe (Sale Sharks)
5 Patricio Albacete (Toulouse)
4 Ignacio Fernandez Lobbe (Sale Sharks)
3 Omar Hasan (Toulouse)
2 Mario Ledesma (Clermont)
1 Marcos Ayerza (Leicester Tigers)

Replacements: 16 Albert Vernet Basualdo (Associacion Alumni), 17 Martin Scelzo (Clermont), 18 Esteban Lozada (CASI), 19 Martin Schusterman (Leeds), 20 Nicolas Fernandez Miranda (Hindu), 21 Federico Todeschini (Montpellier), 22 Horacio Agulla (Hindu).

England stick with the same line-up as last week, bar Perry Freshwater in for Andy Sheridan. Continuity is a good thing, assuming you have a decent side out of course, and England should benefit from that. Argentina meanwhile have a whole host of players based in England and France: 13 in fact of the XV, 6 from the Premiership, 7 from the top14, with Contepomi the sole Magners league representative.

Strengths and weaknesses
In the last few years as England's backline has lurched from decent to pathetic and back again as many times as most people can't count to, their tight-five has consistently done the job. In many games England would have been in all sorts of trouble if their tight-five was not up to the task, last week NZ edged the tight-five encounter but England were strong enough to stop it becoming too one-sided. Argentina, unfortunately for England, will not be dominated in this area. They have five big players with big names: Hasan and Ledesma have been there, seen it and done it and Ayerza wont let them down. Albacete and Lobbe are not to be trifled with either. They will prevent England getting the advantage up-front that they desperately need.
This means that the game will have to be won elsewhere: England's back-row is less cumbersome than it has been most times in the last few years but despite this improvement there are still two members playing out of their favoured positions and Argentina appear to have the better balance. Both 7s, Moody and Leguizamon, can give away multiple penalties but Leguizamon is faster and has better hands. Longo is stronger than Sanderson and better suited to number 8.
In the backs Perry and Hodgson go up against Pichot and Contepomi. I am a big fan of Shaun Perry, particularly after his excellent debut, but he is outmatched here - Pichot is probably the best scrum-half in the world bar maybe Dwayne Peel. Hodgson has all the ability and directs traffic so well at Sale, but rarely does it for England. Contepomi meanwhile has both the skill and the confidence to dominate Hodgson, he is the second-best international fly-half in the world and I sometimes wonder what he would achieve in a team like NZ.
Elsewhere there is pace a-plenty for Argentina but not so much power or experience. Fortunately they have a very poor England back-three - Sackey has never been good, Cohen has not been good for 3 years, and Balshaw may possibly be good if he can get through a season without injuries. Question marks over Argentina but in England's case we can be sure - they are not good enough.

Conclusion
It's all about reputation here. England can lose multiple games but remain 'one of the big boys'. Argentina can not possibly achieve that status without major competition. Now strange things happen at Twickeham and it's not at all impossible that England will answer the call and start to play well again, but why bet on something that hasn't happened yet? Argentina are a match for England on paper, they are a match for England in results (a six point loss to NZ at home, something England would desperately have wanted), they are more than a match for England in confidence.
A bruising encounter is likely and a tight game is the most probable option. Argentina over-priced again at 4/1 and with a 13 point start.

England 26 - Argentina 22

A look at Italy v Australia

2006-11-09T19:34:00.000Z

This looks to be an intriguing encounter due to the contrast in styles of play and abilities. Italy have a very competitive pack with a front-row that can cause all sorts of problems to bigger teams while Australia have a mobile forward unit with plenty of ability but very little grunt. Conversely Italy have shown themselves barely able to work the ball wide to any degree and rarely score tries through their wingers, a few stunning breaks from Mirco Bergamasco keeping the try-rate above zero for the backline. Australia of course have an experienced, talented, powerful set of backs who are capable of racking up points even when their forwards are getting beaten-up.

But despite their upturn in fortunes in the last year or so Italy have still yet to post many decent wins. They failed to win any of their six-nations encounters earlier in the year and Australia are unlikely to be an easier proposition. On the other hand the Italians beat the handicap on all 5 occasions and made their opponents struggle in each and every game. A draw in the Millennium stadium was the high point and they were just a minute away from a draw at home to Scotland as well. No great success yet but Berbizier's side look as though they are teetering on the brink of an upset.

Australia have had a tough time in the last couple of years. An unprecedented run of losses led to the departure of Eddie Jones from the position of head-coach and John Connolly, a more 'streetwise' coach has taken over. His mission: to add steel to a girly tight-five. As yet this has not been achieved and he has gone about things in a strange way. Although the Aussie scrum is better than last year it has hardly reached the level of 'world-class'. Wales, not a renowned scrummaging team, particularly without Horsman, were able to get the upper-hand in this area and potentially saved the match with one big scrum at the end. Not the total domination of last year but still a victory. This is a major sticking point for Australia as it could be argued that they are a front-row away from being serious world-cup contenders. As it stands they could come unstuck against the superior forward strength of Argentina, England, South Africa, France, New Zealand and Wales. Maybe Ireland as well, though Ireland have the misfortune of having their own achilles heal in the same area.

So why the fuss about scrums? A key area in the game, scrums may be only occasional or they may come thick and fast, but in every case the ball can be won or lost. Possession is nine tenths of the law they say and so it is in rugby, you can not score tries without the ball and the more possession you have the more likely you are to score. Simple see? It is generally accepted that you should win the ball on your put in, but only a strong scrum is likely to achieve this every time. Australia have struggled in this area recently losing possession all too frequently. A strong scrummage is invaluable as an offensive weapon as it ties in the opposition forwards and allows more space to the backs. The route that Italy are more likely to take is the direct one though: get a scrummage inside the opposition 22, preferably 5 yards out and then push the opposing scrum back over their own line. This doesn't often work but the opposing front-row will often be penalised until they end up in the bin or a penalty try is awarded.

So that's the basics, now the particulars:

Australia
1. Al Baxter - This man gets knocked on his arse all to often. If he signed for a Premiership team he would struggle to get a game
2. Brendan Cannon - Tai McIssac came in, did nothing and has been replaced by a similarly poor scrummager
3. Guy Shepherdson - Big Rodney Blake is supposed to be the main hope in the front-row, but is replaced this week by Shepherdson - a steady player but unimpressive scrummager

Italy
1. Andrea LoCicero - despite the girls name this man is a rock and should eat Shepherdson alive
2. Carlo Festuccia - Not first choice but a useful player all the same
3. Martin Castrogiovanni - possibly the toughest scrummager in the Premiership - mighty praise indeed

Back up is important too as front-row replacements almost always play some part. For Australia Stephen Moore and Nic Henderson - neither would come close to the first-team of any other major national side. For Italy Leonardo Ghiraldini and Carlos Nieto - simply don't know anything about Ghiraldini but Nieto is another strong scrummager and an acomplished player plying his trade with Gloucester. It has been suggested that Salvatore Peruggini's ban for head-butting has weakened their front-row resources but it's hard to see exactly how, the two starting props are monsters.

Other concerns
Unfortunately you can not win a game on scrums alone, although England nearly did that against Australia a year ago. Italy will have a sizeable advantage but that is unlikely to be enough. There are other areas that must be taken on board. The line-out is not a problem to Italy, this area likely to be hard-fought and close. The Australian advantage starts to become apparent in the back-row; it's not that the Italian players from 6 to 15 are not good, but it's mainly small technical things and simply having experience at the highest level that Australia excel in.

A look at the rest of the pack:
Australia

4. Mark Chisholm - a talented player but it's fair to say that we have not seen the best of him at international level
5. Nathan Sharpe - big, strong and fiery. A tough competitor and a vital cog in the Aussie wheel
6. Rocky Elsom - a big improver, still has off-days but is now a easy choice at blindside
7. George Smith - the second best number 7 in the world for a while now. Probably
8. Wycliff Palu - I'm not utterly convinced about his all-round game but he certainly has physicality

Italy

4. Santiago Dellape - the lesser of the two Italian second-rows but a very useful player
5. Marco Bortolami - world-class lock forward, 55 caps at 25 years old, would get into the Aussie team easily
6. Alessandro Zanni - the least capped player in an experienced Italian side, talented but young
7. Mauro Bergamasco - very mobile and skilled, maybe not a great 'fetcher'
8. Sergio Parrise - plays at Stade Francais alongside Bergamasco, not the most physical but a talented player

The upshot of all this is that Italy will be able to compete for a lot of the game, their forwards every bit strong enough to keep the Aussies from dominating. The trouble is that Australia can score points at a much faster rate through their backs. This is the area that will really make the difference, if Italy's backline can defend strongly they really are in with a shout, but better teams have been cut apart by these Australian stars.

The Backs

Australia

9. Matt Giteau - Had you only seen him play in last weekends game against Wales you would believe this was the only position he played
10. Matt Rogers - A fly-half? Or a centre? No, he is really a back-three player but is talented enough to play anywhere. Not always that good at 10 though, a debateable ploy to play him here.
11. Lote Tuqiri - A hard man to stop, one of the best wingers around
12. Stephen Larkham - A fly-half? yes. But he plays at inside centre this time. Why? Who knows.
13. Stirling Mortlock - Excellent outside centre - big, tough, skilful. The glue holding this backline together.
14. Clyde Rathbone - An excellent winger, how Italy could do with players like this.
15. Chris Latham - The pick of the bunch, Latham has bailed Australia out so many times.

Italy

9. Paul Griffen - feisty and fiery with a good pass. Silly hair though
10. Ramiro Pez - steady but certainly not flash, has improved somewhat in recent years
11. Paulo Cannavosio - not very big and could be targeted
12. Mirco Bergamasco - one of the best inside centres around and still only 23. Star of Italy's backline
13. Gonzalo Canale - The second reason why Italy's midfield is much greater than it has ever been before
14. Kaine Robertson - doesn't sound very Italian. Nobody will care if he scores, nobody cares anyway
15. Gurt Peens - yep, Italy have pinched a saffer as well, a steady player. Occasionally drops goals from halfway

And the verdict:
Italy are getting better under Berbizier and have caused all sorts of problems for the other teams in the six-nations this year. Australia can cut teams to shreds, but their tight-five is weaker than any in the six-nations. A strong Italy performance and they could get within ten at worst. I genuinely feel that with a bit of fortune and a lot of effort Italy can win this game, but more likely is that they lose by about 12.

Italy 19 - Australia 31

England v New Zealand - The aftermath

2006-11-07T22:23:00.000Z

Having tipped NZ to beat the handicap I was pleased with the end result, but the manner in which it was achieved was somewhat unsettling. The pivotal moment came as early as the 5th minute, Jamie Noon going over for a perfectly good try only for it to be disallowed. Twickenham was stunned by the decision and even the patriotic folk of New Zealand must have been questioning the call. Afterall the All-Blacks should be able to brush a poor England team aside in a fair fight, no need at all for the video ref to help out their defence. But if there is one thing that Graham Henry will be keen to look at and improve in the time before the next big international it must be that defence. England are a poor team, nearly devoid of creativity, but they scored 3 tries against New Zealand. France's offensive qualities are far superior to those of England so a high scoring encounter may be on the cards this coming weekend.

So that decision: After falling behind to a penalty in the second minute of the game England bashed their way into the Kiwi 22, Perry and Cohen making ground on the right-hand side. The ball came left with no particular zip or urgency but Jamie Noon found the gap and scooted over the tryline. No question of stopping short, he was a good 3 foot over the line, but Nonu had stuck his arm under Noon's body and Joel Jutge did not have a clear sight. There was no doubt from his body language and tone that Jutge expected that it was a try, but he reffered it upstairs anyway. First mistake. After a few minutes of waiting, with the England players back on half-way knowing full well that a try had been scored and the All-Blacks making no suggestion that it had been prevented, the video ref says no try! Jutge was noticeably surprised and asked for clarification. After a period of discussion the result was the same: no try. Truly one of the oddest decisions ever made, the argument being that you could not see for sure that Noon had grounded the ball. But Noon's own body prevented the camera seeing the ball from most angles, in itself a good indicator, and one angle cleary showed the ball on the ground. What a waste of time technology turns out to be.

What followed was a predictably dominant NZ performance. Jamie Noon did get a try but only after England had gone 13-0 down, Ben Cohen managed his 31st international try but that only came in the 45th minute after England had gone in at half-time 28-5 down. Shaun Perry scored a breakaway try on his debut, but the game had long since slipped from England's grasp. The upsetting thing for an England fan is again the lack of invention, although maybe a little less of a problem than it has been. Twice England kicked for goal despite being more than two converted tries down; the argument for this tactic has to be that 3 points brings them within two-try range, but what are the chances NZ wont score? And do England not have to score two tries anyway? The worst case of this was when they took a kick at goal on the 22 after Masoe had gone to the bin for not rolling away. With a man advantage for ten minutes it is time to put the pressure on and make your opponents struggle. With possession deep in NZ's half England could have taken a scrum or a line-out, probably the latter, and turned the screw. As it was they took 3 points, which helped very little at all in scoring terms, and allowed NZ to kick-off - meaning England had to build again from their own 22 with the clock ticking. Would it not have been much more sensible (in a game that does not mean anything per se) to have kept the pressure on NZ, tried for 7 points and maybe pressured NZ into another yellow card offence? It may not be considered a "bad" decision in rugby theory to take the three-pointer, but it was pointless and cowardly. It was a decision born of no confidence. A decision that spoke volumes of the England team. The team that won this game was the team that believed in itself.

England ratings:

1. Andrew Sheridan - Gave away a silly penalty after 2 minutes but for the rest of the game was pretty steady. 6
2. George Chuter - A man on form for Leicester and he kept his form for the first half against New Zealand before fading away a little. 6
3. Julian White - Struggled against Woodcock in the scrum and did little else. 5
4. Ben Kay - Another man on form for Leicester, Kay was able to keep up a good level of play throughout. Always battling against the tide but was equal to his opposite number and few England players can say that. 7
5. Danny Grewcock - Typically abrasive and hard-working but didn't do enough. Not a bad performance but conceeding a penalty for pulling a prone man's hair is just blind stupidity. 5
6. Martin Corry - Fought hard and fought well. Up against a very physical unit he put in every bit of effort he could muster. Not able to do too much with the ball though and making some appaling decisions at times. As a player 6. As a captain 4
7. Lewis Moody - Worked hard as usual, but was out-thought by McCaw. Just not an openside however much Robinson wants to believe it. Move Moody back to blindside and he will be much more useful. 6
8. Pat Sanderson - A man who plays every game on the flank for Worcester but is considered a number 8 by Robinson. Sanderson was largely anonymous. He does not have the size or strength to play at the back of the scrum. 4
9. Shaun Perry - Perry was the only player in the England team that can claim he outshone his opposite number. While Kelleher had his usual game of swift service and snipes intermingled with poor kicks and odd decisions, Perry was a hive of industry and a light in the dark for an England side that consistently struggles to show his energy and decisiveness. Great debut. 8
10. Charlie Hodgson - A stinker from Hodgson and no doubt about it. He kicked well from hand under pressure, but apart from that his game was horribly erratic. Crucial missed kicks at goal, 2 from 5, and some rubbish passes that put his team under immense pressure. A strong hand is needed at fly-half and once again Hodgson performed far below his ability 3
11. Ben Cohen - Possibly his best game for England since his comeback, but still less than inspirational. Better than a number of his teammates though, Cohen broke the advantage line on a number of occassions and had a decent all-round game. So rough around the edges after a long time at high-level, booting the ball far to far ahead on a promising England break-out and sometimes failing to communicate with his fellow backs. 6
12. Anthony Allen - Flashes of promise from Allen but in the end he looked like an inexperienced 20 year-old up against world-beaters. The intercepted pass was calamitous from start to finish from England as a whole, but his missed tackle on Carter was his own fault entirely. Better to come. 5
13. Jamie Noon - The third English player to match his opponent. Plenty to improve upon but Noon scored 'two' tries against the world number 1 team and caused problems for NZ. May have been aided by Nonu's odd approach to defensive play. 7
14. Paul Sackey - A better game than I had expected, Sackey was strong in the tackle (most of the time) and made some decent runs with the ball. A long way from anything special and he gave away 7 points by being far too hesitant at a ruck on England's line. Not an international quality winger, but as good a perfomance as we are likely to have seen from any of those available. 6
15. Ian Balshaw - Loved by Woodward in the days when he was occassionaly fit, loved by Robinson in these days of less than occassional fitness. Balshaw had the talent but doesn't appear able to prove it anymore, did little if anything on attack and not much on defence. We need so much more from players such as Balshaw. 4

New Zealand
It's not worth doing ratings for NZ as they were collectively much stronger. Dan Carter ends up man of the match without doing all that much, just ticking things over and guiding great players to a victory. Keith Robinson's return was all that it should have been, although I think I could outrun him with my legs tied together. Masoe and McCaw tread a very fine line though and McCaw was very lucky to escape without a yellow at the end. Had England been in touch in this game it may well have been a case of more All-Blacks sitting out for ten minutes. Something for Henry to ponder as this could be their achilles heal at the world cup.

Autumn International tipping comp after round 1

2006-11-07T18:29:00.000Z

Not exactly popular, which is a shame as I seem to be doing quite well.

1st RugbyMan £180.91
2nd Freshman £90
3rd Boxman £0
3rd Ruck and Roll £0
3rd Stewardsenquiery £0
3rd Furelli £0
3rd Dribbler £0
8th AH -£10

Only 5 bets counting in the end due to the voiding of Wales v Australia due to the draw.

Guinness Premiership Tipping Comp after round 6

2006-11-05T11:24:00.000Z

The table looks like this

1st RugbyNut £706.38
2nd Boxman £689.1
3rd MWAP £553.04
4th Big Dunc £491.99
5th Furelli £490.38
6th RugbyMan £440.91
7th Uncle Jam £163.64
8th The Man £42.72
9th Db2 £25
10th Ace Rothstein -£13.43
11th Ruck and Roll -£86.09
12th AH -£108.18
13th Oo R Ya -£142.43
14th Vickersa -150.58

Weekly profit of just £95, bringing the overall profit to £3042.50.

Autumn International Tipping Comp - Week 1

2006-11-04T13:02:00.000Z

We have a Guinness Premiership and Heineken cup competition going, Six-nations almost a certainty. May as well have a Autumn International tipping comp as well. All adds to the overall tipping league currently led by Big Dunc (rules on this below).

Autumn International rules:

1. I will publish the best prices (match, handicap, total points) available on the weekends matches a few hours before the first game. Selections will be made at these prices only.

2. Over the course of the season you must make a total of 8 selections or more. You are allowed to pick both the handicap and the outright in any one match.

3. Everything will be worked out from level stakes, an arbitrary figure of £100 per selection, regardless of the price.

4. Selections should be cleary stated in either the comments section of the relevant post (i.e. this one, don't forget to sign) or on the betfair forum thread that I will start when the prices are ready.

5. Draws are counted as void due to the complications inherent in this unlikely event. All handicaps will be to half points to avoid similar problems. All handicaps are 10/11.

Prices are ready for the first two games:

Wales evs, Australia evs
No Handicap
Total points: Under 47.5, over 47.5. Both 9/10

England 6/1, New Zealand 1/6
Handicap: England -14.5
Total points: Under 46.5, over 46.5. Both 9/10

Overall tipping league rules:
1. To qualify for this league you have to complete the requisite number of tips for 2 seperate leagues (i.e. 30 in the Premiership and 10 in the Autumn internationals)
2. Having fulfilled the qualifying requirements all tips will be taken into account (including those on competitions where you have failed to make up the requisite amount)
3. At the end of the season all profits will be added together for an overall score
4. There is no seperate Overall tipping league odds - it is simply a sum of all the others

Guinness Premiership Tipping Comp - round 6

2006-11-03T13:36:00.000Z

Two internationals hogging the spotlight this week but the show must go on.

Sale 4/6, Wasps 6/4
Handicap: Sale -4.5

Newcastle 10/11, Bristol 11/10
No handicap available.

Bath 8/11, London Irish 11/8
Handicap: Bath -2.5

Harlequins 11/10, Northampton 10/11
No Handicap

Leicester 2/9, Worcester 9/2
Handicap: Leicester -11.5

Gloucester 4/7, Saracens 7/4
Handicap: Gloucester -4.5

Rules as before, you all know the drill. Newcomers welcome - selections in the comments section or on the relevant Betfair forum thread.

Wales v Australia

2006-11-02T13:33:00.000Z

G'Day mates, it's time to look at the latest installment in this fascinating clash. Wales have the upper-hand from their shock 24-22 victory last year, but Australia are playing a little better now. Wales have countered the upturn in Aussie form by announcing a very strong team and jettisoning some dead-weight. The Welsh line-up is much more akin to the Grand-slam winning team of 18 months ago while the Australians are tinkering positionally.

Wales
15 - Kevin Morgan
14 - Gareth Thomas
13 - Tom Shanklin
12 - Gavin Henson
11 - Shane Williams
10 - Steven Jones (C)
9 - Dwayne Peel

1 - Gethin Jenkins
2 - Matthew Rees
3 - Adam Jones
4 - Ian Evans
5 - Ian Gough

6 - Jonathan Thomas

7 - Martyn Williams

8 - Ryan Jones

Replacements: 16 - Rhys Thomas 17 - Duncan Jones 18 - Chris Horssman 19 - Alun Wyn Jones 20 - Mike Phillips 21 - James Hook 22 - Mark Jones

Australia
15 - C Latham
14 - C Rathbone
13 - L Tuqiri
12 - S Larkham
11 - C Shepherd
10 - M Rogers
9 - M Giteau

1 - A Baxter
2 - T McIsaac
3 - R Blake
4 - N Sharpe
5 - D Vickerman
6 - R Elsom
7 - P Waugh (C)
8 - W Palu

Replacements: B Cannon, B Robinson, M Chisholm, S Hoiles, J Valentine, M Gerrard, A Ashley-Cooper

Where does the strength the lie?
Not in the tight-fives that's for sure. Australia were so pathetic in this area last year that even Wales could rip them apart at scrum-time and the Welsh are not renowned for such things. Without Horssman the Welsh scrum will be somewhat depowered while the addition of big Rodney Blake levels the playing field somewhat. Under John Connolly it is unlikely that Australia will be pushovers up-front, but as yet we haven't seen anything to sugget Australia are up to the required standard.

The back-rows then? Probably, but not neccesarily. Wales have their best back-row starting this game, but whether Jones and Thomas are in full-flow at the moment is questionable. Too many injuries, but at the top of their games this trio will be a mighty handful for Australia. The Aussies have Elsom, Palu and Waugh. While Waugh is quite consistently good the other two have been a little hit or miss. Elsom and Palu played some excellent games in the Super14 and followed that up with some excellent games in the tri-nations. But not every game, sometimes the concentration slips a little. A facinating and very important clash with the more physical Aussies up against some very mobile and skillful Welshmen. In an open game the Welsh could prove too quick for their bigger counterparts.

Half-backs: 1-0 Wales in this department. Australia have plenty of world-class players knocking around at fly-half but not at scrum-half. Gregan stays in Australia this time, presumably because he wants to pick up his pension on mondays, Whittaker is out of the reckoning and Cordingley is injured. This leaves Matt Giteau - inside centre and debateable fly-half - to plug the gap. He is certainly a talented enough player to do well out of position but he is up against the best scrum-half in the world. Dwayne Peel has been masterful for Wales over the past few years - his passing is near perfect and he spots gaps that nobody else would. There is a fair chance that Giteau will get taught a lesson on Saturday. Matt Rogers meanwhile is an extraordinarily talented rugby player and should do fine at fly-half, but he is up against a man who knows every facet of fly-half play and is in the best form of his life for Wales.

Best match-ups

Shanklin v Tuqiri
Two big men in the midfield; not an unusual sight in rugby of course but these two are very strong. Tuqiri has more pace but Shanklin knows his position inside out while Tuqiri is a winger and has always been a winger. Very interesting.

Peel v Giteau
As noted above Dwayne Peel is a superb scrum-half. Matt Giteau is not a scrum-half. If Giteau comes out of this game on level terms he should stop pretending to be a fly-half and tattoo 9 on his back.

Jenkins v Blake
Who is more important to the Aussie cause? Nobody. With some seriously rubbish scrummagers in the Australian ranks including a player that would struggle to get a game in the Premiership - Al Baxter - Rodney Blake's big fat arse is going to be relied on not to go backwards. Jenkins in all honesty is not the world's best scrummager either but is an excellent rugby player and a very fit man for a prop. Big clash at scrum-time, big clash in the loose.

Henson v Larkham
Now here's one you don't want to predict. Neither player likes being tackled and both appear to consider themselves fly-halves. Henson has played at inside centre much more often than Larkham, but Larham has more international experience by far. The question is maybe how well will Henson play? He has the ability, but not the mental fortitude, which means he plays well in patches rather than consistently. Maybe the deciding factor will be the fact that Henson can boot the ball a mile. Maybe that Larkham is quicker.

So who will win it?
It could go either way, the signs are encouraging for Wales but they have to step up from recent performances. Australia are fiddling about and I would never back a team who's focus does not appear to be entirely on winning. Wales at evens or thereabouts are certainly the bet for me as I would expect to win at least 3 of 5 times. Something cheesy now: I hope rugby will be the winner. This game can hardly fail to entertain and it's always nice to see the Aussies fail in a sporting occassion. Especially if you are English (living vicariously through the Welsh, how standards have slipped).

Rugbyman says:
Wales 25- Australia 20

England v NZ - part2

2006-11-01T15:21:00.000Z

Graham Henry names a weakened side...................and it still looks superb.

15 Muliaina
14 Gear
13 Nonu
12 Mauger
11 Rokocoko
10 Evans
9 Kelleher

1 Woodcock
2 Mealamu
3 Hayman
4 Jack
5 Robinson
6 Thorne
7 McCaw (capt)
8 Masoe

In the backline MacDonald misses out again despite being one of the most solid and dependable players I have ever seen. He has had fitness troubles though so Muliaina starts at full-back. Not so good a kicker or reader of the game but one of the best runners in world rugby. Mils at 15 means the centre position is up for grabs and is taken by Ma'a Nonu ahead of his Wellington team-mate Conrad Smith. A case of brawn over brains as the self-labelled 'weakest man in rugby' gives way to a wrecking-ball type of player. Nonu has been on top form for Wellington and should give Jamie Noon all manner of problems. only trouble is that his concentration wavers at times on defence. Rokocoko takes the left-wing spot ahead of on-form Sitiveni Sivivatu in a battle between two of the best names in rugby. Sivivatu was excellent in the NPC but the chances are that he will play some games this tour. Certainly the biggest surprise is Nick Evans at fly-half. Not because he is a poor player, he would walk into any northern hemisphere side for sure, but simply that Dan Carter makes way. Fair enough though, with two tough games against the French coming up why not test out Evans against an English team with a tough defence, but a generally hopeless attack.

In the forwards Collins and So'oialo make way for Masoe and Thorne. Thorne is in partly for line-out options, partly for experience. Masoe is a bundle of muscle and energy and is every bit as good as big Rodney, but in a different way. Oh, and there is that bloke McCaw who isn't bad. Biggest news for the whole team is probably the inclusion of Keith Robinson. While Chris Jack seems to be able to go game after game without picking up an injury, Robinson has had less fortune. A lengthy lay-off but a sparkling return; Robinson is the missing link in NZ's forwards evolution under Graham Henry, the enforcer to balance Jack's skills in the loose. With Robinson in the team NZ's scrum, line-out and rucking will probably improve. His ball skills could be better but that's not what he is there for. In the front-row there are no changes, this is Henry's favourite combo. Mealamu's throwing-in has been inconsistent but so have his competition for the hooking position. Hayman is the best tight-head in the world right now and Woodcock's selection has been made easy by an injury to Tialata.

Overall we have a few combinations that have not had much time together and a team, as a whole, who may be a little rusty. There is no doubt that this NZ team is much better than their English counterparts though; the back-three in particular are in a totally different league. If NZ click early they could run up a big score. The good thing for England is that NZ hardly ever start well. This fixture last year was kept close largely because of a poor NZ start and on numerous occasions since the All-Blacks have gone behind early on. How much England need that again! And fortunately this time is as likely as any. It will then be a case of how many points will NZ score and how quickly.

Key match-ups:

Henry v Robinson
Master tactician against buffoon. Henry has turned a talented but inconsistent side into easily the best team in the world. A slip up in SA last time out simply didn't matter. Robinson took control of the world champions (yes New Zealanders, it's still true) and turned them into consistent losers. Fourth twice in a row in the six-nations and a run of five defeats, players out of position for no apparent reason, abysmal wingers starting game after game. Oh dear.

Nonu v Noon
Not so one-sided maybe. Noon is not a bad player and will be better served playing outside someone who can pass the ball. Defensively he is strong and he runs good lines in attack. On the other hand there is Nonu who can be anything on his day but appears to be more likely to play well than not this season. Nonu charges, it's quite predictable, and it's very hard to stop him. With Mauger pulling strings inside Nonu could be the game-winner. Let's just hope he goes to sleep in defence as sometimes happens.

Sheridan v Hayman
Hardly glamorous but these two are very big men. Hayman has the upper-hand; he has played much longer in his position and knows his stuff, but for raw power Sheridan is ahead. Well worth watching in the hope that at some point they career into each other like two planets on a collision course. Even more intereting if one off them bolts home 20 yards for a try, but I think two planets colliding is more likely.

Robinson v Grewcock
Like the two props above, but twelve times more aggression. Punches will surely be thrown, although there is a possibility of stamping, biting or hair pulling instead. Robinson's return could be massive to NZ as they have struggled at times against aggressive packs. Last year's fixture is a perfect example of this: NZ a mile-clear as far as back play, but unable to cope with England's brutal forward play. Robinson will answer Grewcock's barely-controlled violence in kind; hitting rucks hard, flying into tackles, and maybe even improving that shaky line-out!

Perry v Kelleher
Now here's an interesting match-up. Kelleher has been in or around the All-Black set-up for many years now; 44 caps and it could have been more but for injuries. Shaun Perry makes his debut at the age of 28 having spent most of his career in the lower leagues. A win for NZ then, but Perry's form in the Premiership mark him out as someone to be wary of and his style of play is not a long way off Kelleher's. Both have the ability to make breaks and both cause problems with their high work-rate and determination. Also both players have a tendency to botch things up just when they seem to have done everything right and both players try too hard to make things happen at times.

Gear v Cohen
Ha ha!
(insert degrading comments about the useless big lummox here)

Who will win then?
It was supposed to be a rout last year but the England pack caused all sorts of problems for NZ. Despite this when NZ went ahead it looked as though they would stretch clear, but England kept it tight somehow, mostly through ill-discipline under pressure from NZ. At no point did it really look as though England would win it though and this year the England team is probably worse than last year, certainly out wide at least. What it comes down to is that this is the first game of the Autumn for both teams and getting into stride early is going to be very important. England are maybe more likely to achieve this as rumbling up the middle and being heavy take less co-ordination than playing 'total rugby'. NZ are capable of running up a big score here but will have to learn their lesson from last year; northern hemisphere rugby makes much more use of the yellow card than the southern hemisphere. This game is in Twickenham with a French ref so tread carefully! XV against XV this can only go one way.

RugbyMan says:
England 16 - 34 New Zealand

England v NZ - part 1

2006-10-30T23:03:00.000Z

Andy Robinson today announced his England line-up for the opening match of his Autumn campaign. Last Autumn was something of a highpoint in his career as England coach as his team failed to be embarrased by the southern hemisphere nations. Of course the promise shown in these results quickly fell to dust when the might of Scotland and Ireland were encountered in the six-nations, but Robinson must have felt he was on to something when his under-pressure team lost by only 4 points to New Zealand. At home of course, England rarely come anywhere near winning a game in NZ or Australia unless a world cup final victory is just around the corner. Robinson could nearly smell that sweet scent of agonising, but surprisingly close, defeat when he named his squad. Nine players remain from this same fixture last year.

15. Ian Balshaw
14. Mark Cueto
13. Jamie Noon
12. Anthony Allen
11. Ben Cohen
10. Charlie Hodgson
9. Shaun Perry

1. Andrew Sheridan
2. George Chuter
3. Julian White
4. Ben Kay
5. Danny Grewcock
6. Martin Corry
7. Lewis Moody
8. Pat Sanderson

New caps Shaun Perry and Anthony Allen have been two of the form players in England this year. Allen is just 20 while Perry only came into the Premiership last season with Bristol, having previously been with Coventry. Both are sensible additions to the team - a baptism of fire no doubt, going in against the best team in the world, but both on form and playing with plenty of confidence.

Ben Kay takes over from the injured Steve Borthwick in the second-row and joins two Leicester compatriots in the tight-five. George Chuter and Julian White have been two-parts of the very impressive Tigers front-row in recent weeks; unfortunately the most important man of that trio - Martin Castrogiovanni - is not an Englishman. Never mind though, Andy Sheridan is as big a lump as you are likely to see in world rugby and these five men are to be crucial to England's chances.

The problem is that England do not have a history of making good use of little possession. History says that England need a lot of possession, and often get it, to be able to win games, which they sometimes fail to do even with a massive advantage of possession. Overpower your opposition and drive them into making mistakes and giving away penalties. If done properly it will win games against lesser nations but New Zealand are not so easily swatted aside. Their pack has a formidable look to it these days, 8 men of bulk and power who can play a bit as well. England need to be able to make the most of their possession now. Can they do it?

Perry and Hodgson could be a good half-back combination. Hodgson is beginning to shine more often than not and is a major claimant to the title of 'The northern hemisphere's premier 10'. He just needs to show at international level the game-winning abilities he shows for Sale. Alongside him is Anthony Allen at inside centre who has made a name for himself early in his career with numerous solid performances for Gloucester. Four tries in eight games this season and last weekend he was a bright light in a Gloucester team that struggled to ignite. There is certainly more promise here of creativity than there has been in recent years. Jamie Noon stands at outside centre and his brand of direct-running rugby is a good balance to the silkier skills on his inside. Noon and Allen will have to perform defensively but it will be in attack that they will be judged against former midfield partnerships. It will be hard for them to fail compared to some recent England performances here.

Now the back-three. The speed merchants, the players who round of moves with searing pace, a jink and a swish of the hips, dotting down for five points and rewarding their forwards for all their hard work with style and panache...............
Alas not. In recent times the England back-three have been consistently starved of ball. The guileless and at times incompetent centres unable to get the ball to their wingers in any space at all. Of course it doesn't help that they have to barge their own props or locks out of the way to do so as the fatboys of the tight-five suffer from personality disorders that lead them to believe that they are capable to being backs. But that's another story entirely. Mark Cueto makes good use of the little ball he gets, more often than not. Ian Balshaw has played so little rugby that we really don't know if he is capable anymore or not. The loss of Josh Lewsey here is huge as he is both a quality player and a man that would run through fire for the team's cause.

And then there is Ben Cohen. After a few years away from the England team Ben Cohen returned last Autumn and even scored a try in one game. An impressive feet of ingenuity that he celebrated by screaming an obscenity towards the crowd. No fine though, he must have just been excited, or maybe believed himself to be a football player. He had missed a lot of rugby as a loss of enthusiasm occured after the highs of the world cup. Never mind though - he was back now and ready to fire on all cylinders. Well frankly that has not happened and does not ever look like doing so. His performances for Northampton have ranged from good to poor and very rarely hit the level of 'world-class'. His ability to hold onto an England shirt are exceptional, but his ability to play well while wearing one seems non-existent. Far and away England's most incompetent player of the six-nations in a team that was suffering a lot of stick in all areas. Cohen stood out though for his sheer inability to do anything right. He struggles to catch a ball, is not particularly fast, kicks poorly and often pointlessly, and makes defensive blunders. For all the problems that Tom Varndell had at the end of last season at least he is good in patches - Cohen has not proved himself able to play at all for many years now. His six-nations record: 5 games, no trys, one game-losing blunder against Scotland, two extraordinary shows of incompetence against Wales and then Ireland. But apparently he is the best we have!

Last of all is the back-row. A master piece of tactical nous. Play a openside at number 8, a blindside at openside, and a number 8 at blindside. Yep that will keep them guessing; not the opposition though, it's the players themselves who wont know what's going on. Lewis Moody after a long career at blindside for Leicester has been constantly used at openside by the ever-resourceful Robinson. The fact that he is well suited to the blindside roll not enough to sway master-tactician Robbo. Magnus Lund misses out on selection again for reasons unknown to us simple folk. Up against McCaw we put a player not particularly experienced in the 'fetching' roll, not as quick, with a temper and an ability to give away countless penalties. Lund on the other hand is the closest thing we, or maybe anyone else, have to McCaw himself. Well I'm sure there's a masterplan but it is difficult to see. Just how many times does something need to fail before Robinson decides it is not a good plan?

That concludes our look in to the bizarre world of England team selecting where players who have not played a decent game of rugby all season are chosen ahead of players on top form. Tomorrow we will look at a well-drilled and enthusiastic bunch of highly talented players who are teaching the world to play rugby their way. No blaggers in this team and no positional merry-go-round. Tomorrow we look at the mighty New Zealanders who have kindly agreed to come here (for a huge sum of cash) to show us the way to rugby nirvana. And we look at the workings of a coach named Graham Henry, a man who for some reason had to win things and prove his competence as a head coach before landing the job of managing the fortunes of his home nation. What an odd way to go about things, they really are crazy down under............................
kia ora everyone!

Only 314 days to go

2006-10-29T22:37:00.000Z

That's right, it really isn't that long until rugby world cup 2007 is upon us. The first game, in the St Denis, between France and Argentina is on the 7th of September next year. The final will be played in the same stadium on the 20th of October. Oh Happy days. In total there will be 48 matches, some of which will be pointless, some will be extremely one-sided, some will be fantastic. The opener between the hosts and the constantly underrated Argentines should set a good tone.

First of all the groups:

POOL A
England
South Africa
Samoa
USA
Repechage 2 (winner of a mini-league of teams that have failed to qualify directly. Uruguay for instance)

POOL B
Australia
Wales
Fiji
Canada
Asia 1 (probably Japan)

POOL C
New Zealand
Scotland
Italy
Romania
Repechage 1 (winner of a mini-league of teams that have failed to qualify directly. Uruguay for instance)

POOL D
France
Ireland
Argentina
Europe 3 (Georgia or Portugal)
Africa 1 (Probably Namibia, maybe Morocco)

Pool D has to be the toughest with any one of three teams able to top the group. New Zealand have got lucky again though, Italy and Scotland may be improving but they are hardly going to win the tournament. England, South Africa and Samoa are thrown together again in what has to be described as a curious twist of fate; the unions involved will probably deem it "Bloody annoying, but at least we don't play New Zealand".

Games to look forward to:

07/09/2007 - France v Argentina

09/09/2007 - Paris - South Africa v Samoa

14/09/2007 - St Denis - England v South Africa

15/09/2007 - Cardiff - Wales v Australia

21/09/2007 - St Denis - France v Ireland

22/09/2007 - Nantes - England v Samoa

23/09/2007 - Edinburgh - Scotland v New Zealand

30/09/2007 - Paris - Ireland v Argentina

Rubbish Stats:

Gavin Hastings has scored a record 227 points in rugby world cups.
New Zealand have the record for average tries scored during a competition: 7.4 per game in 2003
2003 had the highest average points per game: 58.9
Jonah Lomu has 15 rugby world cup tries. Rory Underwood has the second highest tally of 11.
Johnny Wilkinson has kicked 8 drop-goals at rugby world cups. Second is Jannie de Beer with 6.
Fabio Ongaro is the only player to have recieved two world cup yellow cards.
12 players have been red-carded in rugby world cups. None of these were in 2003!
New Zealand have a total of 1384 points in world cups. 397 more than any other team.
New Zealand have 184 world cup tries. 62 more than any other team.
England have kicked the most world cup penalties: 98
England have kicked the most world cup drop-goals: 12
France have recieved 5 yellow cards, one clear of Tonga.
Canada have recieved 3 red-cards, one more than South Africa and Tonga

Heineken cup tipping comp after round 2

2006-10-29T18:52:00.000Z

Whoopee! I am moving in the right direction. Another winner and I will be back to £0 again.
Congratulations Big Dunc on going clear at this stage. Well clear. Also top of the overall tipping league at this stage, combined with the Guinness Premiership competition. There will be a Autumn internationals tipping comp starting next saturday.

1st: Big Dunc £429.87
2nd: Kerrybhoy £181.82
3rd: Boxman £163.64
4th: The Freshman £81.82

5th: Waz £72.73

6th: Ruck and Roll £63.64

7th: Uncle Jam £31.80
8th: AH -£54.54

9th: Vickersa -£68.18

10th: Rugbyman -£88.43

11th: MWAP £-100
12th: Tomi -£106.20
13th: Furelli £-209.88

Overall profit of £348.09 from 101 bets. Not brilliant but we are certainly moving in the right direction.

Heineken cup tipping comp round 2

2006-10-27T18:04:00.000+01:00

Llanelli 8/13, Ulster 6/4
Handicap: Llanelli -3.5

Castres 1/14, Treviso 10/1
Handicap: Castres -19.5

Sale 1/66, Calvisano 30/1
Handicap: Sale -31.5

Biarritz 1/66, Parma 30/1
Handicap: Biarritz -31.5

Stade Francais 1/6, Ospreys 6/1
Handicap: Stade -14.5

Gloucester 1/8, Agen 8/1
Handicap: Gloucester -17.5

Northampton 1/6, Borders 6/1
Handicap: Northampton -14.5

Perpignan 4/7, Wasps 7/4
Handicap: Perpignan -5.5

Munster 1/25, Bourgoin 12/1
Handicap: Munster -24.5

Edinburgh 7/4, Leinster 4/7
Handicap: Leinster -4.5

Cardiff 10/11, Leicester evens
No Handicap.

Toulouse 1/10, London Irish 15/2
Handicap: Toulouse -18.5

Rules as below. Newcomers welcome.

Weekend results round-up 22/10/06

2006-10-24T23:11:00.000+01:00

Heineken Cup

Pool 1
Wasps 19-13 Castres
Treviso 10-25 Perpignan

Pool 2
Leinster 37-20 Gloucester
Agen 19-17 Edinburgh

Pool 3
Calvisano 10-45 Stade Francais
Ospreys 17-16 Sale

Pool 4
Leicester 19-21 Munster
Bourgoin 5-13 Cardiff Blues

Pool 5
Ulster 30-3 Toulouse
London Irish 25-32 Llanelli

Pool 6
Biarritz 22-10 Northampton
Borders 35-3 Parma

Air New Zealand cup
Waikato 37-31 Wellington

Waikato lift the trophy in fine style. Well done Warren Gatland. Definitely one of the finest coaches in world rugby. Watch and learn Andy Robinson.

Heineken cup tipping comp after round 1

2006-10-23T22:47:00.000+01:00

A very poor start from myself and nobody has managed a particularly strong start. Boxman and Big Dunc making strides towards the overall tipping title though.

1st: Big Dunc £181.82
2nd: Vickersa £140.91
3rd: Waz £90.91
4th: Boxman £81.82
5th: AH £63.64
6th: Tomi £-80
7th: Uncle Jam £-83.34
8th: MWAP £-100
9th: Ruck and Roll £-118.18
10th: Furelli £-202.79
11th: Rugbyman £-209.09

An overall loss of £234.30 means we are doing much worse as a group than in the Premiership. If not for Munster's performance we really would have been struggling.

Heineken Cup Tipping Comp - Round 1

2006-10-20T14:07:00.000+01:00

With the glorious success (?) of the Premiership tipping comp a Heineken cup version was always sure to follow. A shorter course but a greater variety of styles and abilities should make this a more difficult competition to win.

The rules are simple:

1. I will publish the best prices (match and handicap) available on the weekends matches a few hours before the first game. Selections will be made at these prices only.

2. Over the course of the season you must make a total of 15 selections or more. You are allowed to pick both the handicap and the outright in any one match.

3. Everything will be worked out from level stakes, an arbitrary figure of £100 per selection, regardless of the price, with one exception: If backing two teams at odds of 2/1 or more you can chose to split your stake in half, £50 on each. This must be clearly stated.

4. Selections should be cleary stated in either the comments section of the relevant post (i.e. this one, don't forget to sign) or on the betfair forum thread that I will start when the prices are ready.

5. Draws are counted as void due to the complications inherent in this unlikely event. All handicaps will be to half points to avoid similar problems. All handicaps are 10/11.

6. I will publish a league table at the end of each weekend. There are no prizes although I will buy you a pint next summer if you beat me and I don't have to travel far to do so. This may not count if in London because I'll be damned if I am paying £3 for a pint, what with travel costs and all that, in my day...........................

Round 1 Prices

Agen 1/3, Edinburgh 3/1
Handicap: Agen -9.5

Ospreys 11/8, Sale 8/11
Handicap: Sale -3.5

London Irish 8/13, Llanelli 13/8
Handicap: London Irish -4.5

Borders 1/6, Overmach Parma 11/2
Handicap: Borders -14.5

Calvisano 20/1, Stade Francais 1/25
Handicap: Stade Francais -24.5

Bourgoin 2/7, Cardiff 7/2
Handicap: Bourgoin -9.5

Treviso 3/1, Perpignan 3/10
Handicap: Perpignan -9.5

Leinster 4/7, Gloucester 7/4
Handicap: Leinster -5.5

Ulster 5/4, Toulouse 4/5
Handicap: Toulouse -2.5

Biarritz 1/16, Northampton 12/1
Handicap: Biarritz-19.5

Wasps 1/10, Castres 10/1
Handicap: Wasps -18.5

Leicester 1/2, Munster 2/1
Handicap: Leicester -5.5

Heineken Cup - Group 5

2006-10-19T16:47:00.000+01:00

Llanelli 8/1
London Irish 12/1
Ulster 5/1
Toulouse 1/2

Llanelli
It seems a certainty then that the Welsh teams will struggle. Llanelli have probably the best draw of the three but progression still looks very tough. Toulouse are obvious favourites but London Irish and Ulster are certainly fallible. Unfortunately a minimum of 4 wins is needed to qualify for the next round and 5 will probably be needed. That's a massive task for a team that looks to be the weakest on paper. Llanelli have a good history though: Semi-finals in 2000, semi-finals in 2002, and two losses at home in the quarter-finals in 2003 and 2004. Unfortunately the Welsh teams seem to have been overtaken in the last couple of years and now look as though they are constantly struggling to keep up. Llanelli can not be discounted from this group but are hardly a strong betting proposition to qualify against decent outfits.
Regan King is one of the smoothest running centres around at the moment and he provides a large dose of creativity to the Scarlet backline. Dwayne Peel and Stephen Jones provide the control at half-back and these three guarantee Llanelli will be able to capitalise on errors. The larger question is can the Scarlets pack keep up? Probably not. As with all Welsh packs these days they have plenty of mobility but not enough firepower. Deacon Manu and Craig Dunlea will help them get some control in the front-row while captain Simon Easterby never lets up. Just not enough like them though.

Prediction 4th. Two wins in each of the last two seasons and two wins may be about right for this year.

London Irish
You can never be sure exactly what you will get with the exiles. Last year they stormed into the Premiership play-offs with an exceptional away record and dazzled with their attacking capabilities. This year they are going nowhere fast but in patches have shown that they are capable of cutting teams apart. A bit of consistency will be needed to get any further though. Only one venture into the Heineken cup previously which is nothing to go on but they did make the final of the challenge cup last year. The bad news for Irish is that their away record may not help them against 3 teams with impressive records at home so they have to rely on their dodgy home form.
There are exiles here from all over the rugby world and many have big reputations. While the Heineken cup is likely to bring out the best in this team it is still unlikely a team with such changeable fortunes will put together a run of victories. Olivier Magne, Seilala Mapasua, Mike Catt, Riki Flutey, Sailosi Tagicakibau, Juan-Manuel Leguizamon and Faan Rautenbach are amongst the big names on show. One of Irish's most potent weapons is their line-out which is consistently the best in the Premiership. With a strong set-piece and bags of pace and invention Irish are always a big threat but they lack the control to put in a major challenge.

Prediction 3rd. But the nature of this beast is that away games hold no fear and when on song they really are a force.

Ulster
Nobody likes going to Ravenhill except Ulster fans. Many big teams came, saw, and left with bugger-all. Perennial Celtic league masters Ulster have not quite transferred their form to the big stage. Very consistent with 3 wins in each of the last 3 groups and 4 wins twice before that, but their only success has been holding the trophy aloft in 1999. That's more than most of course but they have yet to follow it up. Never to be written off but never quite strong enough to get far. They have a genuine chance of making it out of this group. 3 home wins is far from impossible although an away win will be tougher. You can't knock Ulster's form though: top of the Celtic league after winning it last year. Just need that one big push for a quarter-final spot.
Not enough big name players in the squad it seems. A solid team for Celtic league success but not enough stars to win tough games in Europe. Justin Harrison is a useful addition to the second-row but is the only outstanding player in an otherwise solid pack. David Humphries is always key in marshalling the backs and solid centres such as Kevin Maggs, Paul Steinmetz and Paddy Wallace help his cause. Andrew Trimble has to go down as the danger man in the Ulster back-line.

Prediction 2nd. Uncompromising and solid but not quite strong enough. A couple of big names short of a real challenge

Toulouse
Ahh! Toulouse, the tournament just wouldn't be the same without them. They bring Gallic flair along with their sometimes brutal pack. They can run you over and score a hat-full of tries or they can play right into your hands and gift you the game. Packed with Internationals and overflowing with history and support Toulouse are the team that neutrals want to see and tv companies want to show. This doens't always lead to success though.
Last year was of course a disaster for Toulouse: coming through their group as usual to a home QF they must have been working out the specifics of their upcoming semi-final until Leinster spoiled the party in a memorable game. Just not good enough for a team that won the competition in 2003, were runners-up in 2004 and won again in 2005. Not good enough for the fans of this well-supported club and not good enough for the players who are used to success at club level and beyond.
Daan Human, Jean-Baptiste Poux, Omar Hasan and Yannick Bru make up the front-row. Trevor Brennan struggles for a place in the second-row faced with team-mates such as Fabien Pelous and Romain Millo-Schlusky. Jean Bouilhou, Yannick Nyanga and Finau Maka for a back-row anyone? Ellisalde and Michalak are generally in partnership at half-back although injuries are likely to disrupt them this year. Outside there is serious quality. Jauzion and Fritz have to be the strongest centre partnership at club level if not the world while Clerc, Heymans and Poitrenaud sit on their shoulders. Oh and there is also Xavier Garbajosa, Gregory Lamboley, Gareth Thomas and Benoit Baby as well as a few others.

Prediction. 1st. Has to be first in their group with a good chance of a home QF. The only team likely to beat them is themselves (and that does happen).

And Later?
Toulose with a home quarter-final are likely to be made favourites for the tournament and with an away tie will still have every chance of another final. Any other team getting out of this group is more than likely to get an away tie against a big club.

Heineken Cup - Group 4

2006-10-19T16:34:00.000+01:00

Bourgoin 14/1
Cardiff 9/1
Leicester 6/4
Munster 5/4

Cardiff
Another evil group here and Cardiff are the second Welsh team to suffer from the seeding lottery. How many wins they get out of this group could rely mostly on how much effort Bourgoin put into the competition this year. In recent years the French team has given up before it's started but unfortunately for Cardiff they are growing their squad and may have the resources to turn up this year. Winning an away game is a very tough task for Cardiff and winning at home is not going to be much easier. I take my hat of to Cardiff if they get out of this group. Certainly wont be betting on it though. 6 wins in their last 24 Heineken cup games does nothing to suggest Cardiff will progress this year despite impressing at times this season.
Players: Xavier Rush is very important to Cardiff as captain and pack leader. Ben Blair's kicking and counter-attacking is of similar importance. Tom Shanklin and Marc Schterbina's centre partnership is crucial and Nicky Robinson's performances at fly-half can swing games one way or the other. Cardiff just don't have the grunt up-front to go far in this competition.

Prediction: 4th. A team without a strong pack is certainly going to struggle in this heavyweight group. Cardiff could nab 3rd if Bourgoin mess around but qualification will be Cardiff's biggest ever achievement. Next year maybe.

Bourgoin
Who knows? Will Bougoin put out second-string teams as they have in the past or have they grown into a team that can put up a fight on two fronts? Their recent Top14 form has been good, they don't qualify by accident. They were good enough to beat Leinster at home last year but have been beaten 3 times in the past 2 years by the same team including a 92-17 hammering. Bourgoin are enigmatic and can hardly be trusted but if they put out a strong team they can do some damage at home. Not quite so likely to win away though and they are probably going to be battling with Cardiff for 3rd position rather than thinking about qualification.
Players: Julien Bonnaire is captain and a very solid back-rower. Bryce Williams is a big second-rower from NZ with a big impact on Bourgoin's fortunes. Benjamin Boyet runs the backline, but which of these players will play is always debateable.

Prediction 3rd. They have enough to beat Cardiff but can hardly be trusted to go any further.

Munster
It would be harsh to suggest last year's champions would not top their group, but while Biarritz celebrate getting drawn against teams they could beat blindfolded Munster have a much tougher group to contend with. Their history against Leicester will provide plenty of niggle and their similarities in style should lead to tight matches. Munster are probably Europe's most consistent performers, often denied in the latter stages but finally coming good last season. Maybe a Heineken cup hangover is in store, expectations will be higher than usual after all and they were never low in the first place. More likely is that Munster will battle their way towards a QF place as usual, but battle is what they will have to do as there will be no easy games here. Their form in the Celtic league will be a major concern though as only Borders have had a worse start to the season.
As well as fortress Thomond Munster have a number of decent players in their ranks although the feeling is that the spirit and teamwork are the major players here. Having internationals such as Paul O'Connel, Jerry Flannery, Donnacha O'Callaghan, David Wallace and John Hayes in the pack does them no harm. Stringer and O'Gara continue in their often maligned but seemingly effective half-back partnership and have a number of forwards masquerading as backs outside them such as Trevor Halsted. Why run round when you can run through?

Prediction 2nd. Signs of creaking already this season. Munster raised themselves to epic levels last year but repeating that will be twice as hard. Too many banana-skins here and they may not have the wit to outplay Leicester if bashing through the middle fails to work.

Leicester
Not many clubs have a better european record than Leicester. Back-to-back winners in 2000/01 and 2001/02 and more often than not finding their way into the latter stages. In recent years they have not made the most of their opportunities, last years defeat at home to Bath in the QF can best be described as pathetic. Leicester are playing well enough in the Premiership and have used a large number of players so far, which either means they don't know what their first-team is or they are working on creating a large squad. The latter is a sensible move as injuries are always likely to play a part and fringe players are going to be needed at some stage. Few teams go to Welford road and come away with a result while Leicester's ferocious pack alway give them a chance of picking up points away.
The addition of Marco Castrogiovanni to the front-row means Leicester have a scummage of some power with Julian White on the other side. The tight-five will always cause problems with Chuter, Deacon, Cullen and Kay involved as well while the back-row has plenty of power: Corry, Moody, Tuilagi and others. It's Leicester's back-line that sometimes let them down. Pedestrian at times but when they fire Leicester are formidable: Ellis and Goode tend to be the problem lacking the invention to break down tough defences but when Leicester play to their game-plan the two half-backs suit it perfectly. Gibson is very important in the centres as he provides the vision to set the backs free, while Ollie Smith is perfect foil outside him. The back-three is a similar problem to the half-backs: good for the most part but occasionally hopeless. Murphy, Varndell, Lloyd and Vesty all capable of having stinkers.

Prediction 1st. This could be the tightest group of all at the top as Leicester are well capable of beating Munster at their own game. Their clashes may not be the most expansive but will certainly be high on drama. Leicester to nick it as they may just want it that little bit more this season.

Later on?
The toughness of this group suggests that a home QF final is going to be a difficult proposition so the teams will have their work cut out to go all the way this year. Both Munster and Leicester could qualify and that may be good to see.

Heineken Cup - Group 3

2006-10-19T16:17:00.000+01:00

Calvisano 1000/1
Ospreys 6/1
Sale 11/8
Stade Francais evens

Calvisano
Oh dear. They could have found themselves in an easier group. This is going to be a monumental task for Calvisano with 3 top teams to play. The visit of the Ospreys will be the only game they can conceivably win and even that will be very tough. Their other games are against two of the best sides in europe so Calvisano are going to have to put this year down to experience. The last time they won a game was in 2002/03 and have drawn a blank 3 times on the trot since so it will be no surprise if they are winless again this year. They have a good excuse this time around though.
Players: Paul Griffen and Aaron Persicco are the only players of note and they are hardly world-beaters.

Prediction 4th. Can hardly be anywhere else. Avoiding wallopings against Stade and Sale will be a result.

Ospreys
A team that appears to be moving in the right direction at the moment and in another group they could be worth the 50/1 on the outright market. As it is it will be a massive effort for the Ospreys to get out of their group and an even tougher task to get a very neccessary home quarter-final. In their 3 years in the competition the Neath-Swansea Ospreys have won 6 out of 18 games and have yet to qualify for the knockout stages. But there is a general feeling of optimism around the Ospreys at the moment with some tidy performances and some good young players coming through. Unfortunately they need to get results against Stade Francais and Sale which is not going to be easy.
The player roster is not too shabby: Welsh internationals such as Brent Cockbain, Shane Williams, Johnathan Thomas, Adam Jones and Duncan Jones, Sonny Parker and Gavin Henson will help their cause and young James Hook looks to join them very soon. Ryan Jones is probably the best of all the Welsh player although his fitness seems to be a problem. Just doesn't seem to be enough depth of quality though despite Justin Marshall, Jason Spice and Stephan Terblanche joining the Welsh players. On paper the best of the Welsh clubs but an evil draw looks likely to scupper their chances.

Prediction: 3rd. Heading in the right direction or not the Ospreys are no match for Sale and Stade Francais and will be despearately hoping for a better group next year. 6/1 to win this group is a horrible price although it would probably be a good price for them in most other groups. Shame to see them go but will probably provide plenty of entertainment.

Sale
I really feel Sale are going to be a force this year. Unfortunately they have found themselves in a very nasty group and will do well to get a home QF out of this one. Sale could well beat the Ospreys twice and find themselves strongly placed but Stade Francais are a big club playing very well, getting the better of them over two legs will be very hard. Maybe the match-up of the group stages here. Sale have only become a force over the last few years under the guidance of Phillipe Saint-Andre so have no history of success in this competition. Last year they made it through to the quarter-finals and lost out to Biarritz at San Sebastien. Not a poor performance but the English champions will be expecting more this year.
They have the talent to back it up: Andrew Sheridan, Andy Titterall, Chris Jones, Magnus Lund, Charlie Hodgson, Mark Cueto and Jason Robinson have England caps to their names. Sebastien Bruno, Sebastien Chabal, Jason White, two Argentines called Lobbe, Elvis Seviali'i, Mark Taylor and Oriol Ripol add more international experience to the team. Sale have a squad to beat anyone and seem to have better balance than many other teams.

Prediction: 2nd. Could certainly be first although one way or another the importnant home QF is going to be hard to attain.

Stade Francais
Europe's form team at the moment leading the top14 after 10 wins from 11 games. Not bad at all and their Heineken cup pedigree is pretty good as well. Finalists in 2000/01 and 2004/05 but they have yet to win the tournament. Their shock defeat away to the Ospreys last year in the first round of matches prevented them qualifying and Stade will be desperate to right these wrongs. No QF for the Parisiens again is almost inconcievable. One thing they will be happy to avoid is a trip to Ireland at any stage in the competition as their record there is very poor.
Stade are not one of the French triumverate of perpetual winners by accident. Their resources are enormous in rugby terms and their second team could do some damge in most groups. Pieter De Villiers, Christophe Dominici, Brian Liebenberg, Sylvian Marconnet, Remy Martin and David Skrela are some of the more important French players but their foreign imports are probably more impressive: Radike Samo, Mauro and Mirco Bergamasco, Sergio Parisse, Augustin Pichot, Rodrigo Roncero and Ignacio Corleto.

Prediction: 1st. Must keep their concentration to beat the Ospreys this time but look to have a slight edge over Sale and should find themselves in the QFs this year. Away to Munster will be the Parisien nightmare.

After that?
Both Sale and Stade Francais have the talent to go all the way. Whether they will have enough group points to get a home QF is debateable as this is a very tough group. Bonus point wins over Calvisano and Ospreys will be very important. Both teams are capable of winning away in the QFs but it hardly helps their chances.

Heineken Cup - Group 2

2006-10-18T15:44:00.000+01:00

Leinster 5/4
Gloucester 11/8
Agen 12/1
Edinburgh 22/1

Edinburgh
The best Scottish team have occasionaly pulled off some excellent results. Beating Toulouse 2 years ago has to go down as one of their best ever moments and last year they got off to a similar start with a one point victory over Wasps. Edinburgh don't tend to embarass themsleves but neither do they ever look likely to qualify. They could have picked a worse group, but not by much. Home games will be targetted as they are capable of winning all three in theory, but it seems unlikely they will get an away win unless they start off at their usual pace in Agen.
There is talent at Edinburgh: Mike Blair is one of the best scrum-halves around, Marcus Di Rollo is improving, Chris Patterson is key. And then there is Hugo Southwell and Scott Murray as well. Teams are not going to quake in their boots when they see Edinburgh's team sheet but they will know they are in for a game in the Scottish capital.
Prediction: 4th. Third is a genuine possibility but it's hard to see Leinster and Gloucester not dominating this group. A couple of wins will be a decent result this year.

Agen
Agen are not a big french team. They do not have massive resources but they have found enough to tempt players like Kees Meeuws and Rupeni Caucau over to the south of France. Unfortunately Caucau has gone awol yet again and Meeuws will miss the opening round at least. A good finish in last years top14 has not been followed up this campaign as Agen sit 9th after 11 rounds. Though Agen can be good on their day there is simply very little to get particularly impressed about. When Caucau is not around of course. They could certainly damage a few reputations at home but away games are likely to be very tough for them.

Prediction: 3rd. Seems very unlikely they can win 5 games to top the league and losing to Edinburgh seems quite possible.

Leinster
So much less success than rivals Munster, but so much more exciting to watch at times. Leinster exploded into life last year in the quarter-finals putting out Toulouse in one of the best games of the tournament. Unfortunately they then got walloped by a Munster side determined not to give the Leinster backs the same space. Leinster won their group 2 years ago and qualified second last year. Both times they have failed to reach the final, going out against a team with a stronger pack of forwards. This has to be a major concern for the team in green: having the backs to put away chances gets them past lesser teams but they come unstuck when faced with a real battle. Gloucester will have learnt from Leinster's progress last year and will not make Toulouse's mistakes.
The list of players at Leinster is impressive. In the backs: Brian O'Driscoll, Shane Horgan, Gordon D'Arcy, Felipe Contepomi for instance. Players such as Malcom O'Kelly and Keith Gleeson populate the pack and Owen Finnegan's big Melon adds weight to their cause. But the front-row has creaked for some time and Leinster's back does not dominate in a way that a serious contender should.

Prediction: 2nd. Of course they could top their group and go through as top seeds but Gloucester are a very tough prospect. It may be a case of picking up enough points to go through as 7th or 8th seed

Gloucester
Not even involved in last years competition after falling in the play-off system Gloucester made amends by at least grabbing the silverware in the second-rate Euro cup. Hardly enough to keep the Shed-Heads quiet for too long although the threat of imminent nuclear explosion if sound levels got too high would be unlikely to stop most of them shouting. Gloucester are a big club and belong in the Heineken cup. Now they are here they have to make the most of it because a few wins is not going to please their fans (or shareholders). They qualified for the knock-outs in 2003/04 but were hammered by Wasps. In 2000/01 they defeated Cardiff in the QF only to be beaten by Leicester next round. And that's it - one semi-final for Gloucester in all their attempts. The good thing is that Gloucester have looked good this season and look to have the squad for a serious challenge.
And they have bought well: The tight-five ( a Gloucester invention if you believe what is said at Kingsholm) is finally up to the standards of yore, and this despite losing Phil Vickery to Wasps. Califano, Nieto, Collazo, Forster, Azam and Davies populate the front-row. Bortolami and Brown are a world-class second-row, and behind them is James Forrester, one of England's form players. That should guarantee some possesion and Richards, Lamb, Allen, Tindall, Simpson-Daniel, Balshaw, Morgan and others will be charged with using it. Add in unknowns such as Karl Pryce and the occasionally brilliant Willie Walker and Gloucester have both the team and the squad to go places. Just have to keep them fit.

Prediction: 1st. They are simply a better team than Leinster overall. Massive game away to Leinster to start with but they should be able to get 5 wins out of this group if injuries don't pile up to much.

And beyond?
Both Leinster and Gloucester are potential semi-finalists. With a home QF either team stands a chance and then they are just one game away from Twickenham, but Gloucester have the pack to go furthest. What is certain is that it would be good to see two qualifiers from this group as the entertainment value may drop in the QFs otherwise.

Heineken Cup Preview - Pool 1

2006-10-17T14:00:00.000+01:00

Heineken cup - Group 1

Wasps 6/5
Perpignan 5/4
Castres 14/1
Treviso 100/1

Group 1 is not the toughest group in the Heineken cup this year. These 4 teams have each contested both of the last two Heineken cups and have mustered 1 quarter-final appearance between them. This year one of these teams has a good chance of a home QF and there may even be two qualifiers.

Benneton Treviso
Not 100/1 outsiders for no reason. Treviso won 3 out of 6 pool games two years ago and appeared to herald the new dawn of Italian club rugby. Last year they lost all 6 games and returned Italian hopes to dust. Always one of the strongest Italian teams, it's their tenth year in the Heineken cup and they were super10 champions last year, but never likely to upset the apple-cart. Looking through their list of players it's hard to spot any big names. Marius Goosen?

Prediction: 4th. But they may win a game this year.

Castres
The seventh French team to qualify taking advantage of Biarritz's high finish to grab the extra spot. Castres have won just 4 of their last 12 games in the pool stages and have not progressed any further since 2001/2002. They hardly seem to be a team on the up - 7th last year and currently 11th in the top14.
They have a useful second-row partnership of Pascal Pape and Lionel Nallet, but very few other areas of strength. Gordon Ross at fly-half is not usually an indicator of quality.

Prediction: 3rd. Likely to be out of the running after 4 games and resting players as much as possible.

Perpignan
Topped their group last year but failed to get a home QF draw despite having the easiest group of all. Came third behind Newcastle and the Dragons the year before. They hand out some wallopings at home but often fail to do themselves justice away from home. 6 wins out of 11 puts them 6th in the top14 at the moment. 4 wins from 5 at home but only 2 from 6 away this year.
Perpignan have the likes of Julien Laharraugue, Andre Snyman, David Marty and Manny Edmonds in the back-line. Not many big names in the pack but they are a useful unit.

Prediction: 2nd. Of course they could explode into life this year but they need to improve on the road.

Wasps
A poor year all-round for the Wasps last year. 2 wins and a draw in their pool last year repeated their early exit as holders the year before (albeit in an evil group) where they managed 3 wins. Early signs are good though - Wasps are playing well in the Premiership winning all but one game (away to Bristol). Two years away from the knockout stages is a long time for the Wasps but it has to be said that they have had very poor luck in their pools. This year a glorious opportunity has presented itself and it would be unusual for Wasps not to take it.
Injuries will always play a part but this year Wasps look better player-wise: Phil Vickery and Lawrence Dallaglio are back from injury to provide experience along with Simon Shaw, but it's the youngsters who are playing well at the moment. Tom Palmer adds an extra-dimension to the second-row and Tom Rees is turning into a class act at 7. In the backs a fair bit of muscle combines with an agressive defence to make Wasps a tough team to play. Easily the most important factor is the fitness of Josh Lewsey.

Prediction: 1st. No excuses this time. Away to Perpignan in round 2 is the only game they can be excused for losing.

And after that?
Either Perpignan or Wasps will be tough to beat at home in a quarter-final. Failing to get that home berth would most likely see them drop out. Hard to see either team make the final but a semi is not out of the reckoning for Wasps.

Weekend results round-up 15/10/06

2006-10-17T11:50:00.000+01:00

Guinness Premiership

Worcester 24-33 Gloucester Rugby
Northampton 10-15 Leicester Tigers
Bristol 33-20 NEC Harlequins
London Irish 14-31 Sale Sharks
London Wasps 35-15 Newcastle
Saracens 55-23 Bath

Bristol remain top while Worcester and Harlequins completely failed to help themselves away from the bottom.

Magners Celtic League

Connacht 16-9 Dragons
Ospreys 26-9 Glasgow Warriors
Munster 10-21 Edinburgh Gunners
Border Reivers 22-19 Leinster
Ulster 32-12 Cardiff Blues

Ulster sit at the top with Llanelli well poised below them. Borders stay bottom but are getting closer to Munster who appear to have forgotten how to win.

French Top 14

Agen 6-13 Perpignan
Castres 16-19 Albi
Montpellier 19-17 Montauban
Paris 22-16 Biarritz
Narbonne 20-23 Bourgoin
Bayonne 9-20 Toulouse
Clermont 44-3 Brive

Stade Francais are now 11 points clear of Clermont in second place. Toulouse are a further point back and Biarritz are now 16 points behind the leader.

Air New Zealand cup

Auckland 15-30 Wellington
Waikato 44-15 Otago

Which means Wellington have to go to Hamilton for the final. Lucky them. Good to see a tournament not dominated by Canterbury and Auckland though.

Tipping comp after round 5

2006-10-15T19:17:00.000+01:00

Change at the top:

1st MWAP £586.38
2nd Rugbyman £540.91
3rd Boxman £512.44
4th RugbyNut £505.47
5th Big Dunc £491.99
6th Furelli £310.59
7th Uncle Jam £163.64
8th Ruck and Roll £76.41
9th Vickersa £49.42
10th The Man £42.72
11th Jambojack £40.00
12th Db2 £25.00
13th Ace Rothstein £19.91
=14th Alex Hammond -£209.09
=14th Oo R Ya -£209.09

Weekly profit of £1069.11 (+28.1%)
Overall profit of £2946.70 (+18.65%)

Premiership Tipping Comp Round 5

2006-10-13T11:51:00.000+01:00

1 game on Friday, 1 on Saturday, 4 on Sunday.

Worcester 5/2, Gloucester 2/5
Handicap: Gloucester -7.5

Northampton 15/8, Leicester 8/15
Handicap: Leicester -5.5

Wasps 1/8, Newcastle 13/2
Handicap: Wasps -14.5

Bristol 4/11, Harlequins 11/4
Handicap: Bristol -8.5

London Irish 6/4, Sale 8/13
Handicap: Sale -4.5

Saracens 8/13, Bath 13/8
Handicap: Saracens -4.5

All handicaps 10/11 both sides.
Level stakes £100 on each selection, pick as many or as few as you wish.
Minimun tips = 30 over the entire Premiership season.

Weekend results round-up 08/10/06

2006-10-09T10:09:00.000+01:00

French Top 14

Bourgoin 22-28 Clermont
Brive 22-15 Castres
Albi 15-9 Montpellier
Bayonne 19-15 Agen
Montauban 15-9 Paris
Biarritz 25-10 Perpignan
Toulouse 40-34 Narbonne

Stade Francais 12 points clear of Clermont and Toulouse, Biarritz a further point back.

Magners League

Connacht 17-24 Ulster
Glasgow 25-0 Borders
Leinster 27-20 Munster

Ulster and Llanelli top with Leinster closing the gap. Munster still second from bottom

Air Newzealand cup

Wellington 36-23 Canterbury
Auckland 46-14 Bay of Plenty
Waikato 24-12 Southland
North Harbour 21-56 Otago

Auckland v Wellington and Waikato v Otago are the semis

Weekend results round-up 1/10/06

2006-10-01T20:48:00.000+01:00

Magners League

Connacht 16-31 Leinster
Edinburgh 14-9 Glasgow Warriors
Munster 21-13 Ulster

Llanelli stay top with Ulster second and Edinburgh third.

French Top14

Clermont 46-9 Toulouse
Montpellier 12-17 Brive
Stade Francais 25-12 Albi
Perpignan 13-18 Montauban
Agen 20-18 Biarritz
Castres 18-16 Bourgoin
Narbonne 25-12 Bayonne

Stade Francais go 15 points clear as Biarritz drop to 4th. Clermont are level on points with Toulouse.

Air NZ cup

Canterbury 27-22 Auckland
Otago 14-21 Wellington
Waikato 31-15 North Harbour

Quarter-finals now decided: Waikato v Southland, Auckland v Bay of Plenty, North Harbour v Otago, Wellington v Canterbury. A real bum draw for Wellington but the other three home teams at least should go through.

EFD mickey mouse cup

Who cares?

More French Rugby

2006-09-29T20:03:00.000+01:00

With a round of fixtures played last Friday and Saturday you may think the French players would have six or seven days rest before taking the field again. Think again. There was another round of fixtures on Tuesday!

Narbonne 33-18 Agen
Bayonne 24-13 Clermont
Albi 16-7 Perpignan
Montauban 19-13 Biarritz
Brive 6-21 Stade Francais
Bourgoin 25-3 Montpellier
Toulouse 35-3 Castres

So now Stade Francais are 11 points clear of Toulouse, 13 clear of Biarritz and the big 3 are back in the top 3 places so we can all breathe a huge sigh of relief.

Why are there more draws in Rugby Union than Rugby League?

2006-09-27T11:57:00.000+01:00

Article by Alex Hammond

Backing the draw in Rugby Union can be lucrative for those who have plenty of patience, my three personal highlights being the 2005 Heineken Cup final, Lions v Argentina in Cardiff and London Irish v Gloucester in last season’s Euro Challenge Cup final.
However, Rugby League draw backers would be paupers in comparison it seems, a draw in that code being rarer than Andy Robinson talking sense at England selection meetings.
On the face of it League's scoring system of 2,4, and 6 (we'll cover Stevo’s fetish later) seems to lend itself perfectly to more drawn games, yet the harsh reality of the 2006 Super League reveals only one game ending with scores tied over the course of the 168 match regular season.
In any Guinness Premiership season you would expect 6 or 7 draws. We’ve had two already this time round even though we’re only 4 weeks into the contest.
So how can we make sense of this? No better way than to ask a few of the lads over on the rugby forum, making sure of course this didn’t end up in the playground debate about my game being better than yours.
Some thought provoking feedback emerged:
Rugbyman immediately made reference to the scurge of many a union game, the bloody awful weather that seems to decimate half our season. Scoring certainly drops off in the winter months and if teams aren’t getting the points on the board, you’re going to get more level games.
Overall RM feels that the Guinness Premiership is a lot tighter than Super League, with the top team in the GP winning around 70% of games, the second bottom winning around 35%. Over in SL, the top teams wins about 80% and the second bottom around 25%.
Thus looking at this in handicap terms, top v bottom in GP would be closer than top v bottom in SL. Closer handicapped games in the Guinness Premiership should mean we get more draws on average.
Albion took the above point further by suggesting RL has more blow-outs than RU. Seems a good point. Can we back this up with some facts? Indeed we can. 20 points looks like a good beating in either code, so I’ll use that as my definition of a blow-out.
GP season 2005/06 had 16 of the 132 regular season games ending with a team winning by 20 points or more. This is 12% of the games played.
SL season 2006 saw a huge 57 of the 168 games end in a team losing by at least 20 points. That represents 34% of the games played.
That is a massive difference in one measure of the closeness of games between the two codes and is certainly something I will need to think about more when betting on RL, particularly handicaps.
RM went on further to add that in Union the ball can be dead for a lot of the time. This is a point I concur with and those of you who watch recordings of games on your Sky+ will certainly agree it takes much longer to watch a SL match than a GP match if you forward through the dead stuff.
Furthermore, RM also acknowledges that in union the ball can be tied up in the forwards for long periods during those "up the jumpers" moments, especially in the winter. Time is also lost for constant re-setting of scrums and dodgy handling leads to yet more scrums and more delays. My added view is that penalties also abound in Union and waste more time, especially if a goal attempt results. League penalties are much more likely to result in a kick to touch then a tap and run. Overall League is a more open game in these respects.
Finally, League has the glorious one-pointer. Andy Capper posted on the forum that this is of much greater significance than a drop in Union and I have to agree. Of course in Union, there are two ways of getting three points. The draw busting drop in League can only be equalised by the same happening at the other end. Close to the end of a game, it is a particularly potent weapon and teams can get into position for an attempt fairly easily.
A recent classic in drop-goal terms from League came only last week in the Leeds v Warrington play-off match. At 17 all for almost 10 minutes, (both teams already having one drop each), it looked to be a rare pay day for RL draw backers. However both sides were trying to make sure this didn’t happen. Leeds missed a further attempt, then Briers has one charged down before he finally clinched it to the sound of Stevo back in the studio pulling the end off his knob
In conclusion then, what starts off on paper as a promising theory, namely that the scoring sequence of RL should lead to more draws than RU, ends in the opposite being true. Many factors are at work to make RU games closer: the weather; top and bottom of league closer in RU; less blow-outs in Union, play more open in League and ball in play longer; drop goals much more potent in League.
In pricing terms, anybody getting 20/1 or more the draw on every GP game over the course of a season should end in profit. In the Super League, I’d really want at least double that before having a play. I often find the best trick is to wait until in-running. Then you can really get some juicy draw prices on your Union games.

AH

(A great deal of sense and with little effort from myself. More of the same please - RM)

Hooray! The return of the Anglo-Welsh (Mickey Mouse) cup.

2006-09-25T15:22:00.000+01:00

Yes it's the time of year we have all been desperately waiting for. The return of the Anglo-Welsh cup: a stupid invention if ever there was one. We have the Heineken cup to entertain us with the highest quality club rugby in the northern hemisphere. Then we have the Guinness Premiership with 132 games of rugby between England's top 12 teams. That's plenty of club rugby for me, with more internationals than ever dotted throughout they year, my rugby watching needs are fulfilled by this schedule.
Of course there is one problem with this schedule: on weeks with internationals we still have Guinness Premiership games. Four weeks in Autumn and five weeks in spring are set aside for international matches and all the top players head away from the Premiership during this period missing up to seven games of the regular season as a result. It devalues the competition of course but then it is a very busy season and we all understand that sacrifices must be made.
But then five weeks into the season we pause in our enjoyment of Premiership rugby and watch the same teams playing each other, but with four Welsh teams thrown in.

So instead of seeing the best players playing each week in the Premiership, a tournament where you are judged over a long season of 22 games, we see our favourite stars turning up for a tournament that means little. It is of a similar standard to the Premiership, but shorter and easier to win as a result. What makes it much easier for clubs who are desperate for silverware is that half of the teams in the competition realise it is a waste of time and put out second-strings. Sale refused to take any serious part in the cup last year and ended up winning the Premiership! (Bet they rued that decision).
To qualify for the semi-finals you have to top a group of four. For teams such as Bristol or Newcastle or Harlequins, with small squads and some important players that they are desperate to protect from injury, the temptation to give up before it's started must be huge. Why risk players that you need to ensure your survival in the Premiership (and therefore your financial future) in a tournament you have little chance of winning. Meanwhile the teams involved in the Heineken cup have simialr concerns. The Heineken cup is lucrative and success to any degree is great for finances and club pride. To not qualify for the Premiership play-offs will be a tragedy for Wasps, Leicester, Sale or Gloucester and so they will wish to concentrate on achieving this before concerning themselves with other tournaments.

So who will give their all? Leicester and Wasps put in plenty of effort last year and Wasps came away with the trophy. Yet it was a poor season for Wasps. They scraped into the Premiership play-offs but where out-classed by Sale and in the Heineken cup they sunk without trace. How many players at that succesful club will look back with pride at their season? Not many I think.
This year I can see Bath having a crack at the tournament as the Heineken cup is not a possibility. Bath are good enough to win five games in this competition and may have the motivation. Maybe Saracens will give it a go. The big teams have big squads and resting five to ten players wont rule them out.
Of course some teams may take a different approach and put out strong teams. The problem is we can't be sure who will and if any will. This is what makes the tournament ridiculous. At no point in the Premiership would any coach decide to rest half his team unless he was utterly convinced they would still win, and woe betide him if he is wrong. In the Anglo-Welsh cup it is always a possibilty, especially when a team can no longer qualify. And the most annoying thing is that this tournament is covered on the BBC while we have to suffer SKY's lucky dip approach to rugby coverage for our Premieship viewing.

So if we have to have this tripe clogging up our season can we please have it played at a time when we have something good to watch instead. i.e. on international weekends!

The schedule for those who need it:

Group matches
29 september - 1st October
6th, 7th, 8th October
1st, 2nd, 3rd December

Semi-finals
24th March

Final
15th April

Weekend results round-up 24/09/06

2006-09-24T21:34:00.000+01:00

Guinness Premiership

Sale 34-26 Saracens
Newcastle 21-26 London Irish
Bath 17-11 Worcester
Gloucester 28-7 Northampton
Harlequins 15-21 Leicester
Bristol 26-21 Wasps

Bristol are top! And everyone thought they would come bottom (except me obviously). Long way to go yet and Gloucester sit two points back alongside Wasps. Quins and Worcester still bottom.

Magners League

Connacht 22-22 Edinburgh
Cardiff 27-9 Glasgow
Borders 8-20 Dragons
Ulster 43-7 Ospreys
Llanelli 33-21 Leinster

Llanelli Scarlets are top, Ulster four points back but with a game in hand. Borders are bottom but it's Munster just above them.

French League

Agen 13-9 Montauban
Clermont 43-0 Narbonne
Perpignan 24-13 Brive
Biarritz 20-6 Albi
Montpellier 9-9 Toulouse
Paris 41-27 Bourgoin
Castres 39-15 Bayonne

All of which means that Stade Francais are 10 points clear of Biarritz and Perpignan.
Clermont and Toulouse are a further 2 points back.

Air New Zealand cup

Top 6
Waikato 37-21 Wellington
Auckland 48-7 Otago
Canterbury 17-21 North Harbour

rep a
Bay of Plenty 35-7 Hawke’s Bay
Counties Manukau 25-25 Manawatu

rep b
Southland 20-17 Taranaki
Tasman 56-15 Northland

Which means, I think, that Auckland, Waikato and North Harbour have secured themselves home quarter-finals. Southland and Bay of Plenty look good to be given the impossible task of trying to beat two of these teams away from home.

Tipping comp after round 4

2006-09-24T17:48:00.000+01:00

1st Rugbyman £540.91
2nd Boxman £423.63
3rd MWAP £393.93
4th RugbyNut £262.11
5th Furelli £230.82
6th db2 £225
7th Big Dunc £208.63
8th The Man £42.72
9th Ace Rothstein £31.05
10th Uncle Jam -£18.18
11th Vickersa -£93.94
12th Ruck and Roll -£100
13th AH -£-109.09
14th Oo R Ya -£200

Weekly profit of £327.25 (8%)
Overall profit of £1827.59 (13.1%)

Who is that handsome fella storming clear at this early stage?

Premiership tipping comp round 4

2006-09-22T17:37:00.000+01:00

Two games tonight, three tomorrow, one on sunday

Sale 1/4, Saracens 4/1
Handicap: Sale -11.5

Newcastle evens, London Irish evens

Bath 1/4, Worcester 4/1
Handicap: Bath -10.5

Gloucester 4/11, Northampton 11/4
Handicap: Gloucester -8.5

Harlequins 11/4, Leicester 4/11
Handicap: Leicester -8.5

Bristol 7/4, Wasps 4/7
Handicap: Wasps -4.5

All handicaps 10/11 both sides.
Level stakes £100 on each selection, pick as many or as few as you wish.
Minimun tips = 30 over the entire Premiership season.

The Air New Zealand cup -

2006-09-20T16:35:00.001+01:00

So the question: How do you organise a tournament involving 14 teams?

The answer: First of all split into two groups of seven, make each team play the other teams in their group once, put the top 3 in each group through to a top 6, split the remaining 8 into two groups, make the top 6 play games against the three teams that they have yet to play, tot up their points from these games with the games they played earlier against the other teams in the top 6, meanwhile make the teams in the two other groups play against each other, the winner of these two groups goes forward into the quater-finals as bottom seeds, the team with the most points in the top 6 is seeded number 1 and the least is seeded number 6, all these teams are placed in the quarter-finals with the top 4 getting home draws and the usual top versus bottom seeds system applying, the winners go on to play in semi-finals and the winners of these games going on to the final.

I'm glad that's all cleared up!

Right now the top 6 looks like this:

28 Auckland
27 N Harbour
26 Waikato
25 Wellington
24 Canterbury
23 Otago

Bay of Plenty or Hawkes Bay and Southland or Northland are the likely qualifiers from the 'repecharges'. This hardly matters though as whichever of these teams makes it through they will be up against the top 2 teams from the top 6 away from home. Therefore unlikely to go any further.

There are two more rounds to go before the quarter-finals are reached.

This week:
Waikato v Wellington
Auckland v Otago
Canterbury v N.Harbour

next week:
Otago v Wellington
Canterbury v Auckland
Waikato v N.Harbour

Which basically means anything could happen. Can't help thinking that Canterbury will be there at the end though.

Weekend results round-up 17/09/06

2006-09-18T23:49:00.000+01:00

Guinness Premiership

Worcester 13-25 Sale
Northampton 33-18 Bath
Leicester 27-27 Gloucester
London Irish 11-23 Bristol
Wasps 42-23 Harlequins
Saracens 44-20 Newcastle

Wasps go top from Bristol and Gloucester. Worcester and Harlequins bottom.

Celtic League

Dragons 22-23 Llanelli
Ospreys 18-16 Cardiff Blues
Connacht 15-17 Llanelli
Ospreys 30-13 Borders
Glasgow 24-13 Munster
Edinburgh 20-15 Ulster
Leinster 16-9 Cardiff Blues

Llanelli and the Ospreys are taking advantage of the weakened Irish sides by sitting at the top. Borders have failed to grasp this policy and sit bottom with no liklehood of change there.

French Top 14

Brive 14-21 Biarritz
Narbonne 39-17 Castres
Albi 12-10 Montauban
Clermont 20-3 Agen
Bourgoin 22-3 Perpignan
Toulouse 12-16 Stade Francais
Bayonne 25-20 Montpellier

Stade francais have now scooted 9 points clear of Toulouse and Biarritz in the worlds most predictable top 3. Bayonne are still bottom despite winning and Brive are in the other relegation spot.

Tipping comp after round 3

2006-09-17T17:56:00.000+01:00

Another draw meaning a few more voided bets. Getting a bit tight at the top now.

1st Furelli £480.83
2nd Boxman £433.03
3rd Rugbyman £404.55
4th MWAP £266.96
5th RugbyNut £185.14
6th The Man £43.32
7th Ace Rothstein £33.33
8th Vickersa £24.24
9th Big Dunc £20.40
10th db2 -£18.18
11th Uncle Jam -£118.18
12th AH -£134.09
13th Oo R Ya -£200

Overall profit of 1421.35. (18%)
Weekly profit of 168.83. (5.5%)

Going pretty well at the moment lads. More than half of us showing profits. Another 19 weekends like these and we have proof that the bookies can be beaten.

Tipping comp round 3

2006-09-15T13:25:00.000+01:00

One game tonight, 3 tomorrow and 2 on Sunday

Worcester 11/4, Sale 4/11
Handicap: Sale -8.5

Northampton 8/11, Bath 5/4
Handicap: Northampton -2.5

London Irish 1/3, Bristol 11/4
Handicap: Irish -9.5

Leicester 1/2, Gloucester 15/8
Handicap: Leicester -6.5

Saracens 1/3, Newcastle 11/4
Handicap: Saracens -9.5

Wasps 1/6, Harlequins 6/1
Handicap: Wasps -13.5

All handicaps 10/11 both sides.
Level stakes £100 on each selection, pick as many or as few as you wish.
Minimun tips = 30 over the entire Premiership season.

RugbyMan's poker exploits

2006-09-13T17:34:00.000+01:00

Well first of all I am no great poker player. Playing $10 buy-in tournaments is about my level and I tend to go for the one table - (10 players) sit-and-goes as I find that playing tight for 30 minutes often puts you into the last 4 or 5 without having to do anything. I worked out a while ago that I make around £2 per hour playing poker so I wont be chucking it all in to go professional any time soon. However.......

Having had a few near misses in tournaments of 300+ people coming 2oth (in the money) and 43rd (just outside) and always getting into the last third without too much drama, I stumped up the massive $11 for a seat in a 218 player tournament. I sat quietly during the first hour folding almost everything and just playing massive hands in order to survive whilst simultaneously selling all I own on ebay to pay my enormous overheads (entry fee, tea and biscuits). As usual a whole cartload of nutters went flying out of the tournament in the first hour trying to beat 9 other people with 8-9 offsuits and the like. By the first break we were down to 106 and I was about halfway down the list with $2107 (not actual money, you are given $1500 from the start).

An hour and a bit later I was on my 3rd brew and we were down to 33 players. I was still not going anywhere fast, sitting in 27th position with $3100 (against an average stack of nearly $10000). Undeterred I soldiered on, taking few risks until I hit the payout position of 20th. This I achieved with the help of a brief run of good cards.

This next hour until the last break was a combination of patience and moderate fortune. My own hands were generally nothing special and big pairs were sadly lacking. Fortunately the cowboy tendencies of numerous other players was rapidly reducing the numbers and before I knew it I was on the last table in 5th position. At no point in the whole tournament (over 200 hands) had I had to go all-in with less than three-of-a-kind. I did shove the stack in a couple of times having hit great flops and was fortunate to get callers. Normally I am chronically short-stacked and ploughing my chips in with mediocre hands at this point. This tournament was notable for the fact that I did not at any point have over an 85% chance of winning the hand busted on the river.

On the penultimate table I sat near the chip-leader and refused to take him on without a massive hand. Others were not so cautious and I believe he busted out well over half of the last 20 players. Suddenly I was in the last 4 and was feeling pretty impressed with my patience. This was the longest I had ever played poker without making a monumental blunder. My armpits were getting pretty sweaty though and I realised that the toilet was too far from my computer. After the 6th cuppa of the day I started to wonder if it was wise to live on PG tips and nerves for over 3 hours. Next time I will use chocolate and beer.

Down to the last 4 I had guaranteed myself $170 and was sitting with about $50,000 in chips against two equally placed players and the permanent chip-leader on over £150,000. "Just keep playing sensibly" I told myself as my tea-stained fingers clutched the mouse in a savage death-grip. It's a good thing you can't see other people over the internet as the sight of me crushing the mouse and glaring barbarically at the screen, eyebrows pushing against each other so hard I thought my nose may have to be jettisoned, may have required attention from a tournament referee. An admonishment, maybe, to look less evil in future. My dramatically powerful concentration was unnecessary though as I folded all of the next three hands while the chip-leader got lucky and wiped out both other players in consecutive hands.

Result!! Now all I had to do was deal with the problem of playing heads-up with a good player who had 5 times my stack. I fought my way to the 3rd break and declined to make another cup of tea this time. Collecting my thoughts I went back to the table after 5 minutes peace and promptly lost my remaining chip getting my 7-high straight beaten by an 8-high straight. Nuts, but I was beaten by a better player and 2nd out of 218 aint bad for an average player.

$425 dollars was the prize for coming 2nd and I welcomed it with open arms and empty pockets. If only every day was like this. (Actually for health reasons once or twice a week will suffice). Now I must go out and get some fresh air as I think my mind has melted. A bit of good old-fashioned carbon-dioxide should sort that out as I cycle down the road putting my life in the hands of mothers in land rovers (or people carriers) who have forgotten that their vehicles are wider than the road and that doing make-up, talking on the mobile and driving a two ton vehicle is pushing the multi-tasking thing a bit too far. School buses should be made compulsary for all children who do not walk to school, just wait until I am King..........

Will Andy Farrell make it?

2006-09-12T14:00:00.000+01:00

I hope so. Playing your first game of rugby union over a year after your last match in rugby league is not an ideal way to go about things and Farrell is now 31 years of age. Bearing in mind the amount of time it generally takes for converts to properly adapt to the new code it is hard to believe Farrell will become much of a force in union. Jason Robinson could be described as "raw" for quite a while after his move and it took him two years to start kicking the ball forwards rather than sideways. Tuqiri gets the same epithet for a similar period of time while Wendall Sailor gets the more simplistic description of "sh*te" for his attempts to learn the game (and he is still confused about the rules now). Henry Paul meanwhile didn't seem to have much trouble with the concept of union, but being bothered to play to full potential is a different matter entirely.

But then Matt Rogers was different wasn't he? Rogers is one of those rare talents that doesn't have to work too hard to adapt to anything. He still took some time but I think the way he was handled by the ARU and his constant injuries slowed him down much more than any need to adapt. He is still getting shuffled around the back-line now and even Stephen Larkham seems to want him to settle into the 10 shirt.

If any British rugby league player of the last 10 years is likely to surprise people with his ability to make a fluent transition from one code to the other it has to be Andy Farrell. A natural leader and excellent ball player with a large but mobile frame, yet his main asset has to be his mind.

The trouble is he has just one season to adapt enough to become a world-class back-rower and though his mind is strong it can't do much if the body gives up. Any longer than a year and his inclusion in England squads post-world-cup would be pointless due to his age. It has to be by September next year and that is a great deal of pressure to place on the shoulders of any man. And it has to be the back-row (where England actually have a good deal of quality despite the recent appearance of no such thing) as he is too old to play centre. Probably. But don't be surprised if that stance is turned on it's head. Both Saracens and England could do with a star at 12 rather than at 6. Had injuries not prevented his playing last year I believe that centre was a much more likely prospect.

Stay clear of injuries and I strongly believe that Andy Farrell will become part of England's squad for next year's world-cup. But what chance he will stay clear of injuries for an entire year?

Weekend results round up 10/09/06

2006-09-10T22:09:00.000+01:00

Guinness Premiership

London Wasps 23-17 London Irish

Newcastle Falcons 20-19 Worcester Warriors

Bath 43-25 Leicester Tigers
Gloucester 31-21 Harlequins
Sale Sharks 32-20 Northampton Saints
Bristol 13-13 Saracens

Wasps and Gloucester top the league followed by Bristol and then Bath.
Worcester and Harlequins prop up the table with a point each.

Celtic League

Connacht 15-10 Ospreys
Edinburgh 20-14 Leinster
Llanelli 31-17 Glasgow
Munster 9-8 Borders
Ulster 32-25 Dragons

Ulster top the league with Connacht surprisingly their closest rivals.

Borders and Glasgow sit at the bottom with a point each.

Top 14

Castres 13-9 Clermont

Montauban 21-20 Brive

Montpellier 33-10 Narbonne

Perpignan 30-17 Toulouse

Stade Francais 48-29 Bayonne

Biarritz 12-6 Bourgoin

Agen 32-3 Albi

Stade Francais go 6 points clear at the top after Toulouse's loss at Perpignan.

The top 4 are now the 4 biggest teams in France while Bayonne are bottom without a poitn to their name.

Air New Zealand Cup

group A

Bay of Plenty 20-16 Taranaki

North Harbour 28-6 Manawatu

Wellington 39-25 Tasman Makos

group B

Canterbury 32-16 Counties Manukau

Southland 15-11 Hawkes Bay

Waikato 42-21 Northland

A very predictable look to the top 6 who go on to play in some bizarrely contrived mini-league before quater-finals appear. Auckland, North Harbour, Wellington, Canterbury, Waikato, Otago are the teams.

Tipping comp after round 2

2006-09-10T17:05:00.000+01:00

With the draw in the Bristol game leading to the contentious decision to void all tips on the outright odds for the match the table now looks like this (with 5 bets voided):

1st Furelli £664.16
2nd Rugbyman £322.73
3rd Boxman £269.39
4th MWAP £185.14
5th The Man £143.32
6th RugbyNut £94.23
7th Vickersa £90.91
8th Big Dunc £1.82
9th AH -£9.09
10th db2 -£109.09
11th Uncle Jam -£200
12th Oo R Ya -£200

Think that's it. Furelli with 9 from 9 with one void. Big Dunc and Manwithaplan making strides and Boxman getting a little too close for comfort in the battle for second.

As a whole we are £1253.52 up at the moment. Thats a 26.1% profit.

Tipping comp round 2

2006-09-08T14:41:00.000+01:00

Friday night games this weekend so we have the odds up a little earlier:

Wasps 4/11, Irish 11/4.
Handicap: Wasps -7.5

Newcastle 2/5, Worcester 5/2
Handicap: Newcastle -7.5

Sale 1/5, Northampton 9/2
Handicap: Sale -12.5

Bath 11/8, Leicester 4/6
Handicap: Leicester -3.5

Harlequins 11/8, Gloucester 4/6
Handicap: Gloucester -3.5

Bristol 5/6, Saracens 6/5
Handicap: Bristol -2.5

All handicaps 10/11 both sides.

Level stakes £100 on each selection, pick as many or as few as you wish. Minimun tips = 30 over the entire Premiership season.

Jonno Gibbes and the farce of the summer

2006-09-07T15:23:00.000+01:00

So what happened was the Ospreys approached Gibbes, talks were held, Gibbes signed a contract (apparently) then trundled off to play for the Maoris. It must have here that he realised that Wales is wet and miserable a lot of the time. Returning to the lush, warm pastureland of the Waikato region Gibbes thought "nut's to this, I'm going to pretend I never went to Wales and will stay here instead". Well who can blame him, I like Wales, it's a great change of scenery from the dull flatlands of the home counties, but it doesn't compare to New Zealand in terms of beauty or weather.

But the Ospreys say he has signed the papers and is an Ospreys player from January 2007. If that is the case then mr Gibbes is a very silly boy indeed as he has also signed for Waikato for the next two years. This means he is either going to break all existing records for commuting to work, or lawyers will be involved. I suspect the latter. This certainly does not raise my opinion of Gibbes' intelligence - if you are not 100% then don't sign anything. After a calamitous spring for Welsh rugby it seems hardly surprising that they are involved in another balls-up though.

This story has another chapter or two to go, if Gibbes signed the papers the Ospreys surely have legal rights, however I doubt too many people want him to turn up after these shennanigans so it seems unlikely he will play in Wales. The Ospreys call is likely to be along the lines of "our pride is hurt, give us money" while the NZ response will probably be the usual one of "sod off, we make our own rules, you can't make us, nah nah nah!".

Weekend results round-up

2006-09-03T22:26:00.000+01:00

Guinness Premiership

London Irish 20 - 19 Harlequins
Gloucester 24 - 19 Bath
Worcetser 11 - 41 Bristol
Saracens 19 - 21 Wasps
Northampton 25 - 23 Newcastle
Leicester 35 - 23 Sale

Celtic League

Cardiff Blues 22 - 13 Munster
Borders 15 - 29 Connact
Glasgow 23 - 24 Dragons
Ospreys 17 - 11 Edinburgh
Ulster 31 - 16 Llanelli

NPC

Group A
Auckland 23 - 3 North Harbour
Tasman Makos 17 - 23 Bay of plenty
Manawatu 3 - 11 Wellington

Group B
Canterbury 22 - 17 Otago
Hawkes Bay 23 - 42 Waikato
Counties Manukau 29 - 8 Southland

French Top14

Bayonne 9 - 20 Perpignan
Brive 6 - 3 Albi
Castres 31 - 26 Agen
Toulouse 20 - 3 Biarritz
Bourgoin 35 - 22 Montauban
Narbonne 24 - 33 Paris
Clermont 55 - 7 Montpellier

Tipping comp after week 1

2006-09-03T17:54:00.000+01:00

1st Furelli +£258.18. 4 from 4
2nd Rugbyman +£231.82. 3 from 3
3rd The Man +£86.36. 2 from 2
4th Boxman +£81.82. 2 from 3
5th Rugbynut +£66.66. 1 from 1
6th DB2 -£9.09. 1 from 2
6th Alex Hammond -£9.09. 1 from 2
8th Manwithaplan -£63.64. 1 from 2
9th UncleJam -£100.00. 0 from 1
9th BigDunc £-100.00. o from 1
11th Oo R Ya -£200.00. o from 1

Impressive stuff then from Furelli, although his two bets on the match odds both crept home in the last minutes. Notify me of any mistakes. I think it's all correct and not only that there are fewer typos in this post. Getting the hang of this now.

Tipping competition after 1st day

2006-09-02T18:17:00.000+01:00

Here are the standings after day 1:

1st Rugbyman +£231.82. 3 from 3
2nd Furelli +£221.82. 3 from 3
3rd Boxman +£181.82. 2 from 2
4th The Man +£50. 1 from 1
5th DB2 -£9.09 1 from 2
6th Oo R Ya -£200 0 from 2

I think that is all correct. Fire away if I have anything wrong.
Comiserations to Oo R Ya for picking too winning teams who just failed to make the handicap. Congratulations to me for doing better than all of last season put together. If only I had put some cash on! Good work all round though - profit of £476.36 as a whole.

2 more games tomorrow:
Northampton 4/11, Newcastle 11/4
Handicap: Northampton - 8.5, 10/11 each side

Leicester 4/6, Sale 6/4
Handicap: Leicester -3.5, 10/11 each side

I will be leaving these two despite thinking Sale could be worth the 7/4 available at Sporting Odds. Furelli has Saints at 11/4.

All newcomers welcome. Plenty of time to catch up.

Guinness Premiership tipping competition

2006-09-02T11:59:00.000+01:00

So with a new season and 132 games ahead of us it seems about time we had a competition to see who is the best Premiership tipster around.

The rules are simple:
1. I will publish the best prices (match and handicap) available on the weekends matches a few hours before the first game. Selections will be made at these prices only.
2. Over the course of the season you must make a total of 30 selections or more.
3. Everything will be worked out from level stakes, an arbitrary figure of £100 per selection, regardless of the price.
4. Selections should be cleary stated in the comments section at the bottom of the weekly "tipping competition" entry (i.e. this one). Selections made after kick-off time will be discarded.
5. I will publish a league table at the end of each weekend. (There will be no relegation for coming last because I will want to play again next year)
6. The winner at the end of the season may recieve tickets to the Guinness Premiership final if there is a decent enough response. He(she?) will also recieve a great deal of praise and adulation. A Heineken cup and a Six-Nations tipping competition is likely to follow and there will be an overall winner as well. Which is nice.

Week 1

London Irish 2/5, Harlequins 5/2.
Handicap: Irish -7.5, 10/11 each side

Saracens 9/4, Wasps 4/9.
Handicap: Wasps -7.5, 10/11 each side

Gloucester 1/2, Bath 2/1.
Handicap: Gloucester -6.5, 10/11 each side

Worcester 4/9, Bristol 9/5
Handicap: Worcester -6.5, 10/11 each side

Northampton 4/11, Newcastle 11/4
Handicap: Northampton - 8.5, 10/11 each side

Leicester 4/6, Sale 6/4
Handicap: Leicester -3.5, 10/11 each side

Guinness Premiership 2006/07 preview

2006-08-31T12:07:00.000+01:00

As the major publications only ever seem to make half-arsed attempts at previewing the Premiership it falls to amateurs such as myself to put their (lack of) reputation on the line and suffer the inevitable ridicule when it all goes wrong.
So this is how the Premiership will pan out. If it doesn't happen this way it is all because of unforseen circumstances way beyond my control. By Christmas I will have a list of people who I can blame my lack of accuracy on.
Read on.......(but cancel any appointments over the next few hours first).

1st
Sale

The Guv'nor: Phillipe Saint-Andre
Captain: Jason Robinson

Reasons to be cheerful: Sale were without doubt the best team last season so the title needs to be taken from them by a superior force. Sale have imported well over the close-season and look that bit stronger than last year. Saint-Andre's coaching has never suggested anything other than a high degree of competence and Sale look strong from 1 to 15 and beyond.

And on the down side: Erm.... well the big Argie named Lobbe has the occasional attack of 'the punches' which may occasionally result in red spots in front of the eyes. Sale will, like all of the top teams (except Irish), be without their internationals for around 7 games of the season. Valentin Courrent has left but then Sale are not lacking for quality in his position. In fact they don't lack for quality anywhere so let's move on

Incoming: Chris Bell and Andrew Vilk and strength to what could have been an area of concern (the centres). Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe is just one player despite his multitude of monickers but should serve as able back-up in the back-row. Lee Thomas, John Bryant and Ben Evans may play a part as well.

Goodbye to: a few players who may have hovered around the outskirts of the first team, Courrent and Taione foremost among them.

Strengths: Strong throughout, but the back-row and back-three probably shine the brightest

Overall: It's a long hard season and Sale may find the international weekends challenging, but so will their main contenders and it's difficult to see anyone else raising their level above Sale if the northerners reproduce last season's form.

2nd
Gloucester

The Guv'nor: Dean Ryan
Captain: Peter Buxton

Reason's to be cheerful: Gloucester are a mighty rugby area with large, and very vocal, support. Kingsholm is certainly not a place I would want to play unless I was wearing a cherry and white shirt. After a few years of under-performing and fiddling around it is now beginning to look like Gloucester are firmly set on a course that will take them towards silverware. Their summer signings have been of a high quality indeed and the young players breaking into the first-team compliment the big-names superbly.

And on the down side: As yet they haven't really done much, unless you count scraping home in the European B-tournament last year. Often flatter to deceive but now that perennial under-achievers such as Henry Paul have moved on maybe Gloucester will be able to fulfil their potential.

Incoming: Marco Bortolami is the signing of the season in my view. A genuinely world-class- lock forward to replace the generally absent Quinton Davids. The already strong-looking front-row now boasts the big-names (and bigger shorts) of Carlos Nieto and Christian Califano (legend). Stick that in your pipe and smoke it Leicester, the front-row honours may be changing hands this year. Added to this Ian Balshaw escapes the sinking ship at Leeds in order to spend time on the physio’s table amongst different scenery and the curious signing of Willie Walker may have an impact. For those of you not au fait with super12 Walker played at fly-half or full-back for the Highlanders a few yeas back before heading for Japan. Talented he is but consistent.....maybe not.

Goodbye to: Phil Vickery. A massive loss if he was likely to play all season but Vickery has seen his best and is now hanging on to a career that looks to peter out in an unfortunate manner. (For once I hope I am proved wrong here.) Terry Fanaloua moves on now that his position at Gloucester is likely to be filled my others, sevens genius Simon Amor's struggles to find form at XV a side continue at Wasps and McCrae, Paul and Garvey have disappeared as well, but they were unlikely to play anyway.

Strengths: That almighty front-row in six parts - Califano, Collazo, Nieto, Forster, Azam and Davies. The Kingsholm faithful love a good scrap up-front and these boys are sure to make Gloucester the victors more often than not. And the second-row of Bortolami and Brown looks good. Then there is Allen and Tindall in the midfield, Richards and Lamb at half-back or the young but promising back-three (+Balshaw).

Overall: Can they stop Sale? Probably not but I feel that Gloucester are the team on the up and will come closer than Leicester and Wasps who both appear to be treading-water these days.

3rd
Leicester

The Guv'nor: Pat Howard
Captain: Martin Corry

Reasons to be cheerful: Well Leicester are the biggest team in England are they not. Their bank balance is always healthy, they have plenty of big-names, the highest average attendance and a host of other things going there way. Always tough and uncompromising up-front and not lacking for flair behind the pack. Almost always victorious at Welford road. What more can you want?

And on the down side: There doesn't appear to be a great deal of growth at Leicester these days, not making signings other than to cover the gaps made by departures. They will of course claim that the personnel at the club are already fully capable and may well be correct but it hasn't worked for the last 54 season as they have been trophy-less throughout.

Incoming: Martin Castrogiovanni bolsters a front-row that appears to be producing grey hairs at an alarming rate and Jordan Crane adds a fresh alternative to the perennially tired legs of Martin Corry.

Goodbye to: A few players who are either a bit long in the tooth or were going nowhere fast. Graham Rowntree remains but is unlikely to play too many games.

Strengths: The Leicester pack is always going to rumble it's way into contention. A very combative back-row adds even more grunt to the already big enough tight-five. At best Leicester have an all-international back-line as good as any in club rugby (bar Toulouse).

Overall: Leicester will be there or thereabouts and will look to get some silverware by whatever means this season. If Gibson and Rabeni stay fit for the majority of the season then Leicester may well top the league, but without them the 7 or so games where they are devoid of internationals (and therefore most of the first-team) will be a struggle, and maybe a telling one.

4th
Wasps

The Guv'nor: Ian McGeechan
Captain: Lawrence Dallaglio

Reasons to be cheerful: First of all Wasps are the most successful side of the last 5 years, winning 3 of the last 4 grand-finals. Though many people disapprove of the play-off system none of them are Wasps fans who have been transformed from perennial nearly-men to champions by the genius idea of some genius in a suit. Forgetting the fact that everyone hates them and that they are called London Wasps but don't play in London, there is no getting round the fact that success breeds success and the Wasps will always figure at the business end.

And on the down side: Last year they lost Warren Gatland, the Kiwi mastermind who bought success to High Wycombe, and Ian McGeechan may be a bloody nice fella and Shaun Edwards a great League coach, but under their tutelage Wasps slumped to 4th place. This left the rugby world scratching it's head as a team other than Wasps had to finish 2nd. Worst of all the quasi-Londoners failed to reach the Twickenham final and were left to mull over a season which had brought home only the dubious honour of the Powergen Cup (also known as the Anglo-Welsh thingy that nobody cares about). League positions don't lie, Wasps are on the slide.

Incoming: Phil Vickery is the biggest name to arrive at the Causeway stadium and may occasionally join his new team-mates on the pitch when his back isn't playing up. Tom Palmer is a good signing from Leeds and a necessary one too. Simon Amor and Dave Walder may or may not add life to the back-line depending on the weather conditions, which side of bed they got up on, how thick was their porridge etc,.

Goodbye to: Matt Dawson. How much he actually did in his last season is open to debate but High Wycombe will be a quieter place these days. Amazingly Stuart Abbott leaves title-hopefuls Wasps for new-boys Harlequins. Maybe he missed the bright lights of the big city or maybe Harlequins got out a fat wad of cash but either way it's a big loss for the Wasps. A few more players leaving Wasps shaky front-row and the exciting looking Thom Evans jumps ship as well.

Strengths: Not the front-row which may or may not have improved depending on Vickery's fitness, but the second-row looks better for Palmer's arrival. The back-row is an interesting mix of brute force, more brute force, and a nippy Irish lad, but this well-capable trio will be missing during internationals and Wasps will do well to get many points without them. Josh Lewsey is a strength all on his own and looks so much fresher already. Quality in the back-line but probably not enough. Biggest strength is that they know how to win, biggest worry is that their older players may be losing their memories.

Overall: Four of the mainstays of the Wasps pack have seen better days and you just can't help thinking so have Wasps. A tough task ahead for McGeechan to turn Wasps around and point them in the right direction again. But the ability is still there and Wasps will be a force again. However I don't see them having the strength in depth to seriously challenge for the title. Their eyes may be fixed on London Irish coming up behind them rather than Sale just ahead.

5th
London Irish

The Guv'nor: Brian Smith
Captain: Mike Catt

Reasons to be cheerful: Plenty in this column, 14 wins in the league last year are all plusses after so many wrote them off as the usual bunch of misfiring misfits. Biggest plus for Irish has to be their away form which was bizarrely out of sync with the usual win at home, struggle away format. Irish played a fascinating brand of attacking rugby that was refreshing to watch. they rode their luck at times and got woefully caught out at others, but the season was a success and there is pleny of encouragement for Irish fans.

And on the down side: Attacking play can always backfire at times and the 40-8 walloping by Leicester was a low-point for the Exiles at the end of the season. When the going got tough Irish went home, but now they have been near the top they may have got a taste for it.

Incoming: James Hudson couldn't get a look in at Bath when Grewcock and Borthwick were around but his appearance in an England shirt facing the Barbarians was testament to his ability. Seilala Mapasua adds more competition in the centres and his hard-running and slick moves may go down a treat at the Madejski.

Goodbye to: Stalwart Ryan Strudwick departs along with Rodd Penney, Ross Laidlaw, Paul Gustard, Paul Franze, Matt Banahan and Kieran Dawson plus a few more. Not good for squad depth but then Irish are not generally encumbered by a exodus of players every time there are internationals to be played.

Strengths: Irish are strong in every department and exceptional in none. Most players are theoretically available all season and there is large supply of 'pace', 'flair' and 'verve' throughout the squad.

Overall: Really there is no reason why London Irish can not continue their form from last year and at least usurp Wasps from 4th. The worry is that the Heineken cup may stretch their resources a little and teams will better know how to counter the London Irish style this season.

6th
Bath

The Guv'nor: Mark Bakewell
Captain: Steve Borthwick

Reasons to be cheerful: Not a great deal for Bath fans to celebrate last year. Beating Gloucester away despite being a man down for over half the game was certainly a high point but chances of winning anything were restricted to a shock Heineken cup run that included one of the most boring quarter-finals in the history of rugby.

And on the downside: Well Bath were rubbish until Ashton turned up, then they were good, then Ashton left. It must be infuriating to be a Bath fan with such a good pack of forwards grinding out very few actual victories.

Incoming: Now here is the good news for Bath - Shaun Berne returns to Britain in order to add creativity to Bath's backline, something that was horribly absent for most of last season. One inside centre doesn't make a back-line though so Bath have signed big, strong, quick rugby league star Chev Walker. How well he will adapt to Union is a question that will be tough to answer, Bath fans will hope for the "Tuqiri-approach" rather than the "Sailor-formula", but he looks just right for a number 13 in Bath's backline.

Goodbye to: James Hudson first of all, a loss on international weekends for sure. Lee Best and Salesi Finau may be missed as well.

Strengths: A front-row including Matt Stevens, Lee Mears, Duncan Bell and a few others of quality is always going to cause problems. Then there's the best second-row in the league (sorry Gloucester) of Borthwick and Grewcock who have had some time off this summer, while the back-row isn't bad at all with Delve, Lipman, Beattie and Feaunati.

Overall: It all depends on how the new coaches adapt. With Ashton in control I would happily have placed Bath in the top 6, but I do so now with a little bit of trepidation. The new centres should be firing by the end of the season and it's no act of genius to suggest that the centres were Bath's biggest problem area last year. To much quality to see Bath near the bottom, and too much history to believe such a thing possible.

7th
Saracens

The Guv'nor: Dean Gaffney
Captain: Hugh Vyvyan

Reasons to be cheerful: Very obviously Richard Hill's return to action can only be a good thing. He's no spring chicken but there has been no better player in his position worldwide for a decade or so. Also Andy Farrell may actually play a game or two and it's difficult to see him not making some sort of impact. At their best last season Saracens could beat Biarritz.

And on the downside: After that high point in the Heineken cup Saracens slumped dramatically in the league and could have finished bottom but for a late revival and the appalling performances of Leeds tykes. Saracens were basically rubbish and there can't be much more of a downside than that!

Incoming: A strong side has always been at Saracens disposal but they have yet to do anything with it. Along with Hill and Farrell returning Saracens will also have the excellent Italian hooker Fabio Ongaro adding beef to the front-row along with big Samoan Census Johnson. A trio of interesting arrivals from London Irish add depth to the sometimes flimsy squad and a couple of south-sea islanders appear at lock and centre respectively. How good are they? Who knows.

Goodbye to: Mark Barthloemeuz is a big loss and Steffon Armitage an odd one. Kyran Bracken and Taine Randell both finally retire after showing their age last year.

Strengths: That front-row is looking tasty (or it could feed a small nation for a week at least). Cobus Visagie is central to Saracens success next year and the new back-row combination will have a lot to say as well. Elsewhere Saracens will need their mercurial French full-back on top form and Glen Jackson to steady the sometimes wavering backline.

Overall: Always difficult to know what to expect with Saracens, but if their main players stay off the physio's table there could be a top-half finish at least for the men in black. Lose most of the names mentioned above for too long and it will be a fight for survival.

8th
Bristol

Gaffer: Richard Hill
Captain: Matt Salter

Reasons to be cheerful: A controversial choice to have Bristol out of immediate danger but there are 3 good reasons for Bristol fans to smile, though they will have to wait until November to hold up their hands and rejoice. Signing three players on the cusp of international recognition in New Zealand can hardly be a bad move and I expect Bristol's woeful try-scoring ratio to be aided by these handy acquisitions. Also Richard Hill is an excellent coach and the main reason for cheerfulness at Bristol must be a second season in the Premiership.

And on the downside: Coming 11th out of 12 is rarely an indicator of big things but now they have survived the first hurdle Bristol will be looking to build. They need to score tries to do this though and they may need some non-geriatric front-rowers sooner or later as well.

Incoming: First of all David Hill. Had he been born in Chipping Sodbury the England selectors would be falling over themselves to get this man in a white shirt, but alas, he wears the black, and much less frequently than his talents deserve. then there is Neil Brew whose strong running in the midfield will surely get Bristol over the line more often and Sean Hohneck is another Kiwi lock who looks a bit skinny but has excellent hands and big lungs. Another aging prop comes in to add "experience" to a well-travelled bunch of rugby nutters.

Goodbye to: Nobody that they can not afford to lose.

Strengths: That aging front-row had to perform last year to give Bristol a chance and perform they did. Mark Regan is key as always. Pairing Hill and Brew in the centre will ask a whole load of questions of Premiership defences this year.

Overall: OK it could all go wrong for Bristol. the foundations aren't that strong that they can just sign some Kiwis and waltz up the league, but I genuinely believe that the continuity Richard Hill provides and the signings they have made will propel them past whichever teams flatter to deceive this year.

9th
Northampton

The Guv'nor: Budge Poutney
Captain: Bruce Reihana

Reasons to be cheerful: Well Saints fans could look to past glories, for instance their 3rd place finishes in 2002 and 2003. They will surely take comfort in seeing Mark Robinson wearing 9 and Carlos Spencer wearing 10 most weekends. They also seem to have a hell of a lot of support and a decent cash-flow, which is wonderful.........if you own shares.

And on the downside: When the wind got up in ol' blighty last year Northampton's pack felleth over. Failing to make any particularly promising signings is not going to help them either and Saints had the worst form in the whole league during international weekends. Losing three players apparently crippled them.

Incoming: Erm.... A big Tongan prop forward, a Argentine hooker and the third choice scrum-half at Harlequins. Not inspiring when last year it was bendy-legged, super-trickster Carlos Spencer.

Goodbye to: Some decent squad players and an under-achieving South African lock.

Strengths: The front-row is the one area of improvement last year, though I think they could have achieved that by getting some girls to play. Those half-backs are pretty nifty and there are some big names outside them, but they need the ball to play.

Overall: "Forwards win games, backs decide the margin". Alright the Northampton pack isn't that bad, but frankly Saints fans deserved a lot more than they were given last year. If the forwards can win some games Northampton will find the point's difference column growing exponentially, but I wouldn't count on much when you see the improvements in other tight-fives this year. There is a worrying possibility of meltdown at Northampton.

10th
Harlequins

The Guv'nor: Dean Richards
Captain: Paul Volley?

Reasons to be cheerful: Being in the Premiership? That should make Quins fans happy for a while but they are a demanding bunch and will probably start moaning if not at the top at Christmas. A canter through League 1 last year proved little but there is a strong feeling that Quins can do some damage this year.

And on the downside: Let's face it Quins probably wont finish in the top half. It's far from impossible but Richards will want to survive first and then move on from there. They are 2nd or 3rd favourites for the drop and a tough season awaits.

Incoming: Where to start - Stuart Abbott is a great signing and his partnership with Luscombe in the centres will be crucial. Mehrtens was already there a year early but Danny Care's year as understudy to Justin Marshall may add zip to the half-back area. Paul Volley has seen a fair bit of the world and he will be a big factor in Quins season, and what about young David Strettle? An absolute star on the sevens circuit, is he going to run in tries a-plenty for Quins or will he turn out to be Ben Gollings in disguise.

Goodbye to: Will Greenwood and Tony Diprose who have decided against a return to the Premiership and have opted instead for sitting in studios and waxing lyrical about the lads they used to play with no doubt.

Strengths: Sheer enthusiasm is generally a trait of the promoted team and few of the Quins players will want to face Dean Richards after having a stinker. The playmaking axis of Mehrtens and Abbott looks special.

Overall: Worcester came ninth two seasons ago and Bristol were eleventh last season so history says they should survive. Quins probably have more stars than the two teams mentioned above and a stronger squad so they should stay safe. The backs should be able to do damage if the forwards produce enough ball.

11th
Worcester

The Guv'nor: John Brain
Captain: Pat Sanderson

Reasons to be cheerful: Supposedly you get into the Premiership, consolidate and grow. It's a lovely theory and has worked so far for Worcester. Now they are supposed to kick-on and begin to challenge for honours. Unfortunately I can't see this happening. Worcester have a solid pack, a solid fan-base, solid home form and a solid captain. And that's about it.

And on the downside: A distinct lack of flair in the backline is a good start. A failure to build this summer and bring in top notch players is the other. Worcester have made solid signings but solidity only gets you so far.

Incomings: Lee Best is a decent full-back and Marcel Garvey was once the next big thing on the wing. Maybe Miguel Avramovic will help them form an exciting back three. Stranger things have happened. Darren Morris lends experience to the front-row and Ben Gotting replaces Gavin Hickie. The two most interesting signings come from Wales: Ryan Powell steps into Andy Gommarsal's shoes at scrum-half and big Gavin Quinnel brings some family pedigree to Worcester's already sizeable pack.

Goodbye to: Nicholaus Le Roux who could brighten up a dark day with his silky runs from full-back. A number of nearly-men leave Worcester this season although Gommarsal will be tough to replace

Strengths: That big pack in front of that big home crowd. Nobody wants to play at Sixways on a Friday night or any other time come to that. Worcester will target the international weekends again but will be without Pat Sanderson unless Andy Robinson has another rush of blood to the head.

Overall: Maybe just enough all-round to keep their Premiership run going but they are hardly inspiring. Worcester have strong, vocal support and should be doing more to keep their fans happy. Their signings are all decent players but none are world-beaters and with the money flooding into rugby you have to spend just to stay afloat.

12th
Newcastle

The Guv'nor: John Fletcher
Captain: Matt Burke

Reasons to be cheerful: Having Matt Burke in your team is one reason to get excited, and of course the return of Johnny Wilkinson is another. Then there is the young stars of the backline such as Matt Tait, Anthony Elliot and Toby Flood. Not much to get excited about achievement-wise unless you look back to 1998 when they won the league. Since then it has been a procession of mediocre finishes.

And on the downside: Last year's big-name signings failed to perform so they have been offloaded along with a few other first-teamers, but replacements have yet to be seen. Newcastle's forwards were flimsy enough last year without needing to lose four or more pack members.

Incoming: Brent Wilson, John Rudd, Jason Oakes, Jon Golding. Somebody wake me up when it starts to get exciting.

Goodbye to: Owen Finnegan, Colin Charvis, Tino Paoletti, Stuart Grimes, Dave Walder, Luke Gross. Not all of the above performed as they could have but there is a lot of talent leaving Newcastle this season.

Strengths: Well a prodigious youth system is a good start, but can only get you so far. Newcastle's backline looks excellent from 9 to 15 with Wilkinson, Tait, Noon, Flood, Burke, Elliot and others providing plenty of pace and flair (and the ability to hoof the ball a mile in some cases).

Overall: Newcastle were mediocre last year and now they have lost a lot of big names as well as the coach who has guided them through a number of years in the top-flight. They have made no effort to replace these players and it confuses me just how they expect to compete this year. If the powers that be announce that the second-half of the season should become touch-rugby Newcastle will do well. But I doubt that will happen. Wilkinson will break his foot stepping into the shower or something similar and all of a sudden there will be panic. It will be a great shame to lose Newcastle as their home-grown policy is admirable........but not entirely sensible.

So that's that done for another year. Comment away and bear in mind anyone coming on in March telling me how badly I got it wrong is going to recieve few kind words. Tell me your own predictions now and you may recieve the 'RugbyMan award for Rugby genius' at the end of the season. (The prize will look suspiciously like a pint of ale).
I wont be doing a Celtic league preview because it took me long enough to do this.
There is another decent preview at www.scrumbag.tv

RugbyMan's blog up and running in time for the new season

2006-08-30T13:35:00.000+01:00

There are not a great many Blogs entirely devoted to rugby (and rugby betting) so hopefully this should fill the void. I do not see much point in having a blog with a load of news items that can be found elsewhere so this blog will focus on considered opinion and betting information. I will devote most of my time to internationals, Heineken cup and Guinness Premiership, but will also try to fit in a little bit about Super14, NPC, Celtic League and maybe even that Mickey Mouse European tournament that nobody cares about (the one with the teams who aren't good enough for the Heineken cup). I will mention the Powergen cup only to belittle it's worth. I may even attempt to comment on a bit of this Rugby League that I hear so much about, but don't count on any sense there.

So that's the plan. I may pour forth with some other nonsense as the mood takes me though I will try to make it more interesting than the standard "I got up, had some toast, felt a bit tired, went to get the paper" fare. For this reason most stories will either be wholly untrue or largely exaggerated.

A big hello to all readers from Aotearoa (that will be you Manu), and to anyone else who has mistakenly found this page and is rapidly punching the back button in order to escape.

Tomorrow should see the arrival of my Guinness Premiership review, late as usual, where I will be trying to outdo professional writers with my knowledge of rugby, command of the English language, ability to predict the outcome of a long season, and most of all my modesty. It is likely to garner praise such as "long-winded" and "heavy man".

Back tomorrow - RugbyMan